000 FXUS65 KABQ 050915 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 300 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2009 .DISCUSSION...CONVECTION STILL ACTIVE OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WIND DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST UPPER HIGH CENTER DEVELOPING OVER ARIZONA. ANOTHER ROUND OF EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS BLEEDING INTO RIO GRANDE VALLEY AS BOUNDARY SAGS DOWN EASTERN PLAINS...BUT WON/T BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS OCCURRED LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO CONVECTION ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANDIAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN BEFORE DEVELOPING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN MONDAY. STORM MOTION SHOULD BE...IN GENERAL...FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. NORTHEAST CORNER WILL REMAIN UNDER THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY. 00Z MODEL RUNS DON/T BUILD THE HIGH AS STRONGLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...TENDING TOWARDS FLATTER WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT UNTIL WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS ISN/T FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION UNTIL LATER TUESDAY. CONSEQUENTLY HAVE RESTORED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS WELL AS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...GFS INDICATES HIGH CENTER WILL BECOME ANCHORED OVER NEW MEXICO FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WOULD LIMIT OR SHUT DOWN ANY CHANCE FOR ANOTHER BURST OF MOISTURE FROM OLD MEXICO...CONFINING ANY CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...WHICH SHOULD BE RATHER SMALL...TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ONE CAVEAT...THE HIGH CENTER MAY WOBBLE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ALLOW A SURFACE FRONT INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE. LATEST ECMWF ALSO SUPPORTS THIS TREND. OTHERWISE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WILL WARM TO NORMAL OR ABOVE...ALLOWING FOR SOME CENTURY READINGS IN THE EAST...AND SOME MID 90S TO NEAR 100 IN THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL VALLEYS. && .AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTS AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THRU SUNRISE. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 KTS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VSBYS TO 3SM AND CIGS TO 030. LIGHT GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY UNTIL ABOUT 15Z. A BRIEF BREAK IS ANTICIPATED BETWEEN 15Z-19Z BEFORE ACTIVITY FIRES UP AGAIN OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 KTS. DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE WEST WILL FAVOR MORE OF A GUSTY WIND THREAT FROM ANY STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY FROM THE CENTRAL MTS EASTWARD. NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 21Z. && .FIRE WEATHER...THE MOIST PLUME HAS DEFORMED EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF NM WHILE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR SLIDES EAST INTO THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS. THE DRIEST AIR AT THE SURFACE IS STILL POOLING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. LIGHT GAP WINDS IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY WILL ADVECT HIGHER SURFACE HUMIDITIES TO ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL MTS EAST INTO THE PLAINS. DRIER LOW LEVELS MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER MONDAY THEN INTO CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MIN RH VALUES TUMBLE INTO THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. RECOVERIES WILL STILL BE GOOD IN MOST AREAS. HAINES VALUES WILL PUSH 5 AND 6 ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH. TEMPS WILL ALSO REBOUND TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS A STRONG DOME OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NM. WESTERN VALLEYS WILL PUSH THE UPPER 90S BY MIDWEEK WITH LOTS OF 100S IN THE SOUTHEAST. PERIODIC SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY...KEEPING RH VALUES AND THE CHANCES OF RECYCLED STORMS THE HIGHEST. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 93 59 94 57 / 20 10 10 10 GALLUP.......................... 88 51 89 50 / 10 10 10 10 GRANTS.......................... 87 53 89 52 / 30 20 10 10 GLENWOOD........................ 94 58 95 58 / 20 30 20 20 CHAMA........................... 80 44 82 43 / 50 30 20 20 LOS ALAMOS...................... 82 55 85 54 / 50 40 30 20 RED RIVER....................... 73 42 76 41 / 60 40 30 20 TAOS............................ 83 50 85 48 / 50 50 40 20 SANTA FE........................ 85 54 86 55 / 50 40 30 30 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 86 57 88 57 / 40 40 20 20 ESPANOLA........................ 87 56 91 54 / 40 40 20 20 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 88 66 91 65 / 40 40 10 20 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 89 62 92 62 / 40 40 10 10 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 86 61 87 61 / 40 40 10 20 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 89 63 91 62 / 40 40 10 10 SOCORRO......................... 88 63 92 63 / 30 40 20 20 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 79 51 82 51 / 40 40 20 20 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 86 55 88 55 / 40 40 30 20 CARRIZOZO....................... 87 59 89 60 / 30 30 30 30 RUIDOSO......................... 79 51 81 53 / 30 40 30 30 RATON........................... 84 52 86 52 / 40 30 30 10 LAS VEGAS....................... 81 51 84 54 / 50 40 40 30 ROY............................. 81 59 85 60 / 40 30 30 20 CLAYTON......................... 83 60 88 62 / 30 30 30 10 SANTA ROSA...................... 88 60 90 61 / 40 30 30 30 TUCUMCARI....................... 86 64 91 65 / 50 30 30 20 FORT SUMNER..................... 87 65 91 65 / 50 30 30 30 CLOVIS.......................... 85 63 90 65 / 50 20 30 30 PORTALES........................ 87 65 92 67 / 50 20 20 40 ROSWELL......................... 89 67 93 69 / 40 30 20 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$