000 AXUS74 KCRP 130232 DGTCRP TXZ229>234-239>247-140245- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 832 PM CST THU NOV 12 2009 ...LITTLE CHANGE IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH TEXAS AS HEAVY RAINFALL ELUDES THE AREA... SYNOPSIS...NOVEMBER HAS STARTED OUT RELATIVELY DRY...WITH MANY LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 RECEIVING LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL. LOCATIONS RECEIVING THE MOST RAINFALL DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS WERE OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES NEAR AND NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI...AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF VICTORIA...GOLIAD AND BEE COUNTIES. STILL...THOSE AREAS RECEIVING THE MOST RAIN GENERALLY RECEIVED LESS THAN ONE INCH OF PRECIPITATION...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHERN GOLIAD COUNTY WHERE AMOUNTS WERE HIGHER (BUT STILL BELOW 2 INCHES). THEREFORE...IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE IMPACTS FROM EL-NINO HAVE MISSED THE SOUTH TEXAS AREA...AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF NOVEMBER. STILL...AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR NOVEMBER GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 1 INCH OVER WESTERN AREAS OF THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA TO NEARLY 3 INCHES OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS. SO...RAINFALL DEFICITS DID NOT INCREASE DRAMATICALLY OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS WHERE LITTLE RAIN OCCURRED BUT DID NOT FALL NOTABLY WHERE WIDESPREAD RAIN WAS RECEIVED. THUS...DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH TEXAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS. THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR PRODUCT...VALID FOR NOVEMBER 10 2009 SHOWS THE FOLLOWING CONDITIONS OVER THE CORPUS CHRISTI HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA)... EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS (D4) ARE CONTAINED IN AN AREA APPROXIMATELY WITHIN A RICARDO TO MALAQUITE BEACH TO PORT ARANSAS TO TAFT TO ANNAROSE TO ROSITA TO RICARDO LINE. OUTSIDE THE D4 AREA...EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS (D3) ARE CONTAINED IN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LAMAR TO SKIDMORE TO LOMA ALTA TO JUST EAST OF AGUILARES TO LA GLORIA TO SARITA LINE. OUTSIDE THE D3 ARA...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS (D2) ARE CONTAINED WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY DACOSTA TO WEESATCHE TO KARNES CITY TO CROSS TO JUST WEST OF AGUILARES LINE. MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS (D1) EXIST NORTH AND EAST OF THE DACOSTA TO WEESATCHE LINE (AND INCLUDE THE CITY OF VICTORIA)... EAST OF A ZELLA TO FOWLERTON TO RANCHITOS LAS LOMAS TO RIO BRAVO LINE...AND NORTH AND WEST OF A RACHAL TO LA ESPERANZA RANCH AIRPORT LINE (INCLUDING A SMALL PORTION OF EXTREME NORTHWESTERN LA SALLE COUNTY). ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS (D0) ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF WEBB AND LA SALLE COUNTIES (INCLUDING THE CITY OF LAREDO)...EXCEPT FOR AN AREA IN NORTH CENTRAL LA SALLE COUNTY (INCLUDING THE COMMUNITIES OF MILLETT...GARDENDALE AND LOS ANGELES) WHERE CONDITIONS ARE CONSIDERED NEAR NORMAL. SEE THE DROUGHT MONITOR PRODUCT (LINK PROVIDED BELOW) FOR CLARIFICATION...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTLINES ARE APPROXIMATIONS. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS. ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE WEB SITE...ALL BUT MCMULLEN...SAN PATRICIO...ARANSAS...BEE AND VICTORIA COUNTIES HAVE BURN BANS IN EFFECT (SO THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE SINCE OCTOBER 30). RESIDENTS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT COUNTY OFFICIALS TO ENSURE THAT BURNING IS ALLOWED. ALSO...ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT WHEN DOING ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WHICH INVOLVE FIRE OR SPARKS...BY MAKING SURE WATER IS READILY AVAILABLE SHOULD AN UNWANTED FIRE BEGIN...ESPECIALLY DURING TIMES WHEN AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES ARE BELOW 50 PERCENT AND SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ABOVE 20 MPH AND GUSTY. NO MANDATORY WATER RESTRICTIONS ARE IN PLACE IN VICTORIA OR CORPUS CHRISTI AND NONE ARE PLANNED. FLOWS ON THE GUADALUPE RIVER AT VICTORIA REMAIN ABOVE 1000 CFS...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE THE 150 CFS NEEDED BY THE CITY TO CONTINUE TO USE THE RIVER WATER. RESIDENTS SHOULD STILL VOLUNTARILY CONSERVE WATER...ESPECIALLY WHEN WATERING LAWNS OR LANDSCAPES. WATERING OF LAWNS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE CURTAILED AS COOLER WEATHER SETS IN AND GRASSES BECOME DORMANT. IF ANY WATERING IS NEEDED...IT SHOULD BE DONE BEFORE 10 AM AND AFTER 6 PM TO REDUCE EVAPORATION. ALSO...AVOID RUN OFF INTO SIDEWALKS AND STREETS...USE A SPRINKLER WHICH MAKES LARGER WATER DROPLETS... CURTAIL WATERING TIME TO LESS THAN 30 MINUTES AND MINIMIZE FERTILIZING. AGRICULTURAL AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. THE LATEST SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY MAP FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER SHOWS NEAR NORMAL SOIL CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA AREA...WITH BELOW NORMAL SOIL CONDITIONS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE HSA (THE GREATEST DEFICITS STILL RESIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN BRUSH COUNTRY). TEXAS AGRI-LIFE EXTENSION ECONOMISTS ESTIMATE THAT THE TEXAS DROUGHT HAS EXCEEDED 4.1 BILLION IN AGRICULTURAL LOSSES. MANY FARMERS AND RANCHERS ARE STILL WAITING FOR RELIEF FROM THEIR AGRICULTURAL LOSSES. ON NOVEMBER 17 2009... DROUGHT RECOVERY STRATEGIES FOR LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS WILL BE DISCUSSED AT THE BEEVILLE LIVESTOCK COMMISSION...AND LIVESTOCK OWNERS ARE INVITED. ON A POSITIVE NOTE...THE DROUGHT IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE DEER HUNTING SEASON. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT FOR NOVEMBER 10...DRY WEATHER IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES ALLOWED FOR SOME FIELD ACTIVITIES TO BEGIN AGAIN. APPLICATIONS OF HERBICIDES CONTINUED TO KILL WEEDS...AND SOME SEEDING OF COTTON BEGAN. FARTHER EAST...RAIN DELAYED ALL FIELD WORK (INCLUDING COTTON STALK DESTRUCTION) AND DELAYED THE HAY HARVEST. ALTHOUGH THE HAY HARVEST HAS BEEN GOOD ENOUGH TO HELP ALLEVIATE THE SHORTAGE CAUSED BY THE DROUGHT... SUPPLIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR SOME TIME. DRYLAND WHEAT PROGRESSED WELL...BUT MORE RAIN IS NEEDED TO KEEP UP WITH GROWTH AND WATER DEMANDS. FIRE DANGER HAZARDS. A LOW FIRE DANGER EXISTS OVER ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS (USING A FIVE DAY AVERAGE). LOW TO MODERATE WINDS...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HUMIDITIES...RECENT RAINS AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT THE FIRE DANGER LOW FOR THE MOST PART. THE LATEST COUNTY AVERAGED KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES (KBDI) SHOW INDICES OF LESS THAN 400 OVER BEE...REFUGIO...CALHOUN...VICTORIA AND GOLIAD...THE LATTER COUNTY HAVING A VALUE OF 200 OR LOWER. THE HIGHEST AVERAGES (BETWEEN 500 AND 600) EXIST OVER WEBB...DUVAL... JIM WELLS...NUECES AND LIVE OAK COUNTIES. AS THE COOL SEASON CONTINUES...FRONTS WILL BECOME MORE FREQUENT. EL NINO CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERATE BENEFICIAL RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTS...KEEPING THE KBDI VALUES AND THE FIRE DANGER LOW. IF THE FRONTS DO NOT BRING RAIN...THEN DRIER AIR AND WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND FRONTS COULD ONCE AGAIN INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER. RIVER AND HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS. RIVER AND CREEK LEVELS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER THE FRIO AND NUECES RIVER BASINS (INCLUDING SMALLER RIVERS AND CREEKS)...WITH NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. RECENT FLOODING ON THE GUADALUPE RIVER (DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL LAST MONTH) ENDED BY THE FIRST OF NOVEMBER...AND ALL RIVERS AND CREEKS HAVE REMAINED WITHIN BANKS SINCE THEN. RESERVOIR LEVELS FOR THE CORPUS CHRISTI WATER SUPPLY ONLY FELL SLIGHTLY. THE SMALL DECREASE IN LEVELS WAS PARTLY DUE TO DECREASED WATER USAGE...BUT ALSO TO RECENT RAINS NORTH OF THE HSA PROVIDING A SMALL RECHARGE. AS OF NOVEMBER 12...THE LEVEL AT CHOKE CANYON DAM WAS 211.1 FEET (68.5 PERCENT CAPACITY)...WITH LAKE CORPUS CHRISTI AT 81.6 FEET (29.2 PERCENT CAPACITY). THE COMBINED SYSTEM CAPACITY NOW STANDS AT 57.9 PERCENT...WHICH IS 0.2 PERCENTAGE POINTS LOWER THAN ON OCTOBER 30. THE LEVEL AT CANYON LAKE ROSE 0.6 FEET SINCE OCTOBER 30 TO 897.8 FEET. THE POOL LEVEL AT COLETO CREEK FELL 0.2 FEET...WITH THE LATEST LEVEL BEING 96.6 FEET. CLIMATE SUMMARY... NORMAL NOVEMBER RAINFALL OVER SOUTH TEXAS GENERALLY RANGES FROM AROUND 1 INCH NEAR THE RIO GRANDE (WHERE LITTLE TO NO RAIN WAS OBSERVED DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS) TO A LITTLE LESS THAN 3 INCHES OVER THE VICTORIA AREA AND NORTHEASTERN COASTAL COUNTIES (WHERE AMOUNTS WERE MAINLY LESS THAN 1 INCH OVER THE PAST 14 DAYS). THUS...SOME LOCATIONS MAY HAVE TROUBLE ACHIEVING NEAR NORMAL RAINFALL FOR NOVEMBER... CONSIDERING HOW DRY MOST LOCATIONS IN SOUTH TEXAS HAVE BEEN SO FAR THIS MONTH. WHILE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRED EAST OF INTERSTATE 37 DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS...NO HEAVY OR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED. MOST OF THE RAIN WHICH OCCURRED DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS FELL ON NOVEMBER 8. