000 FXUS61 KAKQ 130426 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1226 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2008 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY...WITH A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... WIND ADVSRY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...ALTHOUGH AREAS IN HAMPTON ROADS WILL MOST LIKELY SEE SOME GUSTS TO 30-35KTS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. HAVE ALSO UPDATED POPS...MOST OF THE PRECIP HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA...ONLY EXCEPTION BEING THE TIDEWATER AREA DUE TO NORTH WINDS COMING DOWN THE BAY...CAUSING SCT RAIN ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO PASQUOTANK/CAMDEN COUNTIES. LOW TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR 40/LOW 40S OVER W AND NW AREAS...WHERE THE MOST CLEARING WILL OCCUR...WITH MID 40S TO ARND 50 ELSW. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W/NW TUESDAY AND HOLDS IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY. MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL BE A NICE CHANGE...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S TUE...AND UPR 60S/NEAR 70 AT COASTAL LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPS TUE NIGHT WILL BE LWR/MID 40S. WED MAX TEMPS EVEN WARMER THAN TUE WITH A GOOD SW FLOW...MID TO UPR 70S ACROSS THE CWA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES WED NIGHT THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE. JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AS THE FRONT LOOKS RATHER WEAK...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF SYSTEMS. CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGH TEMPS STILL IN THE MID/UPR 70S AS SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT KEEPS THE REGION WARM. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS A SERIES OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...FRI THRU SUN AS DETAILS (TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EACH WAVE/SYSTEM) HAVE YET TO EMERGE. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER BUT STILL CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES...HIGH TEMPS NEAR 70 TO LWR 70S...LOW TEMPS GENERALLY LOW TO MID 50S. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FARTHER INLAND. STILL WILL HAVE PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS ACRS THE FORECAST AREA... OCCASIONALLY REDUCED TO IFR IN RAIN. VSBYS VARY FROM IFR AT SBY EXTENDING DOWN TO PHF AND ORF WHERE THE MOST RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OCCURRING...WHILE VSBYS AT LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST HAVE REMAINED VFR. RIC WILL SEE THE QUICKEST IMPROVEMENT TO FULL VFR (CIGS AND VSBYS)...BY 02Z (10 PM). WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT COASTAL LOCATIONS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE AT ORF. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...BUT STILL EXPECT THEM TO BE BREEZY...GENERALLY OUT OF THE NNE. CLEARING AND DRY WEATHER FOR TUE THRU WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE W/NW WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... STM WRNGS DROPPED...WL CONT W/ GALES ALL AREAS INTO TUE. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... HAVE UPDATED CFWAKQ PRODUCT TO REFRESH TO CURRENT OBS. FOR THE BAY...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR SRN PORTIONS OF CHES BAY/HAMPTON ROADS OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY AFTN FOR NEXT 2 HIGH TIDE CYCLES (ALTHOUGH THE ERLY AM SHOULD BE THE WORST). STRG NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP TIDAL ANOMALIES AT LEAST 3 FT ABOVE NRML...BRINGING MODERATE (AT LEAST) FLOODING TO HAMPTON ROADS. ALSO ADDED PENINSULA TO WRNG AS ITS TOO CLOSE FOR COMFORT AT YORKTOWN W/ ANOMALIES 2.5 TO ALMOST 3 FT. COASTAL FLOOD ADSY CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT CYCLE (6AM) ON AREAS FARTHER NORTH ADJACENT TO THE BAY...ANOMALIES ARE ABOUT 1-1.5 FT. FOR THE COAST...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR VA BCH SWD TO THE OUTER BANKS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS STRG NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP TIDAL ANOMALIES AT LEAST 3 FT ABOVE NRML...BRINGING MODERATE/POTENTIALLY SEVERE FLOODING TO THESE AREAS. ON ERN SHORE...CSTL FLOOD WRNG CONTINUES THROUGH TUE AFTN AS WELL...WINDS NEVER REALLY TURN TO NW (STAYING ABOUT DUE NORTH). IF WINDS TURN A BIT MORE...MAY BE ABLE TO DROP AFTER NEXT TIDE CYCLE BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT IT UP THRU 6 PM. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ024- 025. HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ025. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021>023. NC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ102. HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ102. VA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ091- 094-095-098>100. HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ098. HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ099-100. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR VAZ075-077-078-084>086. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ630>633-650-652-654- 656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/JRL NEAR TERM...ALB/JYM SHORT TERM...JRL LONG TERM...JRL AVIATION...JRL MARINE...LKB TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LKB