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Water Supply Flood Potential Outlook

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Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service, ABRFC, Tulsa, Oklahoma
0935 CST, Wednesday, March 5, 2014

                          COLORADO 
                -- ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN--
		
The Rocky Mountains

The potential for flood conditions will be near normal this spring.
Flooding at most forecast points in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado
is driven by rapid snowpack runoff or isolated, high-intensity
rainfall.

As measured at high altitude SNOTEL monitoring stations, the 
mountains of the Arkansas River basin have received approximately
102 percent-of-median precipitation and have accumulated 100 
percent-of-median snowpack this water year. (A more detailed table 
is included below.)  At the end of February, mountain reservoirs in 
the Arkansas River basin (Turquoise, Twin Lakes, Pueblo) were, on 
average, at 82 percent-of-capacity. This represents 111 percent-of-
average storage and 132 percent of last year's storage.


    S N O W  -  P R E C I P I T A T I O N    U P D A T E
 
        Based on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites
              As of Sunday: March 1, 2015
-------------------------------------------------------------------
BASIN             ELEV. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT   TOTAL PRECIPITATION
Data Site Name   (Ft)                    %                     % 
                      Current  Median Median  Current Median Median
-------------------------------------------------------------------

ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN

APISHAPA         10000    2.9    6.8     43    9.3     9.5     98
BRUMLEY          10600   10.7    7.5    143   10.4    10.1    103
FREMONT PASS     11400   14.4   11.8    122   14.1    11.8    119
PORPHYRY CREEK   10760   12.7   12.1    105   11.3    11.8     96
SOUTH COLONY     10800   11.7   14.9     79   14.9    16.4     91
WHISKEY CK       10220    9.5    8.8    108   13.0    12.3    106
                                       -----                 -----
         Basin wide percent-of-average  100                   102
	  
Units = inches for the Current and Average Snow Water Equivalent
	and Total Precipitation values

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Seasonal Outlooks for winter and
early spring (MAR-APR-MAY) indicate equal chances of below-normal,
above-normal, or near-normal temperatures in the mountains of 
southeast Colorado. The precipitation outlook for the same period 
indicates increased chances (33%-40%) of above-median precipitation
in the plains of southeastern Colorado.  The chances increase 
(40%-50%) towards the mountains.
 
The U.S. Drought Monitor of February 24, 2015 indicates that the 
mountain headwaters of the Arkansas River are not currently 
experiencing drought conditions.  There are abnormally dry (D-0) 
conditions across the divide.  Conditions worsen to moderate drought 
(D-1) near the New Mexico border. As for the plains, severe drought 
(D-2) conditions dominate the extreme southeastern corner of 
Colorado. Conditions improve through moderate drought and abnormally
dry conditions until the monitor indicates drought free conditions 
just north of the Arkansas River. The CPC Drought Outlook of 
February 19, 2015 shows that drought conditions are not expected to 
develop or intensify in the next several months.

Current estimates from the CPC indicate that soils in the mountains
are near normal in terms of soil moisture, with values between the
30th and 70th percentiles.  

The Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) model does not indicate a 
greater than 50 percent chance of flooding at any forecast point.  
The table below contains a summary of some potential maximum stages
from the model output.

            Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
               As of Tuesday: March 3, 2015
                 March 3 - Jul 1 50% Exceedence
						    Weekly     
	     Flood         50% exceedence    	50% exceedence
  Station  Stage(ft)     Maximum Stage (ft)     Maximum Stage (ft)
------------------------------------------------------------------
 Leadville     9.0		  6.9		       6.7
 Salida        8.0		  4.4		       4.2
 Wellsville    9.0		  6.0		       5.7
 Parkdale      9.0		  5.0		       4.8
 Canon City   10.0		  7.9		       7.7
 Portland      9.0		  4.6		       4.2
 Pueblo        8.0		  6.7		       5.9


The Southeastern Plains

The potential for flood conditions will be below normal this spring.
Normal conditions for southeastern Colorado reflect a low probability
of flooding.

Visible satellite images and estimates from the National Operational
Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC) indicate only a light 
snowpack in the plains of southeast Colorado. The current plains 
snowpack is not expected to be hydrologically significant with 
regard to spring flooding. According to the CPC soil moisture 
estimates, the plains of the Arkansas Basin are generally near
normal with most values between the 30th and 70th percentiles. Some
areas in the northern portion of the Arkansas basin
are wetter with values between the 70th and 80th percentiles. 

