SPC Outlook

SPC Outlook Day 1

ZCZC MKCSWODY1 000 COR
ACUS1 KMKC 081443
MKC AC 081443 COR...*


CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O.

VALID 081500Z - 091200Z

REF WW NUMBER 0183...VALID TIL 1900Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF NRN MS...NRN/CNTRL AL...NRN GA AND SRN TN. THIS
AREA IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE MKL 40 WSW CSV 35 WSW
TYS 35 SSW TYS 50 NW AND 20 S AND 30 E LGC 20 W AUO 35 SW CKL 45
ESE GWO 30 SE UOX 35 SSE MKL.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS  THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF MS..SRN AL...CENTRAL GA...CENTRAL AND WRN NC AND SC...MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND ERN TN N OF HIGH RISK AREA. THIS AREA IS TO THE
RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N MCB 30 SW GWO 15 ESE MEM MKL BNA 20 ENE
HSS 30 NNW GSO 10 NNW RDU 15 E FAY FLO 35 ENE DHN 35 NNE MOB 35 ESE
MCB 35 N MCB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 ESE BPT 20 NW LFK 20 NE PBF 25 WSW EVV 15 W FDY 35 NNW CLE
20 ENE FKL 15 WSW MRB DCA 20 E SBY ...CONT... 15 E JAX 50 N PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW PSX HDO
30 W TXK 25 NNE SLO MKE 55 NNE MTC BUF ISP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE GGW RAP GLD
20 NNE LTS CVS GNT PGA OGD 40 S 27U 30 N CTB.

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED TODAY OVER MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.  A PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 16Z.

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST DISCUSSION...

POTENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN HAS EVOLVED OVER THE SERN U.S.
WITH MARKED INCREASE IN INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT INTO THE AREA AHEAD
OF STRONG UPPER S/WV TROF AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER JET.  SITUATION
COMPLEX WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UNDERWAY WITH IMPRESSIVE BOW ECHO
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NRN MS AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ALONG GULF
COAST.  

MODELS AGREE SOMEWHAT THAT A MORE ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON VICINITY TN/AL BORDER AND DEEPEN NEWD
TONIGHT.  WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG MID/UPPER
WINDS CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON FOR SUPERCELLS AND
TORNADOES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE RAPIDLY MOVING LINE OF STORMS NOW
MOVING INTO NRN MS.  THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH RISK WHICH WAS
SHIFTED EWD INTO GA AND NWD INTO SRN TN  FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. 

OTHER AREAS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT NWD INTO ERN OH VALLEY AND EWD INTO CAROLINAS.  HAVE MOVED
MDT RISK INTO CAROLINAS AS WIND PROFILES BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND WIND DAMAGE DURING AFTERNOON WHERE
CONSIDERABLE HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE UNDER CURRENT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.  ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE...POSSIBLY THE CURRENT BOW MOVING
ACROSS NRN MS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS CAROLINAS EARLY TONIGHT WITH
WIND DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES.


SHIFTED THE SLIGHT RISK NWD INTO VA WHERE WARM FRONT WILL FOCUS
STG/SVR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR 
MASS.

 
..HALES/REHBEIN.. 04/08/98

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