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Water Supply Flood Potential Outlook

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Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service, ABRFC, Tulsa, Oklahoma
1017 CST, Wednesday, February 18, 2016

                          COLORADO 
                -- ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN--
		
The Rocky Mountains

Although reservoir levels are above average, the potential for 
flooding due to snowmelt is near normal this spring. Flooding at most 
forecast points in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado is driven by rapid 
snowpack runoff or isolated, high-intensity rainfall.   

As measured at high altitude SNOTEL monitoring stations, the 
mountains of the Arkansas River basin received approximately 101 
percent of the median precipitation and have accumulated 106 percent 
of the median snowpack this water year. A more detailed table is 
included below. This water-year's precipitation is about 111 percent 
of last year's. SNOTEL locations across the area generally show snow 
water equivalent amounts near to slightly above normal. At the end of 
January, mountain reservoirs above Pueblo were, on average, at 98 
percent of capacity.  This represents 136 percent of average storage 
and 102 percent of last year's storage. Reservoirs below Pueblo are 
at 122 percent of capacity, 386 percent of last year's storage, and 
148 percent of the long-term average. 


    S N O W  -  P R E C I P I T A T I O N    U P D A T E
 
        Based on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites
              As of Wednesday: February 17, 2016 
-------------------------------------------------------------------
BASIN             ELEV. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT   TOTAL PRECIPITATION
Data Site Name   (Ft)                      %                      %  
                       Current  Median  Med.  Current  Median  Med
-------------------------------------------------------------------

ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN

APISHAPA         10000     5.6   5.4     104    8.2     8.4      98
BRUMLEY          10600     8.2   6.9     119    8.0     9.2      87 
FREMONT PASS     11400    11.5  10.5     110   12.7    10.8     118 
PORPHYRY CREEK   10760    12.4  10.9     114   10.6    10.6     100 
SOUTH COLONY     10800    13.6  13.5     101   15.6    14.7     106 
WHISKEY CK       10220     6.3   7.3      86   11.1    11.0     101
                                        -----                  -----
         Basin wide percent of average   106                    101 
	  
Units = inches for the Current and Average Snow Water Equivalent 
	and Total Precipitation values

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlook for late winter and  
spring (MAR-APR-MAY) indicates slightly increased chances (33%-40%) of 
below normal temperatures in southeastern Colorado. The remainder of
Colorado has equal chances (33%) of below, near, or above normal
temperatures. CPC outlook also calls for significantly increased 
chances (50+%) of above normal precipitation across much of Colorado
during the same period.     

Current soil moisture estimates from the CPC are above normal in the 
mountain headwaters of the Arkansas River and throughout southeastern 
Colorado.  Soil moisture estimates for the end of January were 
between the 70th and 95th percentiles throughout the area.

The ESP model does not indicate a greater than 50 percent chance of 
flooding at any forecast point.  The table below contains a summary 
of the most probable maximum stages from the model output.    

            Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
              As of Wednesday: February 17, 2016
               Feb 17 - Jun 16 50% Exceedence
						    Weekly                  
	     Flood         50% exceedence    	50% exceedence 
  Station  Stage(ft)     Maximum Stage (ft)     Maximum Stage (ft)
------------------------------------------------------------------
 Leadville     9.0                7.1                  6.8
 Salida        8.0                4.6                  4.3
 Wellsville    9.0                6.1                  5.7
 Parkdale      9.0                5.2                  4.8
 Canon City   10.0                8.0                  7.7
 Portland      9.0                4.8                  4.4
 Pueblo        8.0                6.4                  5.9

The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates that no drought conditions are 
currently present in all of Colorado. There are isolated, small 
pockets of Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions scattered around the state. 
The US Seasonal Drought Outlook shows no development of drought 
conditions expected across Colorado during the next 3 months. 


The Southeastern Plains

The potential for flood conditions is near normal this spring. Normal 
conditions for southeastern Colorado reflect a low probability of 
flooding. 

Current Climate Prediction Center (CPC) soil moisture estimates for 
the area indicate wetter than normal conditions in southeastern 
Colorado.  Soil moisture values in the 70th to the 95th percentile 
dominate that part of the state. 

The Arkansas River is generally flowing at normal levels below
Pueblo Reservoir. Fountain Creek is flowing at above normal levels.  
 
The ESP model does not indicate any probabilities of flooding greater 
than 50 percent. The table below shows the probability of flooding 
during the next 120 days at four forecast points. 

             Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
               As of Wednesday: February 17, 2016

Fcst Point    % Probability    % Probability      % Probability 
Station	    Minor Flooding  Moderate Flooding	Major Flooding
ID
ARCC2          Not Expected     Not Expected      Not Expected
LXHC2             25                  8                 5
LAPC2             10                  3                 2
LMAC2          Not Expected     Not Expected      Not Expected

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor the plains of southeastern 
Colorado are drought free. The US Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for 
the area to remain drought free for the next three months.

   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
   *                                                     *
   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/?n=water_supply           *
   *                                                     *
   *******************************************************


			SOUTHERN KANSAS

The potential for flood conditions in southern Kansas is near normal 
this spring. Most flooding in Kansas is directly related to specific 
precipitation events. Kansas has recovered from the long-term drought 
that affected the Southern Plains for most of 2010 through 2014. Much 
of the area is still feeling some affects from the wet period during 
the Spring of 2015.

Precipitation during the last 90 days was well-above average across 
much of Kansas, except right along the Colorado border. Much of the 
eastern 2/3 of Kansas received in excess of 150% of normal 
precipitation during the past 90 days. A few areas saw more than 300%
of normal. Much of this precipitation fell in December, so the past
60 days were relatively dry.