According to the USGS stream gages, Fountain Creek and the mainstem
of the Arkansas River are both flowing at near-normal levels. The 
near-normal flows continue as far as downstream as John Martin 
Reservoir. Below that point, flow conditions drop below normal. At 
the end of February, reservoirs affecting the Arkansas River below 
Pueblo (Meredith, Trinidad, and John Martin) were, on average, at 40 
percent-of-capacity.  This represents 48 percent-of-average storage
and 126 percent of last year's storage.
 
The ESP model does not indicate any probabilities of flooding
greater than 50 percent. The table below shows the probability of
flooding during the next 120 days at four forecast points in the 
plains of southeast Colorado.

             Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
               As of Tuesday: March 3, 2015

Fcst Point    % Probability    % Probability      % Probability
Station      Minor Flooding  Moderate Flooding     Major Flooding
ID
ARCC2          Not Expected     Not Expected      Not Expected
LXHC2             57                 33                  8
LAPC2             15                  5                  4
LMAC2              5                  3                  2

Precipitation during the last 90 days has been mostly above-average.
There are widespread areas along the I-25 corridor that have received
one to two inches of precipitation in excess of the average for the
last 3 months. There are isolated but considerable areas that have
received two to four inches in excess of the average. 

Drought related conditions continue to affect the plains of 
southeastern Colorado but the intensity has lessened somewhat 
since last year. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor of 
February 24, 2015, areas along the I-25 corridor near Pueblo are free
of drought related conditions.  As one moves southeast, the drought 
conditions intensify through Abnormally Dry (D-0) and Moderate 
Drought (D-1) to Severe Drought (D-2) in the southeast corner of the 
state. The CPC drought outlook for the next 3 months indicates 
some improvement is likely in the most severely affected areas. 


   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
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   *******************************************************


		NEW MEXICO -- CANADIAN RIVER BASIN

The potential for spring flooding for northeastern New Mexico is
near normal. Normal conditions in northeast New Mexico reflect a 
low probability of flooding. Flooding in New Mexico is generally 
driven by rapid snow melt runoff or high-intensity rainfall. Current
conditions reflect the on-going drought that has been affecting the
region for the last several years. Dry conditions continue to 
dominate the region but are not as severe as last year. The mountains
especially have gotten some relief and are now in an area of moderate
drought (D-1). This is a modest improvement over last year.

The Sangre de Cristo Mountains mark the headwaters of the Canadian
River in New Mexico. These mountains have experienced about 106
percent-of-median precipitation this water year and have accumulated
106 percent-of-median snowpack. (A more detailed table
is included below.) The most recent basin-wide snowpack report from
the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) indicates the 
Canadian River basin snow-water equivalent is 83 percent of the 
historical median. 
 
          S N O W  -  P R E C I P I T A T I O N    U P D A T E
              Based on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites
                    As of Sunday: March 1, 2015
------------------------------------------------------------------
BASIN             ELEV. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT  TOTAL PRECIPITATION 
Data Site Name    (Ft)                   %                     %
                       Current Median Median Current Median Median
------------------------------------------------------------------
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAIN RANGE BASINS

 CULEBRA #2      10500   12.3    10.4   118    11.9    10.1   118
 GALLEGOS PEAK    9800    8.5     9.8    87    12.0    11.5   104
 NORTH COSTILLA  10600    7.1     5.9   120    11.4     9.9   115
 RED RVR PASS #2  9850    7.5     6.8   110     9.0     7.9   114
 TOLBY           10180    9.1     7.2   126    11.4    10.1   113
 TRINCHERA       10860    7.9     7.9   100     8.0     8.9    90
 WESNER SPGS     11120   10.1    12.1    83    13.0    14.4    90
                                       -----                 -----
       Basin wide percent-of-average    106                   106

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Seasonal Outlooks for 
northeastern New Mexico indicate there are equal chances of above-
normal, below-normal, and near-normal temperatures during the next 
three months. Precipitation outlooks for the same period indicate 
significantly increased chances (40%-50%) of above-median 
precipitation. 

