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Water Supply Flood Potential Outlook

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Flood Potential Outlook

National Weather Service, ABRFC, Tulsa, Oklahoma

205 PM CST, Thursday, Feb 21, 2008



			COLORADO 

		-- ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN--

		

The Rocky Mountains



The potential for flood conditions will be near normal this spring. 

Conditions in the mountains of southeast Colorado will be reexamined 

in the Spring Flood Outlook to be issued March 6, 2008.



The mountains of the Arkansas River basin have experienced 

approximately 136 percent of normal precipitation and have 

accumulated 166 percent of normal snowpack this water year (a more 

detailed table is included below).  This water-year's precipitation, 

to date, is about 122 percent of last year's. At the end of January, 

average reservoir contents in the Arkansas River basin in Colorado 

were 71 percent of capacity.  This represents 119 percent of average 

storage and 120 percent of last year's storage.





     S N O W  -  P R E C I P I T A T I O N    U P D A T E

 

         Based on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites

               As of WEDNESDAY: February 20, 2008 

--------------------------------------------------------------------

BASIN              ELEV. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT   TOTAL PRECIPITATION

Data Site Name    (Ft)                      %                      %  

                        Current  Average  Avg  Current  Average  Avg

--------------------------------------------------------------------



ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN



 APISHAPA         10000    13.8   5.8     238   10.9     8.4     130 

 BRUMLEY          10600    10.5   7.2     146   13.7     9.7     141 

 FREMONT PASS     11400    15.2  12.0     127   15.3    11.4     134 

 PORPHYRY CREEK   10760    17.4  11.7     149   15.8    11.0     144 

 SOUTH COLONY     10800    25.2  13.5     187   27.2    18.0     151 

 WHISKEY CK       10220    11.0   7.5     147   13.3    11.3     118 

                                         -----                  -----

          Basin wide percent of average   166                    136 



Units = inches for the Current and Average Snow Water Equivalent and 

	  Total Precipitation values





Through the spring months (MAR-APR-MAY), the Climate Prediction 

Center is forecasting increased chances (40-50%) of experiencing 

above-normal, temperatures. Outlooks indicate an increased 

chance (33-40%) of below-normal precipitation for the same period.



Flooding at most forecast points in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado 

is driven by rapid snowpack runoff or isolated, high-intensity 

rainfall. While snowpack points toward slightly wetter than average 

hydrologic conditions, this does not necessarily indicate an 

increased, long-term, potential for spring flooding in the Arkansas 

River basin.  



Current conditions represent slightly wetter than average conditions 

above Pueblo and Trinidad Reservoirs.  The ESP model indicates a 

greater than 50 percent chance of flooding at only one forecast 

point (Canon City).  The table below contains a summary of the 

maximum likely stages from the model output.    



                  Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

                    As of Wednesday: February 20, 2008

                        February 20-June 19

						     Weekly

		Flood	       50% exceedance    50% exceedance 

  Station	Stage(ft)   Maximum Stage (ft)  Maximum Stage (ft)

------------------------------------------------------------------

 Leadville 	5.0          	4.2                 3.8

 Salida		9.0      	6.1                 5.6

 Wellsville	9.0      	7.0                 6.7

 Parkdale	9.0      	6.7                 5.9

 Canon City	9.0      	9.4                 9.0

 Portland	9.0      	6.4                 5.6

 Pueblo		8.0      	6.7                 6.3







The Southeastern Plains



The potential for flood conditions will be near normal this spring. 

Conditions in the plains of southeast Colorado will be reexamined 

in the Spring Flood Outlook to be issued March 6, 2008.



There is little to no snowpack east of the Rocky Mountains. Soil 

moisture in the plains of southeast Colorado is normal with values 

between the 30th and 70th percentiles. Rainfall for the last 90 days

has been normal to below normal in the southeastern quarter of 

Colorado. The Arkansas River is generally flowing at normal levels 

while Fountain Creek is flowing at normal to above-normal levels.  



Flooding in Colorado is generally driven by rapid snowpack runoff or 

isolated, high-intensity rainfall. A normal probability of flooding 

for southeastern Colorado indicates a low probability of flooding 

throughout the area.  The ESP model indicates a greater than 50 

percent chance of flooding at only one forecast point (La Junta).  

The table below shows the probability of flooding during the next 

120 days at 4 forecast points. 



               Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

                As of Wednesday: February 20, 2008



Fcst. Point % Probability   % Probability	% Probability 

Station	    Minor Flooding  Moderate Flooding	Major Flooding

ID

ARCC2		Not Expected	Not Expected	Not Expected

LXHC2		65		12		 6

LAPC2		17		 7		 6		

LMAC2		 8		 4		 3



The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates the mountains of southeastern 

Colorado are not experiencing any drought conditions.  Drought 

conditions in the plains of southeastern Colorado range from 

abnormally dry to moderate drought. According to the Climate 

Prediction Center's U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, drought 

conditions along the Colorado-Kansas-Oklahoma tri-state border 

region are expected to persist or intensify over the next 2 months.





