000 FXUS61 KAKQ 080136 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 836 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2009 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH MORE TYPICAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (UPR 30S TO LOW 40S). && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... CLR-MO/CLR SKIES IN STORE FOR SUN AND MON AS A LARGE HIGH PRES SYSTEM HOLDS OVER THE RGN. MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S ALONG THE COAST TO LOWER 70S INLAND. LOWS IN THE LWR-MID 40S SUN NIGHT AND UPR 40S TO NEAR 50 MON NIGHT. NAM/GFS DIFFER ON OVERALL SOLN WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE BETWEEN TWO HIGH PRES SYSTEMS. HAVE WENT WITH THE SLWR SOLN LATER ON TUE. CURRENTLY HOLDING DRY CONDITIONS WITH ITS PASSAGE. HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE UPR 60S/LWR 70S FOR MOST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... FOLLOWED THE ECMWF SOLN THIS FCST PACKAGE. GFS NOT CONSISTENT IN ITS HANDLING OF SRN MSTR. CDFRNT MOVES OFFSHORE TUE NIGHT. WILL KEEP SLGHT CHC POPS IN FOR NOW (LOW CHC ACROSS NC CNTYS ALLOWING FOR ANY SRN MSTR THAT MAY MAKE IT THAT FAR N). FA MAY END UP IN THE "SPLIT" ZONE BTWN MSTR TO THE N & S. 1030+ MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO ERN CONUS FOR REST OF FCST PRD. P-GRDNT BTWN DEEPENING LOW OVR NEW ENGLAND AND THIS HIGH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN BREEZY TO WNDY CNDTNS AT THE COAST. DRY AND SEASONABLE CNDTNS XPCTD WITH A SLOW WRMUP BY NXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WED IN THE 50S...NR 60 THU AND INTO THE 60S FRI AND SAT. LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NO MAJOR CHANGES AS VFR WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. WITH HI PRES JUST OFF THE MID ATLC CST...EXPECT LGT S TO SW WNDS THROUGH SUN. COULD SEE MORE OF A SE COMPONENT ALNG CSTL TAF SITES SUN AFTN. A COLD FRONT MVS ACRS THE AREA TUE AFTN/EVNG BRINGING A SLGT CHC OF PCPN WITH IT. HI PRES BLDS INTO THE AREA FM THE W WED WITH DRY CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .MARINE... BOTH RUC/WRF INDCTG A SVRL HR PRD OF INCRSD WNDS (15-20KTS) ACROSS THE CHES BAY THIS EVE. SO AFTR COORD WITH LWX...DECIDED TO HOIST SCA HEADLINES ACROSS THE MIDDLE CHES BAY THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. WNDS THEN PROGGED TO DMNSH BY MORNING. ALSO, WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KTS ACROSS THE NRN COASTAL WATERS, AND SEAS HAVE REACHED 5.2 FT AT BUOY 09 AS OF 1Z. 18Z SWAN DID AN EXCELLANT JOB OF CATCHING THIS INCREASE IN SEAS OVR THE NRN TWO COASTAL ZONES, AND HAVE THUS RE-POPULATED SEAS WITH SWAN GUIDANCE AND HOISTED A SCA FOR OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRS BUILDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA SUN THRU TUE WITH WNDS AOB 15 KTS AND SEAS 2-4 FT. RETURN SRLY FLOW BEGINS TO INCRS A BIT TUE AHEAD OF NXT CDFRNT. THIS FRNT PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE NITE. WNDS SHFT INTO N-NW AND INCRS INTO SCA RANGE BY LATE TUE NITE. P-GRDNT BTWN DEEPENING LOW OVR THE NE AND 1030+MB HIGH BLDG E CUD RESULT IN LOW END GALES ACROSS THE CSTL WTRS BY ERLY WED. WILL CAP GUSTS AT 30 KTS FOR NOW. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-631-650- 652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CCW NEAR TERM...CCW SHORT TERM...CCW LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...AM MARINE...MPR/SMF