000 FXUS61 KAKQ 040736 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 336 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2009 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY PUSHES OFFSHORE LATER TODAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES BY EARLY SUNDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT TO THE COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... BEAUTIFUL SETTING FOR OUTDOOR HOLIDAY/FAMILY ACTIVITIES TODAY. SUNNY SKIES TO START THE DAY OFF AS NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THIS MORNING. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS AFTN WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE RGN LATE...LEADING TO P/C SKIES TWRDS EVE. HIGHS TDY GENERALLY IN THE UPR 80S TO NEAR 90...XCPT LOW/MID 80S OVER THE ERN SHORE. MID LVLS START TO SATURATE LATE THIS EVE OVER THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA AS INITIAL WEAK SHRTWV MOVES OVERHD. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... GNRLY THINK MOST FIREWORK SHOWS AND EVENTS THIS EVE WILL BE ABLE TO OCCUR (ESP S/SE)...BUT THINK NRN THIRD INTO THE MD ERN SHORE COULD SEE SOME SHRA/ISOL TSRAS DVLP. SINCE PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL STILL EXIST IN THE BL...LOOK FOR ANYTHING THAT DOES REACH THE SFC AT FIRST TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT/STRATIFORM. CURRENTLY THINK BULK OF PRECIP WILL OCCUR AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE MID ATLC RGN AS AN ASSCD STRONGER SHRTWV RIDE SLOWLY E/SE INTO THE AREA FROM THE TN/OH VLY ON SUN LEADING TO MUCH COOLER AND DAMP CONDITIONS (LOW-MID 70S) TO OCCUR OVER THE NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH HAVE CHCS OF TSTMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOT SURE IF WE WILL SEE ANY SVR WX WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WEAK WRLY FLOW AT MID LVLS. BEST CHS FOR ANYTHING SVR WILL BE OVER THE FAR S (GNRLY NC ZONES). MAIN PRECIP SHIELD PUSHES SLOWLY NW/SE DURING THE AFTN/EVE HRS WITH A GENERAL SWATH OF A 0.25-0.50 INCHES OF RAIN. SINCE PWATS WILL RISE CLOSE TO 2 INCHES...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND STANDING WATER IN FAVORED LOW LYING AREAS. FCST SNDGS SUPPORT IDEA THAT DRY AIR STARTS TO FILTER INTO THE RGN FROM THE NW LATE EVE WHICH WILL MAKE FOR PRECIP TO BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT (--R/DZ). PRECIP LOOKS TO END AROUND MIDNIGHT NNW WHILE CONTINUE TILL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK FAR S ON MON. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE EXTENDED...AND WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF OVER THE GFS (WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE OUTLIER IN BRINGING AN ORGANIZED SFC LOW ACRS THE CAROLINAS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING. OVERALL THE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED TELECONNECTION PATTERN SUPPORTS A MORE SUPPRESSED SOLN...WITH POSSIBLY A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED BNDRY WELL TO OUR SOUTH...AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLC REGION. ALSO NOTE THAT THE GFS IS SUFFERING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...WITH STRONG VORT MAX INTO THE GULF COAST STATES BY WED LEADING TO THAT SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT INTO THE CAROLINAS. WILL FCST MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AKQ CWA...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG TUE/WED/THU...AND WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG FRI (AS THE HIGH TRACKS OFF THE COAST ALLOWING A RETURN SLY FLOW). && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ANY PCPN ASSCTD WITH TROF HAS MOVD OFFSHORE WITH ONLY SCT AC (ARND 10K FT) XPCTD AT ALL TAF SITES THRU 12Z. VFR XPCTD THRU FCST PRD WITH WNDS BCMG GNRLY LGHT AND VRBL (SPCLLY AT ORF) THRU DAYLIGHT HRS. WITH SYSTM QUICKLY APPRCHG FROM THE W...HAVE INTRODUCE ANTHR BKN DECK OF AC (AOA 12K FT) AFTR 00Z SUN. AREAS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE TS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES SUN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND ACROSS OUR AREA. LTST DATA SHOWING PSBL IFR CIGS AT RIC AND SBY WITH MVFR CNDTNS ACROSS SERN TAF SITES. A DRY PERIOD WITH MAINLY VFR CONDS RETURN FOR MON THROUGH WED. && .MARINE... NO FLAGS XPCTD THRU TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRS SLIDES E ACROSS WATERS. NW WNDS AOB 15 KTS THRU MOST OF THE DAY BECOME SW BY EVENING THEN S TONIGHT AHEAD OF APPRCHG SYSTM FROM THE W. LOW PRS PROGGED TO MOVE E ACROSS MID ATLNTC RGN SUN THEN OFF DELMARVA COAST SUN NITE AND MON. SRLY FLOW CONTS AHEAD OF SYSTM SUN WITH WND SPEEDS STILL BLO 20 KTS. FLOW BECOMES NRLY BEHIND SYSTM ONCE IT EXITS OFF THE COAST SUN NITE. WILL KEEP WND SPEED BLO SCA LVLS FOR NOW...BUT WUD NOT BE SURPRISED THAT SCA HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR NRLY SURGE BY 12Z MON. CALMER CNDTNS RETURN BY TUE AND WED. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CCW NEAR TERM...CCW SHORT TERM...CCW LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...MPR MARINE...MPR