The Snow Scenario for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles

by Rob Slattery

Each cold season, the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles can expect between15 and 20 inches of snow. The snow usually falls beginning in mid November and may fall as late as mid May. Last year the NWS Office in Amarillo received just 11.9 inches of snow between November and May.

What do weather forecasters look for?
Meteorological observations play an important role in making the correct forecast. The observations tell forecasters the state of the present atmosphere. Conventional wisdom suggests that one must know the current state of the atmosphere in order to predict what the atmosphere will look like in the future.

Two upper level jet streams:
The first is sometimes called the polar jet or northern stream. This jet of fast-moving air extends roughly from the Pacific Northwest eastward toward the Great Lakes region. Cold Canadian air gets pushed southward over the high plains when a disturbance or low pressure system rides along the polar jet. The other jet is called the sub tropical jet or southern stream. This jet typically extends from the Mexico Baja Region across the Southern Rocky mountains toward the Gulf of Mexico States. The Sub Tropical jet carries rich water vapor from the Pacific Ocean.

Forecasters look through numerous computer model forecasts for times when sufficiently cold air is in place across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and when moisture from the sub tropical jet is going to override the cold air near the surface. Some of the heaviest snow storms over the Southern High Plains occur when a cold Canadian high pressure system is in place over our area and the sub tropical jet continues to push Pacific moisture over the Canadian high. This overriding process is usually accompanied with an east or northeast surface wind and may last for 24-36 hours.

What about El Nino?
The forecast from NOAA’s. Climate Prediction Center calls for weak El Nino conditions this winter. A stronger than normal sub tropical jet stream associated with the weak El Nino is expected to provide equal chances or slightly higher than equal chances for winter precipitation over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. The real question is whether there will be sufficient cold air in place, at the right time, that will allow the precipitation to fall as snow or a cold rain.

The Texas and Oklahoma Divisions of Emergency Management has joined the National Weather Service to designate Wednesday, December 1, 2004 as Winter Weather Awareness Day. The purpose of Winter Weather Awareness Day is to focus public attention on winter weather safety and preparedness.

Weather across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles is famous for it's sharp outbreaks of extreme cold, often accompanied by ice and snow. With no strong influence of an El Nino or La Nina present this season, the winter outlook has less certainty than when these influences are pronounced. The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center is forecasting near to slightly above normal precipitation and near normal temperatures for the 2004-05 winter season.

It was only four winter seasons ago when a total of 46.3 inches of snow fell at the National Weather Service in Amarillo during the 2000-01 winter season. This remains as the third snowiest winter season on record. 20.6 inches of snow fell from December 25-27, making this the greatest single snowstorm event during any December on record. The 21.2 inches of snow for the month was also a December record. Records date back to 1892.

In the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle there have been more winter related deaths since 1950 than the combined total from lightning, tornadoes, and flash floods. 70% of winter-related fatalities are vehicle related, usually where winter weather directly results in a traffic accident, or from exposure to the cold once a vehicle becomes stranded. Many more indirect deaths can be attributed to traffic accidents related to winter weather.

The National Weather Service in Amarillo urges people of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles to take time now to prepare for winter weather. This includes assembling a survival kit for your home in the event electrical power is disrupted and you become isolated in your home for several days. It is also a very important to keep a survival kit in your automobile in the event you become stranded while traveling. Preparing now can be a life-saving decision. Please visit the NWS Winter Weather homepage at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/winter/ or the Amarillo NWS homepage at www.srh.noaa.gov/ama for additional winter weather information.