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS MAINLY STRATIFORM IN NATURE...AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINED TOO STABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN- PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. THUS...MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE HSA...MAINTAINED HIGH RAINFALL DEFICITS FOR 2009. AT THIS TIME...THE 2009 RAINFALL DEFICIT AT CORPUS CHRISTI IS 16.37 INCHES...WITH A 0.40 SHORTFALL OF RAIN FOR NOVEMBER. AT VICTORIA...WHERE NOVEMBER RAINFALL HAS BEEN ABOUT NORMAL SO FAR (A 0.01 INCH SURPLUS)...A YEARLY RAINFALL DEFICIT OF 13.71 INCHES EXISTS. OFFICIALLY...NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN LAREDO FOR NOVEMBER...RESULTING IN A MONTHLY DEFICIT OF 0.58 INCHES. BECAUSE OF THIS...DOUBLE-DIGIT YEARLY RAINFALL DEFICITS HAVE RETURNED TO LAREDO...WITH THE 2009 DEFICIT NOW AT 10.22 INCHES. PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS... A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN MAINLY ON MONDAY OVER MOST OF SOUTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE WELL BELOW 1/4 INCH. OTHERWISE...NO NOTABLE RAINFALL EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NOVEMBER 19. BEFORE THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...BUT BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THROUGH NOVEMBER 19. THE EIGHT TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD NOVEMBER 20 THROUGH NOVEMBER 26 INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE/NEAR/BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES. THE THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER 2009 THROUGH JANUARY 2010 PREDICTS THAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR...DUE TO THE CONTINUING EL NINO CONDITIONS DURING THE COOL SEASON. THE LATEST DROUGHT OUTLOOK PRODUCT SHOWS DROUGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY IMPROVING AND IMPACTS EASING OVER ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH JANUARY. FINALLY...THE SOIL MOISTURE OUTLOOK THROUGH JANUARY INDICATES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SOIL CONDITIONS. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER NOVEMBER 27 FOR ALL COUNTIES IN SOUTH TEXAS. RELATED WEB SITES... NWS CORPUS CHRISTI DROUGHT PAGE: HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/CRP/DROUGHT.HTML U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (INCLUDES DROUGHT AND SOIL MOISTURE OUTLOOKS... DROUGHT ARCHIVES AND TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL OUTLOOKS)... HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (INCLUDES ONLY TEXAS)... HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/DM_STATE.HTM?TX,S U.S. DROUGHT PORTAL... HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.GOV TEXAS DROUGHT MONITORING SITE... HTTP://WWW.TXWIN.NET/MONITORING/METEOROLOGICAL/DROUGHT/INDICES.HTM NOAA DROUGHT PAGE... HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER... HTTP://DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU/ VEGETATION DROUGHT RESPONSE INDEX HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU.VEGDRI/VEGDRI_MAIN.HTM?EV CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER... HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX (SPI)... HTTP://WWW.WRCC.DRI.EDU/SPI/SPI.HTML AGNEWS: TEXAS A & M AGRICULTURAL PROGRAM (CROP AND WEATHER REPORT)... HTTP://AGNEWS.TAMU.EDU TEXAS INTERAGENCY COORDINATION CENTER (TICC)... HTTP://WWW.TAMU.EDU/TICC/ TEXAS BURN BANS...HTTP://TFSFRP.TAMU.EDU/WILDFIRES/DECBAN.PNG TEXAS KBDI...HTTP://WEBGIS.TAMU.EDU/TFS/KBDI_DAILY/KBDICOUNTY.PNG ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION... NWS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/ USGS...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/ ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 300 PINSON DRIVE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 78406 PHONE: 361-289-0959 SR-CRP.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV $$ GW