988 FXUS61 KAKQ 200200 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1000 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE FRIDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... DRY CONDS OVRNGT AS SFC HI PRES BLDS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND MID-LVL ENERGY PUSHES OFFSHORE. WILL MAINTAIN PRTLY CLDY SKIES WITH DECENT MOISTURE CONFINED BLO 700 MB. OTW...LGT ONSHORE FLOW AND LO TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... COOL SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOCATE ALONG THE NE COAST THURS...EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE SE COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE DEEP SOUTH WEDS NIGHT/THURS MORNING. THIS WILL HELP DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY THURS. MEANWHILE...ONSHORE E/SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL AREA. DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY MOSTLY CLEAR-PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL. HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY THURS...WITH FORECAST TEMPS REACHING ONLY INTO THE LOW 80S (~-1 STD DEV). TEMPS ALONG THE COAST WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY REACH INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S. BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE SE COAST. LATEST NAM/SREF GUIDANCE LIFT THE WAVE SLOWLY NWD FRI- SAT. HOWEVER...LATEST GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE IS MORE SUPPRESSED WITH THE WAVE...KEEPING THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND THE WAVE FARTHER OFFSHORE. NAM/SREF BRING MOISTURE/CLOUDS INTO NE NC/SE VA FRI INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS EXTENDING ONLY AS FAR NWD AS EXTREME ERN NC. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND BTWN THE MODELS...AND HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRI-SAT ACROSS EXTREME SE VA/NE NC. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ATTM (EVIDENT OF ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS) AS OVERALL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS NOT BEING HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS. OVERALL LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ALSO MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. TEMPS FRI-SAT WILL REBOUND INLAND TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS (MID/UPPER 80S) AS SLY WINDS RETURN. STILL COOL ALONG THE COAST (THANKS TO SELY WINDS) WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO LOW 80S ABOUT 50-60 MILES INLAND FROM THE OCEAN. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... PERIOD BEGINS WITH MAINLY QUIET/DRY CONDITIONS PATTERN IS EXPECTED SUN/MON...ONLY CAVEAT WOULD BE SOME WEAK SFC TROUGHING OFF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS INTO SUN. LATEST GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH ~590 DM RIDGE CENTERED ALONG/OFF THE SE COAST SUNDAY/MONDAY...WITH SOME SLIGHT HEIGHT FALLS TUE/WED AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO EASTERN CANADA (AND THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT MORE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME LEADING TO LOWER THAN AVG CONFIDENCE). WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS SUN OVER FAR SOUTHERN VA/NE NC GIVEN THE WEAK TROUGHING OFF TO THE SE OF THE AREA...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND W/ TEMPERATURES AVERAGING SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. INSTABILITY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS UPPER HEIGHTS FALL AND A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES PUSH INTO THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH. WILL CARRY DIURNAL 20% CHANCES FOR AFTN/EVENING TSTMS EACH DAY BUT WITH THE ONLY REAL TRIGGER BEING A LEE TROUGH AND WEAK SHORTWAVES (NO SFC FRONT) CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO GO ANY HIGHER THAN 20% WHICH IS CLOSE TO CLIMO FOR A 12-HR PERIOD. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE N. HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NNE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES ENOUGH FOR IFR FOG POTENTIAL AT SBY (AND TO A LESSER PROBABILITY MVFR FOG AT RIC) THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL THURSDAY AFTN AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE NC/SC COAST LATER IN THE WEEK. CURRENTLY...THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF CLOUDS OVERSPREADING SE VA/NE NC AS THE TROUGH/WEAK LOW ATTEMPTS TO NUDGE NORTHWARD ALONG WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF SHRA. && .MARINE... NE FLOW PREVAILS ACRS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CONDITIONS JUST SHY OF SCA CRITERIA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT FOR NOW WILL HAVE NO HEADLINES IN EFFECT...SEAS AVG 3-4 FT AND WAVES 1-2 FT IN THE BAY (2-3 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY). NAM REMAINS A LITTLE STRONGER/MORE OF AN OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW OFF THE NC/SC COAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI. IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY MAY NEED HEADLINES ACRS SOUTHERN WATERS FOR MARGINAL SCA (SEAS TO 5 FT). PATTERN WILL BE SLOW TO EVOLVE INTO THE WEEKEND...WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE ESE THEN THE SSE BY SAT NIGHT/SUN (AND SUBSIDE TO 10-15 KT OR LESS). && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NCZ102. VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR VAZ098. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ALB/SAM NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...SAM LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...AJZ/DAP MARINE...LKB