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What is AHPS?
Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Services (AHPS) are a new and essential component of our Climate,
Water, and Weather Services. AHPS is a web-based suite of accurate and
information-rich forecast products. They display the magnitude and
uncertainty of occurrence of floods or droughts, from hours to days and months,
in advance. These graphical products are useful information and planning
tools for many economic and emergency managers. These new products will
enable government agencies, private institutions, and individuals to make more
informed decisions about risk based policies and actions to mitigate the dangers
posed by floods and droughts.
Why AHPS?
Weather influences
our economic and social lives in many ways. Severe weather can have
impact on revenues and profits of businesses, large and small.
Weather can also disrupt and disorganize communities. As our
nation's population grows and infrastructure costs increase, natural
disasters can threaten social stability. Weather forecasting was
initially developed in response to the need of societies to protect
themselves from storms, severe heat and cold, floods, etc., and minimize
consequent economic losses. It is estimated that inland flooding
claims 133 lives and property losses from flooding exceed $4 billion in an
average year in the U.S. The National Weather Service (NWS) is our
nation's agency entrusted with the mission to protect life and property
and to enhance the economy.
Brief
Background
Impelled by
experiences with major floods in 1993 in the Midwest, the Des Moines river
basin was selected as a test site for AHPS product development. The
successful demonstration of AHPS on the Des Moines river was favorably
received by local water resource and emergency management agencies.
The devastating floods in the upper Midwest and Plains states in 1997
provided an increased sense of urgency. Since then, the NWS has
finalized plans to expand implementation of AHPS to our offices in
Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Iowa, Missouri and North Dakota covering
different river basins in coming years. The expansion also includes
tributaries within the Ohio River basin in parts of Kentucky, Ohio, and
western Pennsylvania.
While floods
are impossible to prevent completely and there is not way to guarantee
protection of property, the NWS and other federal, state, and local
agencies have proved the loss of life can be greatly reduced with better
forecasting.
How are
AHPS Products Developed?
Using sophisticated
computer models and large amounts of data from a wide variety of sources
such as super computers, automated gauges, geostationary (GOES)
satellites, Doppler radars, weather observation stations, and the computer
and communications system, called the Advanced Weather Interactive
Processing System (AWIPS), the NWS provides hydrologic forecasts for
almost 4,000 locations across the United States. These forecasts are
developed by our River Forecast centers and distributed by our field
offices for a wide range of customers.
What are the Components
of AHPS?
The current group of AHPS
products covers forecast periods ranging from hours to months. It
also includes valuable information about the chances of flood or
drought. This information is presented through user-friendly
graphical products. The products are identified by the logo. The information, such as the flood forecast level to which a
river will rise and when it is likely to reach its peak or crest, is shown
through hydrographs. Other information includes,
1.) the chance or probability of a river exceeding minor, moderate, or
major flooding,
2.) the chance of a river exceeding certain level, volume, and flow of
water at specific points on the river during 90 day periods, and
3.) a map of areas surrounding the forecast point that provides
information about major roads, railways, landmarks, etc. likely to be
flooded, the levels of past floods, etc.
An additional feature of
the AHPS Web site is a map of the river basin and various points along the
river for which information is available. The data are not limited
to information about floods, but can also provide information about
potential droughts. This core suite may change over time reflecting
the changing needs communicated by customers.
Who Can Use AHPS?
AHPS forecast products are a
basis for operation and management of flood-control structures.
Emergency management officials at local and state levels use these
forecasts to fight floods, evacuate residents, and to take other measures
to mitigate the impact of flooding. As the population grows, people
increasingly choose to live near water, creating an increased need for the
NWS to educate the public about flood hazards and to improve flood
forecasts. These products can be used by a wide range of people,
such as barge operators, power companies, recreational users, farmers,
households, businesses, and environmentalists.
Be In Touch
We would appreciate your feedback on these new AHPS forecast
products. Let us know if they were helpful to you. What can we
do to make them more relevant to you?
Find Out More about AHPS
Additional information on the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service may
be obtained on line at http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/ahps.
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www.nws.noaa.gov 
