000 FXUS61 KAKQ 220525 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1225 AM EST SUN NOV 22 2009 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST...WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TO A POSITION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST UP THE EAST COAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC HI PRES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/WESTERN NY. TO THE SOUTH...DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE NOTED THIS EVENING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. ALOFT...UPR RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS HAS NOSED EAST INTO THE UPPER MS VLY. MEANWHILE...A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM UPR LOW WAS NOTED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION. OVERNIGHT... NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST...WITH ONLY SOME TWEAKS TO SKY/T GRIDS ATTM. SFC HIGH TO THE NW WILL SLIDE E TOWARDS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO SUN MORNING. DRY AND CHILLY TNGT WITH A GOOD DEAL OF HI CLDS PERSISTING...MAINTAINING MAINLY PARTLY CLDY CONDS. MIN TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 30S TO MID 40S...BUT AGAIN WL LKLY SEE SOME COOLER LOWS NW OF RIC AND OVER INTR SECTIONS OF THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... 12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF NOW IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE SHRT TERM WITH THE ONSET OF CSTL LO PCPN NOW DELAYED UNTIL SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND POPS ACCORDINGLY. SO...WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SOME OPAQUE SUNSHINE ALL AREAS DURING SUNDAY MORNING...W/CLDS INCREASING AND THICKENING FM S TO N FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUN AFTN INTO SUN NGT. MAX TEMPS ON SUN IN THE MID 50S TO LWR 60S. RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY FM S TO N LTR SUN NGT INTO MON MORNG...AS LO PRES MOVES TO JUST OFF THE SE CST. RAIN THEN LIKELY ALL AREAS DURING MON...AS THE LO TRACKS TO JUST ESE OF HAT. HIGHS ON MON RANGING THRU THE 50S TO LWR 60S. DIMINISHING RAIN CHCS FM SW TO NE MON NGT INTO TUE MORNG...AS THE LO TRACKS FARTHER AWAY TO THE ENE. DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMTS FM THIS SYSTEM...WITH QPF ARND .25 INCH MOST AREAS...POSSIBLY ARND .50 INCH CLSR TO THE CST. CLDY OR MSTLY CLDY TUE MORNG...THEN BECMG PRTLY SNY OVR AT LEAST SE VA AND NE NC TUE AFTN. MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... BY TUE NIGHT/WED...GFS/ECMWF SHOW RIDGING IN THE MID LVLS OFF THE EAST COAST...WITH A FAIRLY WEAK SFC PRESSURE PATTERN ACRS THE MID ATLC. NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR ANY PRECIP...BUT LOW LVL CLOUDINESS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SCOUR OUT. OVERALL WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY TUE NGT/WED...BRINGING IN 20% CHC FOR -RA FROM W TO E LATER WED/WED NGT....AS WEAK OVERRUNNING SCENARIO SETS UP. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY W/ THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AFTER THAT...GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TWDS EACH OTHER...DEVELOPING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SE COAST THANKSGIVING DAY...AND TRACKING IT OFF THE VA CAPES/MID ATLC COAST THU NGT/FRI. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN UPR LOW ENERGY REMAINS WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH. HAVE BUMPED FCST UP TO 30% CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER SE VA/NE NC (ALTHOUGH BULK OF PRECIP STAYS OFFSHORE OR TO THE SOUTH FOR NOW). FOR CNTRL VA...KEEPING POPS CAPPED IN 20% RANGE PER MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW. FLOW TURNS WESTERLY ON BOTH MODELS BY LATER THU NGT/FRI...AND SHOULD SEE DRIER AND COOLER WX FOR FRI/SAT. SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE POSITION OF THE UPR LOW...BUT WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW AS THE CONSENSUS IS FOR MAIN ENERGY TO STAY OVER THE NE CONUS. HIGH TEMPERATURES GNLY IN THE UPR 50S/LWR 60S WED/THU...COOLING TO THE MID/UPR 50S FRI...AND LWR/MID 50S SAT. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LWR 50S WED/THU...THEN 30S TO LWR 40S FRI/SAT. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR CNDTNS XPCTD THRU FCST PRD. XCPTN BEING SOME MVFR CNDTNS IN PTCHY FOG (3-4SM) THRU 12Z. HIGH/MID LVL CLDS (AOA 10K FT) INCRS THRU THE DAY SUN WITH SC DECK (BTWN 3-5K FT) OVRSPRDG RGN S-N AFTR 00Z AHEAD OF DVLPNG SYSTM ACROSS THE SRN STATES. MVFR CNDTNS LWR TO IFR AS LOW CLDS/RAIN AND FOG OVRSPRD RGN SUN NITE AND MON. MVFR CNDTNS CONT MON NITE INTO TUE ALONG WITH AREAS OF RAIN DRIZZLE AND FOG. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH VFR CONDS WED. ANTHR SYSTEM BRINGS A RETURN OF LWR CIGS AND A CHC FOR PCPN THU. && .MARINE... CNDTNS CONTINUE BELOW SCA LVLS THRU ERLY SUNDAY (MAINLY 10-15 KT ALTHOUGH A TAD STRONGER OVER THE SOUTH). CONDITIONS DETERIORATE ON SUNDAY...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES WELL OFF TO THE NE...AND LOW PRS ALONG THE SRN STATES MOVES SLOWLY NE LATE SUN INTO ERLY NXT WEEK. WITH THE PRS GRDNT PROGGED TO INCRS AFTR 18Z SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH HEADLINES FOR SCA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY ON S AND FOR THE CSTL WATERS (AS SEAS BUILD TO 5+ FT). NAM/GFS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT W/ THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYSTM (GFS HAS TRENDED SLOWER)...AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT A PERIOD OF AT LEAST 25 KT WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP FOR THE CSTL WATERS AND SRN BAY. CONCERNED WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH INTO NEW ENGLAND (BOTH NAM/GFS DEPICT 1035 MB+). EVEN THOUGH THE SFC LOW OFF THE CAROLIN AS IS ONLY PROGGED TO BE ARND 1015 MB...THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN TENDS TO YIELD STRONGER WINDS THAN THOSE PREDICTED BY THE MODELS. FOR NOW HAVE BUMPED WINDS TO A SOLID 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT ON THE COAST...AND GONE A BIT HIGHER THAN WAVE WATCH FOR SEAS (UP TO 9 FT OFFSHORE). MAY EVEN SEE A 3-6 HR PERIOD OF GALES ON MONDAY (BUT WILL STAY W/ SCA FOR NOW). WILL END THE SCA HEADLINES MON AFTN (AT THE END OF THE 4TH PROD)...ALTHOUGH LT ST WAVE WATCH HAS SEAS AA 5 FT THRU MIDWEEK W/ RESIDUAL SWELL. && .TIDES/CSTL FLOODING...TIDAL FLOODING NOT LOOKING TO BE MAJOR CONCERN AS ASTRONOMICAL VALES ARE FAIRLY LOW...BUT IF STRONGER WINDS PREVAIL AT LEAST MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY. STILL...THIS IS NOT A REAL SLOW SYSTEM (LIKE LAST WEEK) SO THE ANOMALIES WILL LIKELY ONLY BUILD TO 1-1.5 FEET. && .EQUIPMENT... NWR TRANSMITTER AT WINDSOR NC IS DOWN ATTM. RETURN TO SERVICE TIME ISN'T YET KNOWN. SEE PNSAKQ FOR MORE INFORMATION. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ632-633-650-652-654-656-658. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ630-631. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG/MAM NEAR TERM...TMG/MAM SHORT TERM...TMG LONG TERM...LKB AVIATION...MPR MARINE...LKB/MPR/JEF EQUIPMENT...AKQ