000
AXUS74 KCRP 130232
DGTCRP
TXZ229>234-239>247-140245-
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
832 PM CST THU NOV 12 2009
...LITTLE CHANGE IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH TEXAS AS HEAVY
RAINFALL ELUDES THE AREA...
SYNOPSIS...NOVEMBER HAS STARTED OUT RELATIVELY DRY...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 RECEIVING LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL.
LOCATIONS RECEIVING THE MOST RAINFALL DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS
WERE OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES NEAR AND NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI...AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF VICTORIA...GOLIAD AND BEE
COUNTIES. STILL...THOSE AREAS RECEIVING THE MOST RAIN GENERALLY
RECEIVED LESS THAN ONE INCH OF PRECIPITATION...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL
PORTION OF NORTHERN GOLIAD COUNTY WHERE AMOUNTS WERE HIGHER (BUT
STILL BELOW 2 INCHES). THEREFORE...IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE IMPACTS
FROM EL-NINO HAVE MISSED THE SOUTH TEXAS AREA...AT LEAST FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NOVEMBER. STILL...AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
NOVEMBER GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 1 INCH OVER WESTERN AREAS OF
THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA TO NEARLY 3 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS. SO...RAINFALL DEFICITS DID NOT INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS WHERE LITTLE RAIN OCCURRED
BUT DID NOT FALL NOTABLY WHERE WIDESPREAD RAIN WAS RECEIVED.
THUS...DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH TEXAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING
THE PAST TWO WEEKS.
THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR PRODUCT...VALID FOR NOVEMBER 10 2009
SHOWS THE FOLLOWING CONDITIONS OVER THE CORPUS CHRISTI HYDROLOGIC
SERVICE AREA (HSA)...
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS (D4) ARE CONTAINED IN AN AREA
APPROXIMATELY WITHIN A RICARDO TO MALAQUITE BEACH TO PORT ARANSAS
TO TAFT TO ANNAROSE TO ROSITA TO RICARDO LINE.
OUTSIDE THE D4 AREA...EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS (D3) ARE
CONTAINED IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LAMAR TO SKIDMORE TO LOMA ALTA
TO JUST EAST OF AGUILARES TO LA GLORIA TO SARITA LINE.
OUTSIDE THE D3 ARA...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS (D2) ARE CONTAINED
WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY DACOSTA TO WEESATCHE TO KARNES CITY TO
CROSS TO JUST WEST OF AGUILARES LINE.
MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS (D1) EXIST NORTH AND EAST OF THE
DACOSTA TO WEESATCHE LINE (AND INCLUDE THE CITY OF VICTORIA)...
EAST OF A ZELLA TO FOWLERTON TO RANCHITOS LAS LOMAS TO RIO BRAVO
LINE...AND NORTH AND WEST OF A RACHAL TO LA ESPERANZA RANCH
AIRPORT LINE (INCLUDING A SMALL PORTION OF EXTREME NORTHWESTERN LA
SALLE COUNTY).
ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS (D0) ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE REMAINING
PORTIONS OF WEBB AND LA SALLE COUNTIES (INCLUDING THE CITY OF
LAREDO)...EXCEPT FOR AN AREA IN NORTH CENTRAL LA SALLE COUNTY
(INCLUDING THE COMMUNITIES OF MILLETT...GARDENDALE AND LOS
ANGELES) WHERE CONDITIONS ARE CONSIDERED NEAR NORMAL.
SEE THE DROUGHT MONITOR PRODUCT (LINK PROVIDED BELOW) FOR
CLARIFICATION...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTLINES ARE APPROXIMATIONS.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS.
ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE WEB SITE...ALL BUT
MCMULLEN...SAN PATRICIO...ARANSAS...BEE AND VICTORIA COUNTIES
HAVE BURN BANS IN EFFECT (SO THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE SINCE
OCTOBER 30). RESIDENTS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES SHOULD
CONTACT COUNTY OFFICIALS TO ENSURE THAT BURNING IS ALLOWED.
ALSO...ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT WHEN DOING ANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES WHICH INVOLVE FIRE OR SPARKS...BY MAKING SURE WATER IS
READILY AVAILABLE SHOULD AN UNWANTED FIRE BEGIN...ESPECIALLY
DURING TIMES WHEN AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ARE BELOW 50 PERCENT AND
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ABOVE 20 MPH AND GUSTY.
NO MANDATORY WATER RESTRICTIONS ARE IN PLACE IN VICTORIA OR
CORPUS CHRISTI AND NONE ARE PLANNED. FLOWS ON THE GUADALUPE RIVER
AT VICTORIA REMAIN ABOVE 1000 CFS...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE THE 150
CFS NEEDED BY THE CITY TO CONTINUE TO USE THE RIVER WATER. RESIDENTS
SHOULD STILL VOLUNTARILY CONSERVE WATER...ESPECIALLY WHEN WATERING
LAWNS OR LANDSCAPES. WATERING OF LAWNS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
CURTAILED AS COOLER WEATHER SETS IN AND GRASSES BECOME DORMANT. IF
ANY WATERING IS NEEDED...IT SHOULD BE DONE BEFORE 10 AM AND AFTER 6
PM TO REDUCE EVAPORATION. ALSO...AVOID RUN OFF INTO SIDEWALKS AND
STREETS...USE A SPRINKLER WHICH MAKES LARGER WATER DROPLETS...
