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Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service, ABRFC, Tulsa, Oklahoma
1300 CST, Wednesday, February 15, 2012
COLORADO
-- ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN--
The Rocky Mountains
The potential for flood conditions will be near normal this spring.
Flooding at most forecast points in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado
is driven by rapid snowpack runoff or isolated, high-intensity
rainfall.
As measured at high altitude Snotel monitoring stations, the
mountains of the Arkansas River basin have received approximately
90 percent of average precipitation and have accumulated 88 percent
of average snowpack this water year. A more detailed table is
included below. In the opinion of the ABRFC these totals are not
entirely indicative of the current conditions in the basin. Weather
patterns this winter have brought snow to the western slopes of the
front range but have not transported moisture much beyond the divide.
This has resulted in snotel measurements that may approximate an
average year while an abnormal percentage of the basins remain in a
water deficit. According to the Snotel data this water-year's
precipitation, to date, is about 100 percent of last year's. At the
end of January, mountain reservoirs in the Arkansas River basin were,
on average, at 72 percent of capacity. This represents 122 percent
of average storage and 104 percent of last year's storage.
S N O W - P R E C I P I T A T I O N U P D A T E
Based on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites
As of WEDNESDAY: February 15, 2012
-------------------------------------------------------------------
BASIN ELEV. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT TOTAL PRECIPITATION
Data Site Name (Ft) % %
Current Average Avg Current Average Avg
-------------------------------------------------------------------
ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN
APISHAPA 10000 M 5.5 * 9.5 8.0 119
BRUMLEY 10600 4.9 6.8 72 7.8 9.3 84
FREMONT PASS 11400 7.9 11.6 68 8.5 10.9 78
PORPHYRY CREEK 10760 9.0 11.2 80 8.1 10.5 77
SOUTH COLONY 10800 12.7 12.9 98 16.5 17.5 94
WHISKEY CK 10220 8.9 7.1 125 9.9 10.8 92
----- -----
Basin wide percent of average 88 90
Units = inches for the Current and Average Snow Water Equivalent
and Total Precipitation values
The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlooks for winter and early
spring (FEB-MAR-APR)indicate increased chances (33%-40%) of above
normal temperatures in the northern half of the Arkansas River basin
in Colorado. Those chances increase to 40-50% southward to the New
Mexican border. CPC precipitation outlooks mirror the temperature
outlooks. CPC calls for increased chances (33%-40%) of below-normal
precipitation throughout the Arkansas River basin. The chances
increase to (40%-50%) near the New Mexico border.
Current soil moisture estimates represent normal to above-normal
conditions throughout the Arkansas River basin. Soil moisture
estimates decrease towards the southeast.
The ESP model does not indicate a greater than 50 percent chance of
flooding at any forecast point. The table below contains a summary
of the most probable maximum stages from the model output.
Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
As of Friday: February 10, 2011
Feb 10 - Jun 8 50% Exceedence
Weekly
Flood 50% exceedence 50% exceedence
Station Stage(ft) Maximum Stage (ft) Maximum Stage (ft)
------------------------------------------------------------------
Leadville 9.0 6.6 6.4
Salida 8.0 4.2 4.1
Wellsville 9.0 5.6 5.5
Parkdale 9.0 4.7 4.6
Canon City 10.0 7.7 7.5
Portland 9.0 4.4 4.2
Pueblo 8.0 6.0 5.5
The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates that moderate to severe drought
conditions currently dominate the Arkansas River basin in Colorado.
The US Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for persistent or worsening
drought conditions through April.
The Southeastern Plains
The potential for flood conditions will be near normal this spring.
Normal conditions for southeastern Colorado reflect a low probability
of flooding.
Current Climate Prediction Center (CPC) soil moisture estimates
for the area approximate normal conditions with values in the 30th
to 70th percentiles over most of the Arkansas River basin. The
extreme southeast corner of Colorado indicates drier conditions with
soil moisture in the 5th-30th percentiles
The Arkansas River is generally flowing at normal levels with
isolated stations reporting below-normal conditions. Fountain Creek
is flowing at normal to slightly above-normal levels.
The ESP model does not indicate any probabilities of flooding greater
than 25 percent. The table below shows the probability of flooding
during the next 120 days at 4 forecast points.
Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
As of Friday: February 10, 2011
Fcst Point % Probability % Probability % Probability
Station Minor Flooding Moderate Flooding Major Flooding
ID
ARCC2 Not Expected Not Expected Not Expected
LXHC2 25 5 3
LAPC2 10 3 2
LMAC2 Not Expected Not Expected Not Expected
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor all of southeastern
Colorado is experiencing at least moderate drought conditions. A small
pocket along the Arkansas River from Pueblo to the Kansas border is
experiencing severe drought. The US Seasonal Drought Outlook calls
for persistent or worsening drought conditions through April.
*******************************************************
* *
* This, and additional Water Supply Information, *
* can be found on our Web Page at: *
* *
* www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php *
* *
*******************************************************
SOUTHERN KANSAS
The potential for flood conditions in southern Kansas will be normal
this spring. Most flooding in Kansas is directly related to specific
precipitation events. Most hydrologically relevant conditions in
southern Kansas reflect long-term normals.
Rainfall during the last 90 days has been near to well above
average across southern Kansas. Most of southern Kansas has received
more than 110 percent of average rainfall with the western two-thirds
of southern Kansas getting in excess of 150 percent of average.
Southeastern Kansas has gotten near to slightly below average
rainfall over that time period.
