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Analysis and Comments on a March 1998 Wedge Event

Numerical guidance maximum temperature forecast errors were rather large during the wedge event. The following stations were used in the analysis: Birmingham, Huntsville, Anniston, Montgomery, Atlanta, Athens, Columbus(GA), and Chattanooga. Observed maximum temperatures on March 17th, were subtracted from FWC MOS forecast temperatures, beginning with the 12Z cycle on March 15th (top left), and ending with 00Z cycle on March 17th (bottom right). Suprisingly, MOS forecasts did not improve as the forecast cycle approached the 17th.


4th period forecast highs minus observed highs.
4th period forecast highs minus
observed highs.		 3rd period forecast highs minus observed highs.
3rd period forecast highs minus
observed highs.
2nd period forecast highs minus observed highs.
2nd period forecast highs minus
observed highs.		 1st period forecast highs minus observed highs.
1st period forecast highs minus
observed highs.

References

Bell, G.D., and L.F. Bosart, 1998: Appalachian Cold-Air Damming. Monthly Weather Review, 116, 137-161.

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