000
AGUS72 KALR 031615
HMDALR
ALR

HYDROLOGIST FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER / ATLANTA, GA
1141 AM EDT SUN SEP 03 2006 

ATTENTION/ AREA AFFECTED WFO: AKQ ILM MHX RAH RNK 

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR BASINS IN NC/VA: 

... NE CAPE FEAR CRESTING AT CHINQUAPIN ...

THE NE CAPE FEAR HAS BEGUN A SLOW RECESSION AT
CHINQUAPIN. WHILE THERE IS STILL WATER YET TO
COME FROM UPSTREAM... THE MAJORITY OF THE WATER
IN THIS EVENT WAS LOCAL INFLOW... SO THE RIVER
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP. AT BURGAW THE RIVER IS
BEGINNING TO LEVEL OFF. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL 
CREST TONIGHT ABOUT HALF A FOOT BELOW MAJOR
FLOOD STAGE. A VERY SLOW RECESSION IS FORECAST
AT BURGAW TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INFLOW FROM
CHINQUAPIN.

THE BLACKWATER RIVER AT DENDRON CRESTED AT 
9.27 FT... WHICH CORRESPONDS TO A FLOW OF ABOUT
4400 CFS. FROM THE PEAK STREAMFLOW DATA ON THE
USGS WEBSITE... ONLY 11 OUT OF THE 65 YEARS OF
RECORD HAD A HIGHER PEAK. THE RIVER IS SLOWLY 
STARTING TO CREST NOW AT FRANKLIN... AND IS
EXPECTED TO REACH 15.8 FT... JUST A COUPLE 
TENTHS BELOW MAJOR FLOOD.

THE NEUSE RIVER AT KINSTON MAY JUST BRUSH FLOOD 
STAGE TONIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO RECEDE. THE
CONTENTNEA CREEK AT HOOKERTON REMAINS JUST OVER 
A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE... AND WILL REMAIN
STEADY OR FALL VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

ON THE TAR RIVER... AT TARBORO THE RIVER WILL 
BARELY GET ABOVE ACTION STAGE TONIGHT BEFORE 
BEGINNING ITS RECESSION. AT GREENVILLE... THE
TAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO RISE VERY SLOWLY OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... FINALLY CRESTING 
ABOUT A FOOT AND A HALF ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

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THE SERFC IS INTERESTED IN THE USEFULNESS OF THIS
PRODUCT AND WELCOMES YOUR COMMENTS OR FEEDBACK ON 
HOW THIS WAS USED IN YOUR OPERATIONS. PLEASE SEND
ANY COMMENTS TO....JOHN.FELDT@NOAA.GOV


...SERFC...




$$