   *******************************************************

   *                                                     *

   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *

   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *

   *                                                     *

   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php     *

   *                                                     *

   *******************************************************





$$





			SOUTHERN KANSAS



The potential for flood conditions in southern Kansas will be near 

normal this spring. Most flooding in Kansas is directly related to 

specific precipitation events. Therefore, currently wet conditions 

do not necessarily indicate an increased risk of spring flooding. 

Conditions will be reexamined in the Spring Flood Outlook to be 

issued March 6, 2008.



Rainfall during the last 90 days has been above normal to well-above 

normal across southern Kansas with a local maximum in excess of 250 

percent of average in the central part of Kansas. Recent rains have 

resulted in flooding in south-central and southwest Kansas.    



Soil moisture across southern Kansas is generally above average 

(70th-90th percentile) at this time.  Soil-moisture percentiles 

increase to a maximum in the south-central part of the state. 



Streamflow percentiles increase from west to east across southern

Kansas.  In southwest Kansas, streamflows are near normal.  In 

south-central Kansas streamflows are normal to above normal.  Recent 

rains in southeastern Kansas have raised streamflows there to well-

above normal conditions. 



Reservoir storage in southern Kansas is approximating average 

conditions.  U.S. Corps of Engineers data indicates that Corps 

projects in southern Kansas currently have an average of 93 percent 

of their flood control storage available at this time.



Through the spring months (MAR-APR-MAY), the Climate Prediction 

Center's outlook for southern Kansas calls for increased chances 

(33-40%) of experiencing above-normal temperatures. The outlook also 

indicates increased chances (33-40%) of below-normal precipitation 

for the same period.



The table below presents information for Dodge City forecast points 

where the model indicates a chance of flooding. Unlike last year at 

this time, there is no substantial snowpack in the plains of 

Colorado or western Kansas. Current model output indicates that 

chances of minor flooding in western Kansas are low (< 10%).  



		Select Points in Western Kansas

            Kansas Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

             As of Wednesday: February 20, 2008



Fcst. Point	% Probability	   % Probability      % Probability 

Station		Minor Flooding	  Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding

ID

COOK1		      4		 Not Expected	      Not Expected

BETK1		      4		 Not Expected	      Not Expected

RCNK1		      4		 Not Expected	      Not Expected

ZENK1		      9		 	8		    7





Most flooding in south-central and southeast Kansas is also related 

to specific rainfall events.  The ESP model reflects currently wet 

conditions but does not necessarily indicate an increased 

probability of spring flooding in that area.  Currently elevated 

river stages and saturated soils resulted in elevated probabilities 

of flooding for the eastern two-thirds of southern Kansas.  If the 

region experiences average climatic conditions, river stages and 

soil moisture should return to more typical conditions as the spring 

unfolds.   



The table below presents those Wichita and Topeka forecast points for 

which ESP indicated a greater than 35% chance of minor flooding.  

Again, this is not an extreme condition and does not necessarily 

reflect an above-average risk of flooding over the next 3 months.



 	Select Points in South-central and Southeast Kansas

            Kansas Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

             As of Wednesday: February 20, 2008



Fcst. Point	% Probability	   % Probability      % Probability 

Station		Minor Flooding	  Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding

ID

CBNK1		      40	 	 2	      Not Expected

CTWK1		      36	 	21	      Not Expected

FLRK1		      53	 	 2	      Not Expected

PLYK1		      45	 	26		    14

PPFK1		      38		33	      Not Expected

WFDK1		      45		26		    14

EMPK1		      52		30	      Not Expected

EPRK1		      40		36	      Not Expected

NEOK1		      42		 9	      Not Expected





The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates abnormally dry to moderate 

drought conditions exist in southwestern Kansas at this time.  These 

conditions give way to non-drought conditions as one moves from west 

to east across southern Kansas.  The Climate Prediction Center's US 

Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for drought conditions in western 

Kansas to intensify or persist for the next 2 months.             





   *******************************************************

   *                                                     *

   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *

   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *

   *                                                     *

   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php     *

   *                                                     *

   *******************************************************



$$

            



			SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

			

The potential for flood conditions in southwestern Missouri will be 

near normal this spring. Most flooding in southwest Missouri is 

related to specific rainfall events.  Therefore, currently wet 

conditions do not necessarily indicate an increased risk of spring 

flooding. Conditions will be reexamined in the Spring Flood Outlook 

to be issued March 6, 2008.



Rainfall over the last 90 days has been above normal to well-above 

normal across southwest Missouri. Soil moisture in southwestern 

Missouri is currently above average (70th-90th percentile). Stream 

flow in that part of the state ranges from above normal to well 

above normal. 



Through the spring months (MAR-APR-MAY), the Climate Prediction 

Center's outlook for southwestern Missouri calls for increased 

chances (33-40%) of experiencing above-normal temperatures. The 

outlook also indicates increased chances (33-40%) of below-normal 

precipitation for the same period.

 		

The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates there are no drought conditions

in southwestern Missouri at this time.  The Climate Prediction 

Center's  US Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for no changes in 

drought conditions over the next 2 months.





   *******************************************************

   *                                                     *

   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *

   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *

   *                                                     *

   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php     *

   *                                                     *

   *******************************************************



$$









             


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