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Water Supply Flood Potential Outlook

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Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service, ABRFC, Tulsa, Oklahoma
0915 CST, Thursday, February 20, 2014

         RE-ISSUED TO CORRECT SMALL ERROR IN MISSOURI

                          COLORADO 
                -- ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN--
		
The Rocky Mountains

The potential for flood conditions will be near normal this spring. 
Flooding at most forecast points in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado 
is driven by rapid snowpack runoff or isolated, high-intensity 
rainfall.   

As measured at high altitude SNOTEL monitoring stations, the 
mountains of the Arkansas River basin have received approximately
102 percent of the median precipitation and have accumulated 106 
percent of the median snowpack this water year. A more detailed table
is included below. This water-year's precipitation is about 168 
percent of last year's. There is a sharp divide within the basin 
however. SNOTEL locations near the mainstem of the Arkansas River
indicate a snowpack well in excess of the 30-year median (Brumley,
Fremont Pass, and Porphyry Creek).  Stations in the Purgatoire River,
Cucharas River and Huerfano River basins (Apishapa and Whiskey Creek) 
are indicating a snowpack well below the median. At the end of 
January, mountain reservoirs above Pueblo were, on average, at 65 
percent of capacity.  This represents 103 percent of average storage
and 111 percent of last year's storage.


    S N O W  -  P R E C I P I T A T I O N    U P D A T E
 
        Based on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites
              As of TUESDAY: February 18, 2014 
-------------------------------------------------------------------
BASIN             ELEV. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT   TOTAL PRECIPITATION
Data Site Name   (Ft)                      %                      %  
                       Current  Median  Med.  Current  Median  Med
-------------------------------------------------------------------

ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN

APISHAPA         10000     2.5   5.5      45    6.3     8.4      75
BRUMLEY          10600    10.6   6.9     154    9.6     9.3     103 
FREMONT PASS     11400    14.8  10.6     140   14.8    10.8     137 
PORPHYRY CREEK   10760    15.6  11.0     142   13.4    10.7     125 
SOUTH COLONY     10800    13.6  13.6     100   15.0    14.8     101 
WHISKEY CK       10220     4.1   7.4      55    8.1    11.1      73
                                        -----                  -----
         Basin wide percent of average   106                    102 
	  
Units = inches for the Current and Average Snow Water Equivalent 
	and Total Precipitation values

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlooks for winter and early 
spring (FEB-MAR-APR)indicate increased chances (33%-40%) of above
normal temperatures in the Arkansas River basin in Colorado. Those 
chances increase slightly towards the south. CPC outlooks also call 
for equal chances of above-normal, below-normal, and normal 
precipitation during the same period.     

Current soil moisture estimates represent near-normal conditions in 
the plains and well into the moutain headwaters of the Arkansas 
River. However, soil moisture estimates increase as you move into the
mountains rapidly climbing from the 70th to the 90th percentile. 

The ESP model does not indicate a greater than 50 percent chance of 
flooding at any forecast point.  The table below contains a summary 
of the most probable maximum stages from the model output.    

            Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
              As of Tuesday: February 18, 2014
               Feb 18 - May 20 50% Exceedence
						    Weekly                  
	     Flood         50% exceedence    	50% exceedence 
  Station  Stage(ft)     Maximum Stage (ft)     Maximum Stage (ft)
------------------------------------------------------------------
 Leadville     9.0                7.5                  7.1
 Salida        8.0                4.7                  4.5
 Wellsville    9.0                6.2                  5.9
 Parkdale      9.0                5.3                  5.0
 Canon City   10.0                8.1                  7.9
 Portland      9.0                4.9                  4.6
 Pueblo        8.0                6.6                  6.1

The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates that abnormally dry conditions 
currently dominate the headwaters of the Arkansas River basin in 
Colorado. The headwaters of the Purgatoire River, the Cucharas River,
and the Huerfano River are drier and close to the transition to
Moderate Drought. The US Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for no 
further development of drought conditions in the Arkansas River 
headwaters. Further south however, in the Purgatoire River basin, the
outlook calls for the development or persistence of drought 
conditions.

The Southeastern Plains

The potential for flood conditions will be below normal this spring. 
Normal conditions for southeastern Colorado reflect a low probability 
of flooding. 

CPC soil moisture estimates for the area indicate normal conditions 
in southeastern Colorado.  Soil moisture values in the 30th to the 
70th percentile dominate that part of the state. 

The Arkansas River is generally flowing at extremely low levels below
Pueblo Reservoir. Fountain Creek is flowing at below normal to 
near-normal levels.  
 
The ESP model does not indicate any probabilities of flooding greater 
than 25 percent. The table below shows the probability of flooding 
during the next 120 days at four forecast points. 

             Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
               As of Tuesday: February 18, 2014

Fcst Point    % Probability    % Probability      % Probability 
Station	    Minor Flooding  Moderate Flooding	Major Flooding
ID
ARCC2          Not Expected     Not Expected      Not Expected
LXHC2             36                  7                  5
LAPC2             12                  4                  2
LMAC2          Not Expected     Not Expected     Not Expected

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor the plains of southeastern 
Colorado are experiencing extreme to exceptional drought conditions. 
The US Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for persistent or worsening 
drought conditions through April.

   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
   *                                                     *
   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php     *
   *                                                     *
   *******************************************************


			SOUTHERN KANSAS

The potential for flood conditions in southern Kansas will be 
near-normal this spring. Most flooding in Kansas is directly related 
to specific precipitation events. Kansas has shown some recovery from
the long-term drought that affected the southern plains for most of 
2010 through 2013. However, most hydrologically relevant conditions 
in southern Kansas continue to reflect the effects of that drought.

Precipitation during the last 90 days has been well-below average 
across most of southern Kansas. Southeast Kansas has widespread 
rainfall estimates of less than 50 percent of normal.  Rainfall in 
south-central Kansas has been only slightly more abundant from 50 
percent of average up to near 125 percent of average.  The higher
values are more isolated.  Estimates in southwest Kansas share some
of the isolated wet areas but also contain widespread areas that have
received 25-75 percent of average.  

Soil moisture across southern Kansas is consistently between the 30th
and 70th percentiles representing normal conditions.  Only in extreme
southeast Kansas do the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) data indicate
below normal conditions with values in between the 20th and 30th 
percentiles.    

Streamflows in southern Kansas are well-below normal throughout 
southwest Kansas. In contrast, streamflows throughout southeast 
Kansas are approaching normal conditions. 

Reservoir storage in southern Kansas is very close to approximating
design conditions. U.S. