000 FXUS65 KABQ 080957 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 257 AM MST SUN NOV 8 2009 .DISCUSSION... WEAK W FLOW THROUGH TUE AS A STORM SYSTEM TO OUR S MOVES SLOWLY INTO W TX. WEAK RIDGING ON MON AND TUE THEN INCREASING SW FLOW FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...LESS THAN ON SAT...AS ONE STORM PASSES TO OUR S AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE TO OUR N. TOOK TEMPERATURES UP TO MATCH OR EXCEED GUIDANCE TODAY...WITH HIGHS REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT MOST PLACES. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NE LATER THIS PM AND SLIDE S TON. WHILE IT WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE E ON MON...IT LOOKS LIKE THE INITIAL PUSH IS NOT ALL THAT STRONG. THUS RAISED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE E MON...BETWEEN THE COOLER NAM AND WARMER GFS. A SECOND SURGE MON NIGHT WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL COOLING TUE ACROSS THE E. WEAK E CANYON WINDS SHOULD SQUEEZE INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATER MON NIGHT. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...A FEW RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE ON MON. BEHIND THE SECOND SURGE WILL CALL THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WITH PATCHY FOG MON NIGHT AND TUE AM. LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER TUE PM OVER THE EC PLAINS AND CHAVES COUNTY. INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO STRONGER SURFACE WINDS FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS THU INTO SAT...FAVORING THE NW AND NC ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRI. CHJ && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ALL AIRPORTS. NO AVIATION WEATHER HAZARDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL FORM A CEILING AT TIMES AS THEY CROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT. NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z. 44 && .FIRE WEATHER... ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE TODAY. A STRAY SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SANGRES AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS THANKS TO A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL DIP INTO THE PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON NEW MEXICOS EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MAINLY NORTH OF NM INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS COMBINATION COULD RESULT IN A SPOTTY RAIN SHOWER OR HIGH TERRAIN SNOW SHOWER ALONG AND EAST OF OUR CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ADDITIONALLY...MODELS CONTINUE TO WAIVER ON WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PUSH THROUGH GAPS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE LATEST MOS SUGGESTS A WEAK EAST WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEY BELOW CANYONS FOR A TIME MONDAY NIGHT. THANKS TO THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL DROP TO NEAR AND A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL IN THE EAST...WHILE WESTERN READINGS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. WEDNESDAY WILL BRING DRY WEATHER STATEWIDE WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A BROAD TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. SHORTWAVES WILL CYCLE THROUGH THIS TROUGH AND KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS IN OUR FORECAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE COMING WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU. ONE OF THE STRONGER SHORTWAVES COULD CROSS NM THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TO NEAR AND A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AS THE WEEKEND COMMENCES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THIS STRONGER WAVE CROSSES. HOWEVER...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO AVERT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. 44 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 68 33 66 34 / 0 0 0 0 DULCE........................... 64 27 63 23 / 0 0 5 5 CUBA............................ 67 33 65 29 / 0 0 0 5 GALLUP.......................... 67 26 65 26 / 0 5 0 0 EL MORRO........................ 64 30 62 29 / 0 5 0 0 GRANTS.......................... 69 26 64 26 / 0 0 0 0 QUEMADO......................... 66 30 64 28 / 0 0 0 0 GLENWOOD........................ 75 36 74 36 / 0 0 0 0 CHAMA........................... 62 27 61 25 / 0 5 5 5 LOS ALAMOS...................... 62 38 59 36 / 0 0 0 5 PECOS........................... 63 30 65 33 / 0 0 5 5 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 60 29 58 26 / 0 5 10 10 RED RIVER....................... 59 25 53 25 / 0 10 10 10 ANGEL FIRE...................... 58 26 56 27 / 0 10 10 10 TAOS............................ 64 27 62 25 / 0 5 5 5 ESPANOLA........................ 69 34 67 32 / 0 0 0 5 SANTA FE........................ 67 36 64 35 / 0 0 0 5 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 67 34 64 33 / 0 0 0 5 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 69 41 66 44 / 0 0 0 5 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 69 42 68 42 / 0 0 0 5 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 70 36 69 38 / 0 0 0 5 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 69 40 68 40 / 0 0 0 5 LOS LUNAS....................... 72 37 70 38 / 0 0 0 5 RIO RANCHO...................... 70 38 68 38 / 0 0 0 5 SOCORRO......................... 73 38 71 37 / 0 0 0 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 65 33 62 29 / 0 0 0 5 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 69 32 65 30 / 0 0 5 10 CLINES CORNERS.................. 67 36 60 32 / 0 0 5 10 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 69 38 63 33 / 0 0 0 5 CARRIZOZO....................... 71 38 69 37 / 0 0 0 5 RUIDOSO......................... 67 37 65 34 / 0 0 0 10 CAPULIN......................... 64 30 54 28 / 0 10 10 5 RATON........................... 70 32 57 28 / 0 5 5 5 LAS VEGAS....................... 69 33 58 30 / 0 0 5 5 CLAYTON......................... 74 38 55 36 / 0 10 10 5 ROY............................. 71 35 53 33 / 0 0 5 5 CONCHAS......................... 76 41 59 34 / 0 0 5 5 SANTA ROSA...................... 77 39 58 33 / 0 0 5 5 TUCUMCARI....................... 78 40 61 36 / 0 0 5 5 CLOVIS.......................... 76 42 63 37 / 0 0 5 20 PORTALES........................ 77 41 64 38 / 0 0 5 20 FORT SUMNER..................... 77 39 66 37 / 0 0 0 10 ROSWELL......................... 77 41 70 42 / 0 0 5 10 PICACHO......................... 79 38 66 39 / 0 0 0 10 ELK............................. 75 39 66 40 / 0 0 0 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 40/44