000 FXUS65 KABQ 222147 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 247 PM MST SUN NOV 22 2009 .DISCUSSION... CURRENTLY...NEW MEXICO IN BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN DOWNSTREAM TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN CANADA PRAIRIES TO EAST TEXAS...AND DIGGING UPSTREAM TROUGH ALONG FORM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKED SQUARELY OVER UTAH AND COLORADO...WITH COLD FRONT NOW CLEAR OF NEW MEXICO AND DRAPED ALONG THE MEXICO BORDER FROM SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS. MODELS...GOOD CONSENSUS THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY...WITH SOME SERIOUS SPLITS EMERGING HEADING INTO THE THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. ACCEPTED SOLUTION DIGS TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES SOUTHWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS BY TONIGHT...AND THEN TRANSLATES TROUGH EASTWARD FOR CLIP OF NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AS ANCHORING CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW REESTABLISHED ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO TUESDAY AS TRAILING RIDGE AMPLIFIES FROM THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TO THE WESTERN CANADIAN ARCTIC. RIDGE AXIS SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO FOR THANKSGIVING DAY AS NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH SLAMS ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SOLUTION LESS THAN IDEAL FROM THANKSGIVING ON INTO THE WEEKEND...AS PROGRESSIVE GFS HOLDS TROUGH IN NEGATIVE TILT AND DIVES IT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY...KEEPING NEW MEXICO IN NORTHWEST FLOW. EUROPEAN CENTER SOLUTION FLOPS TROUGH INTO THE POSITIVE ON SATURDAY...PHASES IT WITH POLAR LOW OVER THE CANADIAN ARCTIC...AND AMPLIFIES TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PLACING NEW MEXICO IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. 12Z CANADIAN GEM FITS NICELY BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...DEVELOPING SLIGHT POSITIVE TILT TO TROUGH AND RUNNING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN GFS IN MOVING THIS FEATURE THROUGH TO THE EAST...BUT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. WILL GO CANADIAN THIS ROUND FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST AND WATCH UPCOMING MODEL RUNS WITH HOPES FOR IMPROVED SOLUTIONAL CONVERGENCE. NEAR TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AS GREAT BASIN TROUGH CLIPS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES FURTHER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS PROVIDING A SNOW DUSTING OF THE HIGHER PEAKS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING. EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THIS ROUND. FOR MONDAY...HOLIDAY SHORTENED WORK WEEK BEGINS WITH COLD FRONT PLUNGING TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A MID MORNING HIGH TEMPERATURE OVER MANY SPOTS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING STEADILY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MID MORNING HIGHS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WITH A SLIDE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. FRONT COMBINED WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE BREEZY WEST WINDS ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WITH EXCURSIONS ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA LIMITED TO THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. FOR TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RELAXING AS CLOSED LOW EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY AFTERNOON...AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SETTING UP FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. COOL AIR IN PLACE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES STATEWIDE. UPSTREAM RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE AMPLIFICATION AND EASTWARD DRIFT FOR A CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING IN THE TEENS OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS. FOR WEDNESDAY...RIDGE MOVING CLOSER TO NEW MEXICO WITH COLLAPSE OF FLOW ALOFT IN TURN. WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL HELP MAINTAIN WEAK SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DURING THE DAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK TOWARD NORMAL DURING THE DAY AT MOST POINTS. OUTLOOK...THANKSGIVING THROUGH SATURDAY...RIDGE SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO ON THANKSGIVING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES 3 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. MODEL DIFFERENCES EMERGING FRIDAY...WITH MIDDLE GROUND CANADIAN SOLUTION DIGGING TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. PATTERN WILL BACK WINDS ALOFT TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH