000
AGUS72 KALR 271852
HMDALR
ALR

HYDROLOGIST FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER / ATLANTA, GA
104 PM EST WED FEB 27 2008 

ATTENTION/ AREA AFFECTED WFOS: CHS FFC JAX TAE 

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR PORTIONS OF GA AND FL: 

... CHIPOLA RIVER NEAR CREST AT ALTHA ...

THE CHIPOLA RIVER IS CLOSE TO DROPPING BELOW FLOOD 
STAGE AT MARIANNA... AND IS CLOSE TO CREST AT ALTHA.
AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE ALTHA WILL DROP OUT OF
MODERATE FLOOD LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. NO
RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... AND
THE CURRENT LEVEL AT ALTHA CORRELATES ROUGHLY VIA
CREST-TO-CREST RELATIONSHIP WITH MARIANNA'S CREST 
OF 21 FT... SO THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AT
THIS TIME.

THE FORECAST FOR THE APALACHICOLA AT BLOUNTSTOWN 
HAS BEEN UPDATED TWICE ALREADY TODAY DUE TO 
CHANGING RELEASE PROJECTIONS AT WOODRUFF. THE 
LATEST FORECAST DOES SHOW THE RIVER DROPPING BELOW 
FLOOD STAGE THURSDAY MORNING.

THE MODEL USUALLY DOES QUITE WELL WITH THE ALTAMAHA 
RIVER AT BAXLEY ONCE UPSTREAM INFLOWS ARE KNOWN. AT
THIS POINT A CONTINUED SLOW RISE IS EXPECTED...
CRESTING ABOUT A HALF FOOT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE ON
SATURDAY.

THE SATILLA RIVER AT WAYCROSS IS EXPECTED TO CREST
RIGHT AROUND FLOOD STAGE ON SATURDAY. AT ATKINSON
THE RIVER WILL CREST A LITTLE MORE THAN TWO FEET
ABOVE FLOOD. WHILE THIS IS A BIT MORE THAN MIGHT
BE EXPECTED FROM THE CREST-TO-CREST RELATIONSHIPS
WITH WAYCROSS AND OFFERMAN... THERE WAS A FAIR 
AMOUNT OF HEAVY RAIN BETWEEN OFFERMAN AND ATKINSON
... SO HIGHER UNMEASURED FLOWS ON THE LITTLE SATILLA 
MAY BE THE CULPRIT.

THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE AT CARYVILLE SHOULD DROP BELOW 
FLOOD TONIGHT. RECESSIONS ARE WELL UNDERWAY 
UPSTREAM... AND WITH NO RAIN IN THE NEAR FUTURE THIS 
ONE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD TOO.

THE OCMULGEE RIVER AT ABBEVILLE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY 
STEADY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. UPSTREAM...MACON
AND HAWKINSVILLE ARE SHOWING SOME MINOR UPS AND 
DOWNS WHICH SHOULD ATTENUATE BEFORE ARRIVING AT
ABBEVILLE. THE OHOOPEE AT REIDSVILLE HAS BEGUN A 
SLOW FALL.

MCGEHEE
-------------------------------------------------
THE SERFC IS INTERESTED IN THE USEFULNESS OF THIS
PRODUCT AND WELCOMES YOUR COMMENTS OR FEEDBACK ON 
HOW THIS WAS USED IN YOUR OPERATIONS. PLEASE SEND
ANY COMMENTS TO....JOHN.FELDT@NOAA.GOV


...SERFC...




$$