Soil moisture across southern Kansas is consistently between the 30th
and 70th percentiles. There is a small area of decreased soil
moisture in the extreme southwest corner of the state. That area is
between the 10th and 30th percentiles.
Streamflows in southeastern and south-central Kansas are near normal.
Streamflows in southwest Kansas are much below normal with isolated
stations reporting below-normal or even normal conditions.
Reservoir storage in southern Kansas is approximating design
conditions. U.S. Corps of Engineers data indicate that Corps
reservoirs in southern Kansas currently have an average of 100
percent of their flood control storage available at this time.
Through the late winter and early spring months (FEB-MAR-APR), the
Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) outlooks for southern Kansas call
for increased chances (33%-40%) of experiencing above-normal
temperatures in most of southern Kansas. The chances increase
(40%-50%) as one moves south to the Oklahoma border. CPC's
precipitation outlook shows a different pattern. The outlook calls
for increased chances (33-40%) of below-normal precipitation for
western Kansas. The chances diminish eastward so that the eastern
third of the state has equal chances of normal, above-normal, or
below normal precipitation over the next three months.
The U.S. Drought Monitor currently indicates some level of drought
across all of southern Kansas. The southwest corner of the state is
experiencing extreme drought while the remainder of southern Kansas
is dominated by moderate to severe drought. Isolated areas are
slightly better off and are experiencing abnormally dry conditions.
The CPC's US Seasonal Drought Outlook for the next 3 months calls for
drought conditions in central and western Kansas to persist or
intensify. They are showing some potential for improvement in
southeast Kansas.
The table below indicates the probability of flooding for selected
western Kansas forecast points where the model indicates a greater
than five percent chance of flooding. Current model output indicates
that chances of minor flooding in western Kansas are low (< 10%).
Select Points in Western Kansas
Kansas Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
As of Friday: February 10, 2011
Fcst. Point % Probability % Probability % Probability
Station Minor Flooding Moderate Flooding Major Flooding
ID
ENWK1 8 Not Expected Not Expected
ZENK1 6 4 Not Expected
The table below presents some south-central and southeast Kansas
forecast points where the ESP model indicated a greater than 10%
chance of minor flooding. These are not extreme conditions and in
the long term do not reflect an above-normal potential for flooding.
Select Points in South-central and Southeast Kansas
Kansas Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
As of Friday: February 10, 2012
Fcst. Point % Probability % Probability % Probability
Station Minor Flooding Moderate Flooding Major Flooding
ID
ALMK1 17 11 Not Expected
ARCK1 28 7 Not Expected
ATOK1 19 4 Not Expected
CBNK1 39 Not Expected Not Expected
CFVK1 19 6 Not Expected
CNUK1 24 14 Not Expected
COWK1 17 Not Expected Not Expected
CTWK1 32 13 Not Expected
DRBK1 15 Not Expected Not Expected
EDWK1 16 14 4
EREK1 27 22 18
FLRK1 30 2 Not Expected
FRNK1 19 7 Not Expected
HTDK1 11 4 Not Expected
IDPK1 26 Not Expected Not Expected
IOLK1 19 5 Not Expected
MRDK1 21 3 Not Expected
MULK1 16 Not Expected Not Expected
OSWK1 42 29 7
OXFK1 18 15 Not Expected
PPFK1 43 35 Not Expected
PLYK1 31 8 Not Expected
SEDK1 13 7 5
WFDK1 36 18 4
AMCK1 12 10 Not Expected
EMPK1 36 19 Not Expected
EPRK1 23 19 Not Expected
NEOK1 27 24 Not Expected
*******************************************************
* *
* This, and additional Water Supply Information, *
* can be found on our Web Page at: *
* *
* www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php *
* *
*******************************************************
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
The potential for flood conditions in southwest Missouri will be
near normal this spring. Most flooding in this area is related to
specific rainfall events. Therefore, current conditions do not
necessarily indicate an increased or decreased risk of spring
flooding.
Rainfall during the last 90 days has been from 50 to 90 percent of
average. Soil moisture in southwestern Missouri is currently near
normal (30-70th percentile). Stream flow in that part of the
state is near normal.
Through the late winter and early spring months (FEB-MAR-APR), the
Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) outlooks for southwestern Missouri
call for increased chances (33%-40%) of experiencing above-normal
temperatures. The chances increase (40%-50%) along the Arkansas
border. The outlooks also indicate equal chances (33%) of above-
normal, normal, and below-normal precipitation for the same period.
The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates a small portion of southwestern
Missouri is abnormally dry. The remainder of the area is not
experiencing any drought related conditions. The CPC's US Seasonal
Drought Outlook calls for no development of drought-related
conditions over the next 3 months.
The table below presents some southwestern Missouri forecast points
where the ESP model indicated a greater than 10% chance of minor
flooding. These are not extreme conditions and do not reflect an
above-normal potential for flooding.
Select Points in Southwest Missouri
Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
As of Friday: February 10, 2012
Fcst. Point % Probability % Probability % Probability
Station Minor Flooding Moderate Flooding Major Flooding
ID
CHTM7 23 4 Not Expected
TIFM7 35 14 3
WCOM7 18 Not Expected Not Expected
*******************************************************
* *
* This, and additional Water Supply Information, *
* can be found on our Web Page at: *
* *
* www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php *
* *
*******************************************************
$$
|
- National Weather Service
- Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center
- 10159 E. 11th Street, Suite 300
- Tulsa, OK 74128-3050
- Page Author: ABRFC Webmaster
- Web Master's E-mail: sr-abrfc.webmaster@noaa.gov
- Page last modified: 7-Jan-2010 5:39 PM UTC