Visible satellite imagery and snow cover models from National 
Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC) show minimal 
snowpack in the plains of northeastern New Mexico. Soils in the area
have retained some of the moisture they received during the rain
events in September. Soil moisture in northeastern New Mexico is near 
normal at this time, with estimates between the 30th and 70th 
percentiles.  

Most stream gages on the Canadian River and its tributaries are 
affected by ice at this time.  A generalized statement of current
streamflow is therefore, difficult to make. However, the Canadian
River at Sanchez is currently slightly below normal (30th percentile) 
while further downstream, the Canadian River at Logan is showing 
near-normal discharge. At the end of February, the contents of 
Conchas Reservoir constituted 33 percent of the reservoir capacity
and 42 percent-of-average contents at this date. Contents of Eagle 
Nest Reservoir were at 23 percent-of-capacity and 88 percent of
last year.
 
Water-year-to-date (October 1 to present) precipitation in north-
eastern New Mexico is near average or slightly above average. Wide-
spread areas have received over one inch more than their average
precipitation in the last 90 days. 

The U.S. Drought Monitor of February 24, 2015 indicates that Severe  
Drought (D2) conditions dominate the northeast corner of the state. 
Conditions improve to moderate drought (D-1) to the south and into
the mountain headwaters of the Canadian River. The CPC's US Seasonal 
Drought Outlook of February 19, 2015 calls for drought conditions to 
persist or intensify over the next three months.

A summary of some potential maximum stages from the ESP model output
are presented in the table below.

 
                 New Mexico Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
                    As of Tuesday: March 3, 2015
                      March 3 - Jun 1 50% Exceedence

                                                           Weekly          
                      Flood	 50% exceedence      50% exceedence
  Station            Stage(ft)  Maximum Stage (ft)  Maximum Stage(ft)
---------------------------------------------------------------------

 
Vermejo R @Dawson      9.0           5.6                 5.6
Cimarron R @Cimarron   5.0           2.7                 1.8
Mora R @Golondrinas    5.5           2.4                 2.1
 

   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
   *                                                     *
   *       www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/?n=water_supply        *
   *                                                     *
   *******************************************************


			SOUTHERN KANSAS

The potential for flood conditions in southern Kansas will be near
normal this spring.  Most flooding in Kansas is directly related to
specific precipitation events. Most hydrologically relevant 
conditions in southern Kansas reflect the ongoing drought.

Rainfall during the last 90 days has been low in the southeast 
corner of Kansas and has increased westward. A large area in the 
southeast corner received two to four inches less than average. In
contrast, a large area in the southwest corner of the state received
one to two inches more than the average. Precipitation in south-
central Kansas was about average over that same time period.
 
Snowpack estimates from the National Operational Hydrologic Remote 
Sensing Center (NOHRSC) indicate only a light snowpack in southern
Kansas. The current plains snowpack is not expected to be 
hydrologically significant with regard to spring flooding. Soil 
moisture conditions in southern Kansas are generally near normal with
estimates between the 30th and 70th percentiles. A small area in the 
extreme western edge of southern Kansas is slightly above normal, 
with values in between the 70th and 80th percentiles.    

Streamflows in western Kansas are generally much below normal, with 
discharges below the 25th percentile. Conditions worsen toward the 
southwest corner of the state with gages below the 10th percentile.

Reservoir storage in southern Kansas is slightly below design 
conditions. U.S. Corps of Engineers data indicate that Corps 
reservoirs currently have an average of 101 percent of their flood 
control storage available.

The Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) Seasonal Outlook (MAR-APR-MAY)
indicates there are slightly increased chances for above-
median precipitation in the extreme southwest corner of the state. 
Otherwise the outlooks indicate equal chances of above-normal, below-
normal, and near-normal temperatures and above-median, below-median,
and near-median precipitation across southern Kansas.  

The U.S. Drought Monitor of February 24, 2015 indicates Abnormally 
Dry (D0) to Extreme Drought (D3) conditions dominate southern 
Kansas at this time. Southwest Kansas is the driest area, with 
widespread Severe Drought (D2) conditions dominating the area and
worsening to Extreme Drought (D3) in a small area along the Oklahoma
border. The eastern half of southern Kansas is dominated by 
Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions that worsen to Moderate Drought (D1) 
as you travel westward. The US Seasonal Drought Outlook of 
February 19, 2015 indicates the drought in western Kansas should see 
some improvement across the state. The Outlook indicates drought 
conditions in southeastern Kansas should not develop or intensify. 

The table below displays the probability of flooding for selected
Dodge City forecast points. Current model output indicates that 
chances of minor flooding in western Kansas are low (< 15%).

                   Select Points in Western Kansas
               Kansas Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
                   As of Tuesday: March 3, 2015

Fcst. Point	% Probability	   % Probability      % Probability
Station	        Minor Flooding    Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding
ID
COOK1                 6                 4             Not Expected
BETK1                 4                 2             Not Expected
ENWK1                12                 3             Not Expected
FRGO2                 7                 4             Not Expected
RCNK1                 5                 3                  2
ZENK1                 9                 7             Not Expected
DDCK1                 2           Not Expected        Not Expected



The table below presents some south-central and southeast Kansas
forecast points where the ESP model indicates a greater than 15 
percent chance of minor flooding.  These are not extreme conditions 
and do not reflect an above-normal potential for flooding.

        Select Points in South-central and Southeast Kansas
               Kansas Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
                As of Tuesday: March 3, 2015

Fcst. Point	% Probability	   % Probability      % Probability
Station         Minor Flooding    Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding
ID
ALMK1               17                 14                  2
ARCK1               25                  4                  2
ARKK1               15                  3             Not Expected
ATOK1               23                  5             Not Expected
CBNK1               37            Not Expected        Not Expected
CNUK1               43                 19                  5
CFVK1               20                  8             Not Expected
CNUK1               32                 17             Not Expected
CTWK1               19                 13             Not Expected
EREK1               48                 36                  20
FLRK1               27                  2             Not Expected
FRNK1               25                  8             Not Expected
IDPK1               31            Not Expected        Not Expected
IOLK1               20                  2             Not Expected 
MDKK1               20                 10             Not Expected
MULK1               15                  3             Not Expected
OSWK1               55                 45                  7
OXFK1               19                 11                  2
PPFK1               56                 45             Not Expected
PLYK1               22                 12             Not Expected
WFDK1               16                 14                  5
EMPK1               28                 18             Not Expected
EPRK1               20                 15             Not Expected
NEOK1               27                 23             Not Expected 

   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
   *                                                     *
   *       www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/?n=water_supply        *
   *                                                     *
   *******************************************************


			SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
			
The potential for flood conditions in southwestern Missouri will be
near normal this spring. Most flooding in southwest Missouri is
related to specific rainfall events.  Therefore, current conditions
do not necessarily indicate an increased or decreased risk of spring
flooding.

Precipitation during the last 90 days has been below average, with 
widespread estimates of two to four inches below average. 

The Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) Seasonal Outlook (MAR-APR-MAY)
calls for equal chances of above-normal, below-normal, and 
near-normal temperatures and above-median, below-median, and near-
median precipitation across southwestern Missouri.

Snowpack estimates from the National Operational Hydrologic Remote 
Sensing Center (NOHRSC) indicate only a light snowpack in southwest
Missouri. This snowpack is not expected to be hydrologically 
significant, with regard to spring flooding. Soil moisture in 
southwest Missouri is currently near normal with a small area of 
slightly-below normal soils having moisture estimates between the 
20th and 30th percentiles. Streamflow in that part of the state is 
approaching normal for this time of year but most stations are below 
the 50th percentile.

The U.S. Drought Monitor of February 24, 2015 indicates most of 
southwestern Missouri is experiencing Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions. 
CPC's US Seasonal Drought Outlook of February 19, 2015 indicates 
little potential for the development or intensification of drought 
conditions.

The table below presents some southwestern Missouri forecast points 
where the ESP model indicated a greater than 10 percent chance of 
minor flooding.  These are not extreme conditions and do not reflect 
an above-normal potential for flooding.

                 Select Points in Southwest Missouri
                    Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
                   As of Tuesday: March 3, 2015

Fcst. Point	% Probability	   % Probability      % Probability 
Station		Minor Flooding	  Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding
ID
CHTM7               24                  8             Not Expected
TIFM7               30                 10                    4
WCOM7               25            Not Expected        Not Expected
BXTK1               23                 11                    2

   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
   *                                                     *
   *       www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/?n=water_supply        *
   *                                                     *
   *******************************************************


				ARKANSAS 
 
The potential for flood conditions in western Arkansas will be near
normal this spring. Flooding in western Arkansas usually occurs in
response to specific precipitation events.  However, the Arkansas
River may flood in response to more widespread upstream conditions.
There are currently no indications of extreme hydrologic conditions
to alter the flood potential of the area.