According to the Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) estimates, soil 
moisture across southern Kansas is consistently between the 80th
and 95th percentiles. This represents above normal conditions.

Streamflows are near normal throughout the eastern half of Kansas, 
while slightly below normal in the western half. 

Reservoir storage in southern Kansas is near normal across the state.
U.S. Corps of Engineers data indicate that Corps reservoirs in 
southern Kansas currently have an average of 99 percent of their 
flood-control storage available at this time. 

Through the late winter and early spring months (MAR-APR-MAY), the 
CPC's outlook for southern Kansas calls for increased chances 
(33%-40%) of below normal temperatures in far-southwestern Kansas.  
The remainder of the state is expected to have equal chances of below,
near, or above normal temperatures. The precipitation outlook for the 
same period splits southern Kansas almost evenly from east to west. The 
western third of the state has increased chances (40%-50+%) of above 
normal precipitation. The central part of southern Kansas has slightly
increased chances (33%-40%) of above normal precipitation, while the 
eastern third has equal chances (33%) of below, near, or above normal 
precipitation. 

The U.S. Drought Monitor currently indicates no drought conditions 
across all of Kansas. There is one isolated area of Abnormally Dry (D0)
conditions in Central Kansas. The CPC's US Seasonal Drought Outlook 
for the next three months calls for no drought conditions across Kansas.

The table below indicates the probability of flooding for selected 
western Kansas forecast points where the model indicates a greater 
than five percent chance of flooding. Current model output indicates
that chances of minor flooding in western Kansas are relatively low. 
However, these low probabilities do not reflect extreme conditions and
indicate a near normal chance of flooding.

                   Select Points in Western Kansas
               Kansas Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
                As of Wednesday: February 17, 2016

Fcst. Point	% Probability	   % Probability      % Probability 
Station		Minor Flooding	  Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding
ID
BETK1                 7             Not Expected       Not Expected
ENWK1                20                  10            Not Expected
RCNK1                 7             Not Expected       Not Expected
ZENK1                 9                   6            Not Expected

The table below presents some south-central and southeast Kansas 
forecast points where the ESP model indicated a greater than 10% 
chance of minor flooding.  These are not extreme conditions and in 
the long term do not reflect an above normal potential for flooding.

        Select Points in South-central and Southeast Kansas
               Kansas Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
                As of Wednesday: February 17, 2016

Fcst. Point	% Probability	   % Probability      % Probability 
Station		Minor Flooding	  Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding
ID
AGAK1               13                  3             Not Expected
ALMK1               26                 18             Not Expected
ARCK1               39                 12                   2
ARKK1               19                  6             Not Expected
ATOK1               20                  4             Not Expected
BLPK1               11                  8                   3
CBNK1               38                  3             Not Expected
CFVK1               21                  6             Not Expected
CNUK1               32                 18                   4
COWK1               19            Not Expected        Not Expected
CTWK1               28                 15             Not Expected
DRBK1               18                  4             Not Expected
EREK1               33                 29                  20
FLRK1               35                  3             Not Expected
FRNK1               20                  8             Not Expected
HTDK1               21                 10             Not Expected
IDPK1               30            Not Expected        Not Expected 
IOLK1               19                  2             Not Expected 
MDKK1               29                 10             Not Expected 
MULK1               18                  3             Not Expected
OSWK1               50                 42                  7
OXFK1               22                 18                  2
PECK1               11                  2             Not Expected
PPFK1               51                 44             Not Expected
PLYK1               31                 12             Not Expected
SEDK1               18                  9                  7
TOWK1               19                  9             Not Expected
WFDK1               26                 16                  5
EMPK1               35                 21             Not Expected
EPRK1               20                 18             Not Expected
LRYK1               11                 11             Not Expected
NEOK1               29                 26             Not Expected 
 
   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
   *                                                     *
   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/?n=water_supply           *
   *                                                     *
   *******************************************************

			SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
			
The potential for flood conditions in southwest Missouri is near 
normal this spring. Most flooding in this area is related to 
specific rainfall events.  Therefore, current conditions do not 
necessarily indicate an increased or decreased risk of spring 
flooding. 

Precipitation during the last 90 days was from 150 to 300 percent 
of average, although the past 45 days have been mostly dry.  Soil 
moisture in southwestern Missouri is currently above normal (near 
95th percentile). Stream flow in that part of the state is near 
normal. 

Through the late winter and early spring months (MAR-APR-MAY), the 
Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) outlook for southwestern 
Missouri calls for equal chances (33%) of below, near, or above 
normal temperatures.  The outlook also indicates equal chances of 
below, near, or above normal precipitation for the same period.
 		
The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates no drought or Abnormally Dry 
conditions across the area. The CPC's US Seasonal Drought Outlook 
calls for the area to remain free of drought related conditions for 
the next three months.

The table below presents some southwestern Missouri forecast points 
where the ESP model indicated a greater than 10% chance of minor 
flooding.  These are not extreme conditions and do not reflect an 
above-normal potential for flooding.

                 Select Points in Southwest Missouri
                    Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
                   As of Wednesday: February 17, 2016

Fcst. Point	% Probability	   % Probability      % Probability 
Station		Minor Flooding	  Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding
ID
CHTM7               22                 11             Not Expected
TIFM7               29                  8                    4
WCOM7               28            Not Expected        Not Expected
BXTK1               23                 11                    2

   ******************************************************* 
   *                                                     * 
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    * 
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            * 
   *                                                     * 
   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/?n=water_supply           * 
   *                                                     * 
   ******************************************************* 
 
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