000
FGUS62 KALR 161704
ESGALR

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN REGION
NWS SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER, ATLANTA, GA
1150 AM EST THU FEB 16 2006

EASTERN REGION ONLY -- NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA

EXISTING CONDITIONS

SOIL MOISTURE -- WIDESPREAD SOIL MOISTURE DEFICITS ARE NOTED ACROSS 
THE ENTIRE REGION.  DEFICITS ARE MOST NOTABLE FOR UPPER SOIL 
MOISTURE DUE TO WELL-BELOW-NORMAL WINTER RAINFALL.  LONGER-TERM 
(LOWER) SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE NORMAL RANGE DUE TO NORMAL OR 
ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL IN 2005.

DROUGHT MONITOR -- ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE REPORTED OVER ALL 
OF THE AREA, WITH D0 INDICATORS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.  ONE 
DROUGHT IMPACT WAS REPORTED IN WAKE COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA FOR 
WATER/ENERGY CONCERNS.  THIS D0 AREA HAS REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY 
SINCE THE START OF 2006 AND IS LIKELY NEARING THE D1 DROUGHT 
CRITERIA IN SPOTS.

SHORT-TERM DROUGHT INDICATOR BLENDS INDICATED NEUTRAL TO D0 
PERCENTILES (20 TO 70 PERCENT OF NORMAL), WHILE LONGER-TERM BLENDS 
WERE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE, WITH PERCENTILES RANGING FROM 30 TO 90 
PERCENT.

AVERAGE DAILY STREAM FLOW IS RUNNING WELL-BELOW-NORMAL ALONG AND 
EAST OF INTERSTATE 85, AND CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WESTERN QUARTER 
OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. HIGHER ELEVATIONS 
OF THIS AREA HAVE RECEIVED NORMAL WINTER RAINFALL RESULTING IN THE 
CONTINUING RECHARGE OF THESE SMALLER STREAMS.

ACROSS A SWATH OF CENTRAL NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...DAILY STREAM 
FLOW IS RUNNING LESS THAN 10 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

PAST RAINFALL -- LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN 
OVER THIS AREA WITHIN THE PAST WEEK.  FOR BOTH THE PAST MONTH AND 
YEAR TO DATE, MUCH OF THIS AREA HAS RECEIVED ONLY ONE THIRD OF 
NORMAL RAINFALL.

RESERVOIR CONSIDERATIONS -- POOL LEVELS OF MOST MAJOR RESERVOIRS 
WITHIN THIS AREA ARE RUNNING BELOW THE "RULE CURVE," OR TARGET 
LEVELS, FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  CONSEQUENTLY, THIS MIGHT LEAD 
TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL OUTFLOWS OVER THE LATE WINTER AND SPRING MONTHS 
AS RESERVOIR OPERATORS RAISE POOL ELEVATIONS.

METEOROLOGICAL OUTLOOK -- IN THE SHORT TERM, THROUGH THE END OF 
FEBRUARY, RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA, 
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CAROLINA.  AT LEAST THREE SEPARATE WEATHER 
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THIS REGION.  WHILE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL 
IS NOT ANTICIPATED, ENOUGH RAIN SHOULD FALL TO AT LEAST SLIGHTLY 
IMPROVE UPPER SOIL MOISTURE.

LONGER TERM, THE OUTLOOK IS NOT AS CLEAR.  WEAK LA NINA CONDITIONS 
CHARACTERIZE THE PREDOMINANT CLIMATE SIGNAL.  THE MARCH RAINFALL 
OUTLOOK CALLS FOR OVERALL NORMAL RAINFALL, WHILE THE LONGER-TERM 
TREND FROM MARCH THROUGH MAY CALLS FOR BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL.  THIS 
IS CONSISTENT WITH A WEAK LA NINA SIGNAL.

IN THIS AREA, DURING LA NINA CONDITIONS, RAINFALL OF 25 TO 50 
PERCENT OF NORMAL IS COMMON DURING THE SPRING.

OUTLOOK...WHILE SHORT-TERM ABOVE-NORMAL RAINFALL WILL TEND TO SLIGHTLY 
IMPROVE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF FEBRUARY, LONGER-TERM 
BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL DUE TO LA NINA CONDITIONS, COMBINED WITH 
EXISTING SOIL MOISTURE AND STREAM FLOW DEFICITS, INDICATES A NORMAL 
TO BELOW-NORMAL CHANCE FOR SPRING FLOODING.

SERFC WATER WATCH TEAM
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