CURTAIL WATERING TIME TO LESS THAN 30 MINUTES AND MINIMIZE
FERTILIZING.
AGRICULTURAL AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS.
THE LATEST SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY MAP FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER SHOWS NEAR NORMAL SOIL CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA AREA...WITH BELOW NORMAL SOIL CONDITIONS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE HSA (THE GREATEST DEFICITS STILL RESIDE
OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD INTO
THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY). TEXAS AGRI-LIFE EXTENSION ECONOMISTS
ESTIMATE THAT THE TEXAS DROUGHT HAS EXCEEDED 4.1 BILLION IN
AGRICULTURAL LOSSES. MANY FARMERS AND RANCHERS ARE STILL WAITING
FOR RELIEF FROM THEIR AGRICULTURAL LOSSES. ON NOVEMBER 17 2009...
DROUGHT RECOVERY STRATEGIES FOR LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS WILL BE
DISCUSSED AT THE BEEVILLE LIVESTOCK COMMISSION...AND LIVESTOCK
OWNERS ARE INVITED. ON A POSITIVE NOTE...THE DROUGHT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE DEER HUNTING SEASON.
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT FOR NOVEMBER
10...DRY WEATHER IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES ALLOWED FOR SOME FIELD
ACTIVITIES TO BEGIN AGAIN. APPLICATIONS OF HERBICIDES CONTINUED TO
KILL WEEDS...AND SOME SEEDING OF COTTON BEGAN. FARTHER EAST...RAIN
DELAYED ALL FIELD WORK (INCLUDING COTTON STALK DESTRUCTION) AND
DELAYED THE HAY HARVEST. ALTHOUGH THE HAY HARVEST HAS BEEN GOOD
ENOUGH TO HELP ALLEVIATE THE SHORTAGE CAUSED BY THE DROUGHT...
SUPPLIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR SOME TIME. DRYLAND
WHEAT PROGRESSED WELL...BUT MORE RAIN IS NEEDED TO KEEP UP WITH
GROWTH AND WATER DEMANDS.
FIRE DANGER HAZARDS.
A LOW FIRE DANGER EXISTS OVER ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS (USING A FIVE
DAY AVERAGE). LOW TO MODERATE WINDS...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
HUMIDITIES...RECENT RAINS AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT THE FIRE DANGER LOW FOR THE MOST PART. THE
LATEST COUNTY AVERAGED KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES (KBDI) SHOW
INDICES OF LESS THAN 400 OVER BEE...REFUGIO...CALHOUN...VICTORIA
AND GOLIAD...THE LATTER COUNTY HAVING A VALUE OF 200 OR LOWER. THE
HIGHEST AVERAGES (BETWEEN 500 AND 600) EXIST OVER WEBB...DUVAL...
JIM WELLS...NUECES AND LIVE OAK COUNTIES. AS THE COOL SEASON
CONTINUES...FRONTS WILL BECOME MORE FREQUENT. EL NINO CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE BENEFICIAL RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTS...KEEPING THE KBDI VALUES AND THE FIRE DANGER LOW. IF THE
FRONTS DO NOT BRING RAIN...THEN DRIER AIR AND WINDY CONDITIONS
BEHIND FRONTS COULD ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER.
RIVER AND HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS.
RIVER AND CREEK LEVELS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE FRIO AND
NUECES RIVER BASINS (INCLUDING SMALLER RIVERS AND CREEKS)...WITH
NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. RECENT FLOODING ON THE GUADALUPE
RIVER (DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL LAST MONTH) ENDED BY THE FIRST OF
NOVEMBER...AND ALL RIVERS AND CREEKS HAVE REMAINED WITHIN BANKS
SINCE THEN.
RESERVOIR LEVELS FOR THE CORPUS CHRISTI WATER SUPPLY ONLY FELL
SLIGHTLY. THE SMALL DECREASE IN LEVELS WAS PARTLY DUE TO DECREASED
WATER USAGE...BUT ALSO TO RECENT RAINS NORTH OF THE HSA PROVIDING
A SMALL RECHARGE. AS OF NOVEMBER 12...THE LEVEL AT CHOKE CANYON
DAM WAS 211.1 FEET (68.5 PERCENT CAPACITY)...WITH LAKE CORPUS
CHRISTI AT 81.6 FEET (29.2 PERCENT CAPACITY). THE COMBINED SYSTEM
CAPACITY NOW STANDS AT 57.9 PERCENT...WHICH IS 0.2 PERCENTAGE
POINTS LOWER THAN ON OCTOBER 30. THE LEVEL AT CANYON LAKE ROSE 0.6
FEET SINCE OCTOBER 30 TO 897.8 FEET. THE POOL LEVEL AT COLETO
CREEK FELL 0.2 FEET...WITH THE LATEST LEVEL BEING 96.6 FEET.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
NORMAL NOVEMBER RAINFALL OVER SOUTH TEXAS GENERALLY RANGES FROM
AROUND 1 INCH NEAR THE RIO GRANDE (WHERE LITTLE TO NO RAIN WAS
OBSERVED DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS) TO A LITTLE LESS THAN 3 INCHES
OVER THE VICTORIA AREA AND NORTHEASTERN COASTAL COUNTIES (WHERE
AMOUNTS WERE MAINLY LESS THAN 1 INCH OVER THE PAST 14 DAYS).
