On August 30th, the SERFC was disseminating information and forecasts highlighting the threat for significant river flooding in addition to flash flooding across parts of the central and eastern North Carolina into sections of coastal Southeastern Virginia.  

A slight eastward shift in the track of Ernesto late on August 31st made a critical difference in the axis of the heaviest rain. The heaviest rain ended up falling across portions of coastal North Carolina into eastern Virginia, sparing South Carolina and central portions of North Carolina from widespread tropical rains and significant flooding.  The images below highlight the expected track of Ernesto shifted eastward with time. This shift in track forecast would also make changes to the forecast area of heavy rainfall and thus have an affect on river forecasts across the region.

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