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Existing National Weather Service river forecasts, without AHP Service capabilities, generally provide only short-term (1, 2 or 3 day) deterministic forecast products.Since AHP Services provide forecasts for flow conditions ranging from floods to droughts, its forecast products are beneficial to both water resource and emergency managers.AHP Services enable the provision of more forecast information in both time and space. This flood-forecast display presents information on the likelihood an area will be flooded during a forecasted time period. This particular (hypothetical) display shows areas with a 75- to 100-percent, green; 50- to 75-percent, yellow; 25- to 50-percent; red; and less than 25-percent, white, chance of being flooded within the next month.Following the Great Flood of 1993 in the Mississippi and Missouri River basins, the NWS set out to demonstrate AHP Services technology. That demonstration occurred in March of 1997. An initial step in the demonstration was to meet with our users: FEMA USACE USGS City of Des Moines Local Water Works Management and State Emergency Managers These users shared with us their preferences for AHP Service products as listed. They also suggested that the demonstration include the distribution of these products via the World Wide Web.Conservative estimateAHP Services provide for the coupling of short-term meteorological forecasts and longer-term climatologic predictions. This coupling leads to the provision of more accurate longer lead time water quantity forecasts, thus, the resulting list of beneficiaries. Recalling the Nation's response to the NWS Climate Prediction Center climate predictions during the recent El Nino -- "percent wetter than normal" vs "percent dryer than normal" at a regional scale -- with AHPS we would have had additional water quantity information at a local river basin scale to go along with the climate predictions.Using very conservative estimates References indicate these benefits could be increased by a factor of 2 to 5.Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services Program ObjectiveAHP Services benefitsNOAA's Role in Hydrologic ForecastingAHPS moves NWS customers away from a "reactive scenario" to a "proactive scenario." The figures on the left of this slide portray the limits of non-AHP Services hydrologic forecasting capabilities, i.e., the provision of forecasts (hydrographs) out a few days for a single point along a river. The figures on the right of the slide indicate how AHPS provides products with more temporal and spatial information.The need for advanced services is exemplified through a review of the costs flooding has placed upon our Nation.Floods have cost our Nation $3.6 billion per year over the past 20-years. Over the past 5 years, this average has more than doubled.This slide presents an example use of the information provided by an AHP Services forecast. Existing operational forecasting technology is represented by the 3-day stage (water surface elevation) forecast. The AHP Services forecast is represented by the 7-day forecast which presents the maximum likely-to-occur event (in this case, the 50 percent level) as well as the percent likelihood other river elevations will exist or be exceeded 7 days from the time of the forecast. This slide's example indicates the levee will have a less than 10 percent chance of being overtopped. Similar to Scenario 1, this forecast presents a 3-day forecast below the top of the levee. However, the 7-day AHP Services forecast indicates a 40-percent likelihood the levee will be overtopped by the river. Even though the AHP Services forecast reveals a maximum likely-to-occurr event (50 percentile) being below the levee's crest on the 7th day, an emergency manager may choose to take mitigative action for this section of the river.Scenario 3 indicates the river will have a safe elevation in 3-days and a 25-percent chance of overtopping the levee in 7 days. With this information, an emergency manager may choose to take mitigative action or at least remain informed on future river forecasts.The website for the Des Moines River basin AHPS forecast products is maintained by the NWS forecast office in Des Moines, Iowa. By clicking on the "water" icon on this homepage, the screen switches to a section providing AHPS and other hydrologic forecast information.The Des Moines River basin webpage for the AHPS products presents information on the location of AHPS forecast sites within the Des Moines river basin. AHPS products for the forecast location are provided once the user clicks on the red dot or the forecast site name found in the side bar.Having clicked on a forecast site of interest, in this case a downtown Des Moines forecast location, the opportunity of viewing a list of AHPS forecast products is provided. The list of AHP Service products is presented in the side bar to the left of this screen. The web page in this slide presents information on the river elevation as it occurred during the past two days (blue hydrograph) and as it is forecasted for the next 3 days (red hydrograph). This product makes use of the NWS 24-hour quantitative precipitation forecast and a regionalized watershed rainfall-runoff model.AHP Services enable the display of its forecasts in many formats. This graph presents the likelihood for many river levels (stages) being exceeded during a forecasted time period (in this case, 90 days). This product is valuable to a user having a interest in a particular river level. For example, with this graph, should an emergency manager have a response plan calling for action once there is a 30 percent or greater likelihood the river level will exceed a stage of 23 feet during the next 90 days, the response to the information of this chart would be no action. This chart indicates a 12 percent likelihood for the river level to meet or exceed a stage of 23 feet.AHP Services provide spatial displays of areas forecasted to be flooded. This display is for an actual forecast, unlike the previous slide depicting a hypothetical event.The Des Moines website provides other useful information for the AHPS forecast station. This map identifies the location for the forecast station.The website also provides photographs of the forecast location during normally experienced flow conditions.A stage-damage table provides historical information depicting impacts to the surrounding area at various river stages (levels). Another AHPS product type provides additional information on the range of likely to occur events. The displayed product presents the mean and standard deviation about the mean for the maximum mean-daily river discharge.Additional information on the AHPS program may be obtained by writing to AHPS@noaa.govNOAA's National Weather Service (NWS) provides hydrologic (river and flash-flood) forecasts using it's infrastructure of 13 regional River Forecast Centers (RFCs) and approximately 120 Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs). The AHP Services program builds upon: (1) partnerships with other water cooperators (federal, state, multistate, quasi-governmental, and private sector organizations); (2) the modernized NWS; and (3) the NWS infrastructure including the 120 WFOs, the 13 RFCs, and the NWS River Forecast System (NWSRFS), a very large software system used by RFC hydrologists to produce forecasts of time series of discharge and/or stages at selected locations (approximately 4,000) along the Nation's rivers.AHPS builds upon: (1) partnerships with other water cooperators (federal, state, multistate, quasi-governmental, and private sector organizations); (2) the modernized NWS; and (3) the NWS infrastructure including the 119 Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs), the 13 River Forecast Centers (RFCs), and the NWS River Forecast System (NWSRFS), a very large software system used by RFC hydrologists to produce forecasts of time series of discharges and/or stages at selected locations (approximately 4,000) along the Nation's rivers.AHPS expands the capabilities and supports enhancements to NOAA's goal to provide short- to longer-term (hours to days to several months) operational forecast products. In turn, these products provide for disaster mitigation, due to floods and droughts, and water resource management. AHP Services are provided using historical and forecasted weather and climate data from the NWS, and the application of stream gaged data, channel cross-section data and water facility operations information from other federal and local agencies (i.e., US Geological Survey, US Department of Agriculture, US Army Corps of Engineers and the US Bureau of Reclamantion.)The Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services program provides for the local implemenation of advanced NWS River Forecast System (NWSRFS) river forecasting science procedures. These procedures account for the hydrologic characteristics of each local river watershed and each tributary which will greatly increase forecast accuracy. AHPS provides forecasts of river levels and river flow volumes from days to several months in advance of the event. AHPS also provides new inform