Spring 2013 Spring Flood Outlook for Central Alabama
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
200 PM CST THU MAR 1 2013

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...

THE SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK CALLS FOR A NEAR NORMAL POTENTIAL OF RIVER
FLOODING FOR THE TOMBIGBEE...BLACK WARRIOR...AND ALABAMA RIVER
BASINS IN CENTRAL ALABAMA.

HISTORICALLY FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...THE RIVER FLOOD SEASON BEGINS IN
EARLY TO MID JANUARY...WITH THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOOD EVENTS
INCREASING THROUGH LATE WINTER WITH A PEAK IN EARLY TO MID
MARCH...ENDING IN MID APRIL FOR THE REGION.

...EXISTING CONDITIONS...

PAST PRECIPITATION...
PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS...BASED ON SERFC MULTISENSOR
PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES...HAS BEEN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION.

SO FAR THIS YEAR...PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA HAS AVERAGED
FROM TEN TO SEVENTEEN INCHES. SOME REPRESENTATIVE TOTALS ARE LISTED
BELOW:

LOCATION                   RAINFALL JANUARY THROUGH FEBRUARY 2013

BIRMINGHAM                           14.59 INCHES
TUSCALOOSA                         10.77 INCHES
ANNISTON                               13.95 INCHES
CALERA                                    15.49 INCHES
MONTGOMERY                        16.77 INCHES
TROY                                         15.29 INCHES

SOIL MOISTURE...

SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA.

RESERVOIRS...
MANY RESERVOIRS REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE THEIR TARGET POOLS. WITH FAIRLY
NORMAL RAINFALL EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT MONTH RESERVOIR LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL HEADING INTO THE SPRING SEASON.

CURRENT STREAM FLOWS...
THE 14-DAY AVERAGE STREAMFLOWS PROVIDED BY THE USGS AS OF MARCH 4TH
ARE RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.


...OUTLOOKS...

FUTURE PRECIPITATION...
THE LATEST SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE METEOROLOGICAL MODELS INDICATE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH MID
MARCH. THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK...WHICH RUNS THROUGH MAY...SHOWS A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL ALABAMA WITH NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ELSEWHERE.

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
THOUGH THE LATEST GFS METEOROLOGICAL MODEL INDICATES ONLY ONE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT THROUGH MARCH 21ST AND BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALL OTHER ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
SUGGEST RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH THE SPRING FLOOD PERIOD.  NEAR NORMAL FLOOD
POTENTIAL MEANS THE NUMBER OF RIVER FLOODS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL BE CLOSE TO TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE SERFC ISSUES A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT THE YEAR TO UPDATE
THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES.  THE SERFC WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK
IS UPDATED EVERY TWO TO THREE WEEKS.  THE SERFC JOURNAL IS ISSUED A
COUPLE OF TIMES A WEEK. YOU CAN SIGN UP FOR NOTIFICATION OF THESE
PRODUCTS ON THE SERFC INTERNET PAGE.

&&

FOR THE LATEST MULTIMEDIA VERSION OF THE SERFC WATER RESOURCES
OUTLOOK...GO TO...

    WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SERFC
       (ALL LOWERCASE)

AND CLICK ON WATER RESOURCE MENU.

YOU CAN ALSO FIND ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION AND FORECASTS ON
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL WEB PAGE AT:

    WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BMX
      (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOR QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS OUTLOOK YOU CAN CONTACT
ROGER MCNEIL...SERVICE HYDROLOGIST...AT 205-664-3010 OR BY
E-MAIL AT ROGER.MCNEIL@NOAA.GOV .

FOR DETAILED WEB INFORMATION CONCERNING RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS
FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA...GO TO:

         HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=BMX
                  (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOR PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS...GO TO:

         WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SERFC/QPFVSMAP.SHTML
                   (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOR FORECAST PRECIPITATION...GO TO:

         WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SERFC/?N=QPFPAGE
                   (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOR THE USGS WATER WATCH SITE...GO TO:
         HTTP://AL.WATER.USGS.GOV
              (ALL LOWERCASE)

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