FALL 2004 DRYLINE PAGE 2

Kids Flock NWS Booth at Discover 2004

The Amarillo National Weather Service participated for the first time in the annual Discover 2004 celebration. The event is held every Labor Day on the grounds of the Don Harrington Discovery Center. The event runs from Noon to 8 pm, and is geared to kids. The staff at the NWS took turns manning the booth and interacted with more than 500 kids. Each kid received a "custom-made" tornado-in-a-bottle. Kids chose the color and the name of their tornado.

The tornado-in-a-bottle was the idea of the NWS Information Technology Officer Scott Plischke and Meteorologist Intern Jim Wingenroth. "The tornado-in-a-bottle was a huge hit" said Warning Coordination Meteorologist Steve Drillette. "We plan to do this in other outreach activities involving kids". For photos of this event, click here.




Annual Spotter & Cooperative Observer Appreciation Picnic a Success


The Amarillo National Weather Service held its 4th annual Spotter and Cooperative Observer Appreciation Picnic on Saturday, August 21st. A total of 85 people attended this year’s event, which included spotters, observers, emergency managers, local TV meteorologist, as well as several of the Amarillo NWS staff. The appreciation picnic is just one way the NWS in Amarillo wishes to recognize and show their gratitude for all their volunteers, partners, and valued customers. It is also a great way for the spotters and cooperative observers to learn more about NWS operations, meet the NWS staff, and get to know each other. To see photos of this years event, click here.

A huge thanks to our sponsors this year! Walmart of Amarillo donated all the food, beverages, and many of the door prizes. Radio Shack at Westgate Mall also donated a NOAA weather radio as a door prize. The success of the event would not be possible without their generous support!

A special thanks to Patrick Robertson of Kool 99.3 KEFH-FM radio station from Clarendon, TX. For the second consecutive year, Patrick provided music for the picnic which included rock & roll music from the 50s through the 80s and a mix of country music classics. “The entertainment provided by KEFH-FM really adds to the fun!” said Warning Coordination Meteorologist Steve Drillette.. “We really appreciate his time and he does a fantastic job!” Listen to his show Monday through Friday from 6 pm - 10 pm. Patrick also hosts the all request show “Flashback” on Saturday nights from 7 pm - midnight.

Plans are already underway for the 2005 picnic. The tentative date is Saturday, August 13th.



Winter Outlook

by Jim Wingenroth

The 2004-2005 Winter outlook calls for below average temperatures across the gulf coast states as well as the southeastern U.S. and the mid-Atlantic region. Here at home, we have equal chances of warmer, cooler or near normal temperatures this winter. As for precipitation, wetter than average conditions can be expected over the southeastern half of Texas and much of Louisiana. Drier than average conditions are expected across the Pacific Northwest, the northern Plains and the Midwest. The Texas and Oklahoma panhandles can expect equal chances of wetter, drier or near normal precipitation. Click here for the temperature graphic and here for the precipitation graphic.

With all this being said, you may wonder what influences the weather patterns to produce this forecasted outcome. The result is three fold. First, a weak to moderate El-Nino event is expected to occur this winter. El Nino, meaning the Christ child because of its presence usually becoming evident near Christmas time, is a result of warmer than normal sea-surface temperatures (SST) found across the tropical Pacific. Its counterpart, La-Nina, is below normal SST’s occurring in the tropical Pacific. During an El Nino event, winter weather patterns across the U.S. are affected by a change in the jet stream level winds, which alter storm paths across the Pacific and North America. As a result, seasonal variations may occur.

Secondly, an event called the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), also plays an important role in weather patterns mainly across the eastern U.S. The NAO can affect storm strength and storm tracks with systems crossing the Atlantic ocean from the eastern U.S. to Europe, by modulating circulation patterns. The NAO is most pronounced during the winter months. An index has been created that represents the phase of the NAO. A positive NAO index phase will result in mild and wet winters over the eastern U.S. , with stronger and more frequent storms crossing the Atlantic ocean on a more northern track. A negative NAO index phase will result in less storms crossing the Atlantic ocean into Europe, with more frequent cold air outbreaks and hence snowier winters over the eastern U.S.

The third event is called the Pacific/North American (PNA) Pattern. The PNA pattern results in changes to the strength and position of the jet stream winds over the eastern North Pacific and North America. During a positive phase PNA pattern, warmer and drier than average conditions exist over western North America, with wetter, cooler and stormier conditions over the Southeastern U.S. This positive phase usually coincides with weak to moderate El Nino events.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC), located in Camp Springs, Maryland, are two of nine national centers for environmental prediction which serves the public by assessing and forecasting these events. For more information, please visit the following link: http://www.ncep.noaa.gov/

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