NWS Southern Region River Forecast Centers perform categorical forecast verification for all flood forecasts. To view ABRFC categorical verification click here. To view categorical forecast verification for all Southern Region River Forecast Centers click here.
2016 Daily Forecast Verification Data
The above chart shows the verification numbers from all the river forecasts issued for daily forecast points within the ABRFC from January 2016 through December 2016. For each month in this period, the average RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) in feet of all the daily forecast points is listed; the QPF RMSE, the non-QPF RMSE, and finally a RMSE for Persistence. Persistence assumes no skill in forecasting; ie...the current stage is forecast for all periods. Below are graphs to view verification data for individual daily forecast points for each month.