THUS...SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE TROUBLE ACHIEVING NEAR NORMAL
RAINFALL FOR NOVEMBER... CONSIDERING HOW DRY MOST LOCATIONS IN
SOUTH TEXAS HAVE BEEN SO FAR THIS MONTH. WHILE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OCCURRED EAST OF INTERSTATE 37 DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS...NO
HEAVY OR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED. MOST OF THE RAIN WHICH
OCCURRED DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS FELL ON NOVEMBER 8. THIS
PRECIPITATION WAS MAINLY STRATIFORM IN NATURE...AS THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINED TOO STABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN- PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS.
THUS...MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
HSA...MAINTAINED HIGH RAINFALL DEFICITS FOR 2009. AT THIS
TIME...THE 2009 RAINFALL DEFICIT AT CORPUS CHRISTI IS 16.37
INCHES...WITH A 0.40 SHORTFALL OF RAIN FOR NOVEMBER. AT
VICTORIA...WHERE NOVEMBER RAINFALL HAS BEEN ABOUT NORMAL SO FAR
(A 0.01 INCH SURPLUS)...A YEARLY RAINFALL DEFICIT OF 13.71 INCHES
EXISTS. OFFICIALLY...NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN
LAREDO FOR NOVEMBER...RESULTING IN A MONTHLY DEFICIT OF 0.58
INCHES. BECAUSE OF THIS...DOUBLE-DIGIT YEARLY RAINFALL DEFICITS
HAVE RETURNED TO LAREDO...WITH THE 2009 DEFICIT NOW AT 10.22
INCHES.
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN MAINLY ON MONDAY OVER
MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
AVERAGE WELL BELOW 1/4 INCH. OTHERWISE...NO NOTABLE RAINFALL
EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NOVEMBER 19. BEFORE THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...BUT BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THROUGH NOVEMBER 19. THE EIGHT TO 14 DAY
OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD NOVEMBER 20 THROUGH NOVEMBER 26 INDICATES
EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE/NEAR/BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL AND
TEMPERATURES. THE THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER 2009 THROUGH
JANUARY 2010 PREDICTS THAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR...DUE TO THE
CONTINUING EL NINO CONDITIONS DURING THE COOL SEASON. THE LATEST
DROUGHT OUTLOOK PRODUCT SHOWS DROUGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY IMPROVING
AND IMPACTS EASING OVER ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH JANUARY.
FINALLY...THE SOIL MOISTURE OUTLOOK THROUGH JANUARY INDICATES NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SOIL CONDITIONS.
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED
NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER NOVEMBER 27 FOR ALL COUNTIES IN SOUTH TEXAS.
RELATED WEB SITES...
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI DROUGHT PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CRP/DROUGHT.HTML
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (INCLUDES DROUGHT AND SOIL MOISTURE
OUTLOOKS... DROUGHT ARCHIVES AND TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL OUTLOOKS)...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (INCLUDES ONLY TEXAS)...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/DM_STATE.HTM?TX,S
U.S. DROUGHT PORTAL...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV
TEXAS DROUGHT MONITORING SITE...
HTTP://WWW.TXWIN.NET/MONITORING/METEOROLOGICAL/DROUGHT/INDICES.HTM
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV
DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER...
HTTP://DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU/
VEGETATION DROUGHT RESPONSE INDEX
HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU.VEGDRI/VEGDRI_MAIN.HTM?EV
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI)...
HTTP://WWW.WRCC.DRI.EDU/SPI/SPI.HTML
AGNEWS: TEXAS A & M AGRICULTURAL PROGRAM (CROP AND WEATHER REPORT)...
HTTP://AGNEWS.TAMU.EDU
TEXAS INTERAGENCY COORDINATION CENTER (TICC)...
HTTP://WWW.TAMU.EDU/TICC/
TEXAS BURN BANS...HTTP://TFSFRP.TAMU.EDU/WILDFIRES/DECBAN.PNG
TEXAS KBDI...HTTP://WEBGIS.TAMU.EDU/TFS/KBDI_DAILY/KBDICOUNTY.PNG
ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
NWS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/
USGS...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE
AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT
MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED
FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
300 PINSON DRIVE
CORPUS CHRISTI TX 78406
PHONE: 361-289-0959
SR-CRP.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
$$
GW
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