Precipitation totals during the last 90 days for western Arkansas 
have been significantly below average. Widespread areas in 
northwestern and central Arkansas are well below average with 90-day
totals between 50 and 75 percent-of-average. Only in the extreme 
southwest corner of the state do 90-day totals approach or exceed the
average. 

Snowpack estimates from the National Operational Hydrologic Remote 
Sensing Center (NOHRSC) indicate a light but widespread snowpack in
Arkansas. This snowpack is not expected to be hydrologically 
significant with regard to spring flooding. Soil moisture conditions
in western Arkansas are near normal, with estimates between the 30th 
and 70th percentiles.  

Corps of Engineers projects in southwestern Arkansas are at levels 
approximating design conditions. They have approximately 99 percent 
of their flood control capacity available at this time. Streamflows 
in western Arkansas are approximating normal conditions with stream-
flows between the 25th and 75th percentiles.

The Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) Seasonal Outlook (MAR-APR-MAY)
calls for equal chances of above-normal, below-normal, and near-
normal temperatures and above-median, below-median, and near-median 
precipitation across western and central Arkansas.

The U.S. Drought Monitor of February 24, 2015 indicates northwestern 
and west-central Arkansas are  experiencing Abnormally Dry (D0) 
conditions. Areas of the southwestern corner of Arkansas are free of
drought related conditions. CPC's Drought Outlook of February 19, 
2015 calls for no development or intensification of drought 
conditions during the next three months.

 

   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
   *                                                     *
   *       www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/?n=water_supply        *
   *                                                     *
   *******************************************************

 
				OKLAHOMA 
				
The potential for flood conditions in Oklahoma will be normal in
eastern Oklahoma and below normal in western Oklahoma. Flooding in 
Oklahoma usually occurs in response to specific precipitation events.
Many current hydrologic indicators reflect an ongoing drought that 
has gripped the Southern Plains for several years. Eastern Oklahoma 
had gotten more relief than have the western parts of the state but 
has been trending drier for the last year and has slipped back closer
to drought conditions. 
 
Precipitation totals for the last 90 days are below normal to well-
below normal across most of Oklahoma.  There are widespread areas 
that have received less than 75 percent-of-average precipitation. 
Large but scattered areas throughout Oklahoma have received less than
50 percent-of-average rainfall in the last 90 days. The relative 
amounts increase towards the southern parts of the state in the Red 
River basin. Even that area is dominated by widespread areas of below
average rainfall, getting 75 to 90 percent of normal. Conditions vary 
greatly from East to West across the Oklahoma Panhandle.  Ninety-day 
precipitation totals range from less than 50 percent of average in 
the eastern panhandle to nearly 300 percent of average on the border 
with New Mexico. It should be noted that these large above average 
values only represent an inch or two above average. 

The Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) Seasonal Outlook (MAR-APR-MAY)
calls for increased chances (33%-40%) of below-normal temperatures 
across most of Oklahoma. The outlook also call for equal chances of 
above-normal, below-normal, and near-normal precipitation across all
of Oklahoma except for the Panhandle.  There the outlook calls for 
increased chances (33%-40%) of above-normal rainfall. 

Soil moisture across the state of Oklahoma currently reflects the
long-term drought conditions that have dominated the Southern Plains.
Western Oklahoma (except for the Panhandle) is dominated by below-
normal soil moisture with values between the 20th and 30th 
percentiles. Eastern Oklahoma is dominated by near-normal soil 
moisture with values between the 30th and 70th percentiles. 

Stream and river discharges in Oklahoma almost mirror the soil 
moisture conditions.  Streamflows in the southeast quarter of the 
state and along the Arkansas border are near normal for this time 
of year. The stream flows in the northeast quarter of the state and
throughout the western half of the state are below normal to well-
below normal.  Widespread areas of western Oklahoma are experiencing
streamflows below the 10th percentile.  

