000
AGUS72 KALR 101618
HMDALR
ALR

HYDROLOGIST FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER / ATLANTA, GA
1200 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2008 

ATTENTION/ AREA AFFECTED WFO: ALR AKQ 

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE MEHERRIN RIVER BASIN: 

...LAWRENCEVILLE EXPECTED TO CREST JUST ABOVE FLOOD...

HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA IN THE PAST 
36 HOURS HAS PRODUCED SHARP RISES ON THE UPPER MEHERRIN RIVER. AT 
LAWRENCEVILLE...UPDATED FORECAST TO CREST RIGHT AT FLOOD STAGE IN 
THE EARLY AFTERNOON BASED ON OVERALL UNDERSIMULATED MODEL RUNOFF AND 
MOREOVER CURRENT OBSERVATION TRENDS. SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH MORE VOLUME 
LEFT TO KEEP RISING BASED ON THE RAINFALL.  SURPRISINGLY MUCH SHARPER 
RISE THAN EXPECTED COMPARED TO THE CURRENT MODEL UNIT HYDROGRAPH ESPECIALLY 
GIVEN THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL IN THE BASIN.  RUNOFF EFFICIENCY 
AND OR TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL WITHIN THE 6 HOUR TIMESTEP 
MAY HAVE PLAYED A ROLE HERE.  OVERALL...THINK WE WILL HAVE A FEW HOURS 
OF MINOR FLOODING HERE AND SHOULD BE BACK BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY LATE 
AFTERNOON.

JD

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THE SERFC IS INTERESTED IN THE USEFULNESS OF THIS
PRODUCT AND WELCOMES YOUR COMMENTS OR FEEDBACK ON 
HOW THIS WAS USED IN YOUR OPERATIONS. PLEASE SEND
ANY COMMENTS TO....JOHN.FELDT@NOAA.GOV


...SERFC...




$$