CONTINUED WITH A GENTLE INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL HELP SPILL COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD HEADING INTO SUNDAY WITH SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW OVER THE SUMMITS AND EASTERN SLOPES OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. WILL KEEP PEELED EYE ON THE WEEKEND FORECAST IN SUCCEEDING MODEL RUNS TO REFINE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF KEY FEATURES. SHY && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ALL AIRPORTS. NO AVIATION WEATHER HAZARDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z. 43 && .FIRE WEATHER... OVERALL QUIET WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THIS NEXT SATURDAY. NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL SCOOT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. RIDGE TOP WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR WINDY CATEGORY TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN MTS...PARTICULARLY ON THE HIGHER RIDGES OF...AND JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE LEE OF...THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE MONDAY WITH STILL THE SLIGHTEST CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SNOW FLURRY OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TOWARD DAWN AND DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT NO MEASURABLE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. BREEZY NW FLOW BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER VENTILATION AREAWIDE MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS WAVE TUESDAY MORNING WILL RETURN MODERATE TO STRONG INVERSIONS TO THE AREA...COLDER MIN TEMPS...AND SOMEWHAT BETTER RH RECOVERIES. VENTILATION TUESDAY TO BE POOR WITH MUCH WEAKER MIXING AND COOLER TEMPS. WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK WILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...STRONG OVERNIGHT INVERSIONS...AND WEAK DAYTIME MIXING. 43 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 24 50 21 48 / 0 0 0 0 DULCE........................... 13 47 12 46 / 10 5 0 0 CUBA............................ 19 47 16 47 / 0 0 0 0 GALLUP.......................... 17 52 15 50 / 0 0 0 0 EL MORRO........................ 18 51 15 50 / 0 0 0 0 GRANTS.......................... 15 55 13 54 / 0 0 0 0 QUEMADO......................... 23 55 20 54 / 0 0 0 0 GLENWOOD........................ 35 67 33 66 / 0 0 0 0 CHAMA........................... 19 42 13 41 / 10 10 0 0 LOS ALAMOS...................... 29 50 24 49 / 0 0 0 0 PECOS........................... 26 49 22 48 / 0 0 0 0 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 19 46 13 46 / 5 0 0 0 RED RIVER....................... 17 37 13 37 / 5 5 0 0 ANGEL FIRE...................... 23 40 17 40 / 0 5 0 0 TAOS............................ 15 48 12 47 / 0 0 0 0 ESPANOLA........................ 22 55 20 54 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE........................ 26 50 22 49 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 22 52 20 51 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 26 56 25 55 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 32 56 30 54 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 32 58 31 56 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 29 57 28 55 / 0 0 0 0 LOS LUNAS....................... 31 60 30 58 / 0 0 0 0 RIO RANCHO...................... 28 57 26 55 / 0 0 0 0 SOCORRO......................... 38 63 35 60 / 0 0 0 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 28 53 25 52 / 0 0 0 0 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 26 54 24 52 / 0 0 0 0 CLINES CORNERS.................. 27 52 24 49 / 0 0 0 0 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 30 57 27 54 / 0 0 0 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 33 63 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 RUIDOSO......................... 38 56 36 53 / 0 0 0 0 CAPULIN......................... 29 49 23 49 / 0 5 0 0 RATON........................... 31 53 26 52 / 0 0 0 0 LAS VEGAS....................... 31 54 26 52 / 0 0 0 0 CLAYTON......................... 36 57 33 55 / 0 0 0 0 ROY............................. 26 57 23 54 / 0 0 0 0 CONCHAS......................... 32 63 29 59 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA ROSA...................... 34 64 31 60 / 0 0 0 0 TUCUMCARI....................... 35 62 32 59 / 0 0 0 0 CLOVIS.......................... 37 65 34 57 / 0 0 0 0 PORTALES........................ 35 67 33 57 / 0 0 0 0 FORT SUMNER..................... 34 67 31 61 / 0 0 0 0 ROSWELL......................... 32 72 31 61 / 0 0 0 0 PICACHO......................... 34 69 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 ELK............................. 34 66 32 59 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHY/43