Reservoir storage in Oklahoma currently varies between the structures
in the Arkansas River system and those in the Red River system.  U.S. 
Army Corps of Engineers projects in western Oklahoma, especially 
those in the Red River system are extremely dry and have a great deal 
of flood control storage available. In the aggregate, the reservoirs 
in Oklahoma have 110 percent of their flood control storage available 
at this time.  Available capacity in the Arkansas system is 
approximately 108 percent of designed flood control storage. 
Available capacity in the Red River system is approximately 114 
percent of design flood control storage. 
 
Rains early last year pulled eastern Oklahoma towards drought-free
conditions, but the rains did not continue through the summer and
fall. The U.S. Drought Monitor of February 24, 2015 looks very much 
like the drought monitor from February of 2014.  The Monitor 
indicates that Oklahoma is experiencing Abnormally Dry (D0) to 
Exceptional Drought (D4) conditions. Abnormally Dry conditions 
currently dominate eastern Oklahoma and worsen to Moderate Drought 
(D1) near the middle of the state. Conditions continue to worsen as 
you move west and reach a worst case, with Exceptional Drought (D4),
in the southwest corner of the state. Conditions in the Panhandle 
range from Severe Drought (D2) to Extreme Drought (D3).

CPC's Seasonal Drought Outlook of February 19, 2015 calls for no 
development or intensification of drought conditions in extreme 
eastern Oklahoma and holds out some hope for drought improvement in 
east-central Oklahoma. Along the western border of Oklahoma and into
the Panhandle, drought conditions are expected to persist or 
intensify.
 

   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
   *                                                     *
   *       www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/?n=water_supply        *
   *                                                     *
   *******************************************************
 
				TEXAS 
 
The potential for flood conditions in north Texas will be below 
normal this year.  In the Panhandle, the potential for flooding will 
be near-normal. Flooding in North Texas and the Panhandle usually 
occurs in response to specific precipitation events. In the Red River
drainage, the on-going drought has shifted hydrologic conditions far 
enough, that a below-normal flood outlook seems warranted.

Precipitation totals for the last 90 days in the Red River basin and 
the Texas Panhandle are very much near normal with isolated areas 
slightly below. 

Except for gages below Denison Dam and Lake Texoma, streamflows in 
the Red River valley are showing the effects of the long-term 
drought.  Discharges there are generally less than 10 percent-of-
average for this time of year. Flows in the Panhandle are
extremely varied and range from above normal to well below normal. 

The Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) Seasonal Outlook for the next 
three months (MAR-APR-MAY) calls for increased chances (33%-40%) of 
below-normal temperatures throughout most of North Texas and the 
panhandle. In the northwest half of the Panhandle the Outlook 
indicates equal chances of above-normal, below-normal, and near-
normal temperatures. The Outlook also indicates there are equal 
chances of above-median, below-median, and near-median precipitation 
in the lower Red River valley in North Texas. In the headwaters of 
the Red River and the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma, the outlooks
call for increased chances (33%-40%) of above-normal precipitation. 
 
Soil moisture conditions at the end of February are generally 
consistent across North Texas and the Panhandle.  Soil moisture is 
generally near normal, with conditions between the 30th and 70th 
percentiles of historical conditions. 

The U.S. Drought Monitor of February 24, 2015 shows a range of 
conditions across North Texas and the Panhandle. Conditions across 
the Red River valley run from Abnormally Dry (D0) in the east and 
worsen to Exceptional Drought (D4)  near the western border of 
Oklahoma. Conditions in the Panhandle are dominated by Severe Drought
(D2), with large areas of Extreme Drought surrounding an isolated 
area of Exceptional Drought.  The CPC US Seasonal Drought Outlook of 
February 19, 2015 indicates drought conditions across North Texas 
should persist or intensify over the next three months.
 

AJA 
 
   ******************************************************* 
   *                                                     * 
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    * 
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            * 
   *                                                     * 
   *       www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/?n=water_supply        * 
   *                                                     * 
   ******************************************************* 
   
   
Thanks to the USGS for streamflow condition data, the U.S. Army Corps
of Engineers for reservoir condition data, the Natural Resource
Conservation Service for SNOTEL data, and the Climate Prediction
Center for the precipitation and temperature outlooks, the soil
moisture deficits, and the Drought Outlook.

$$

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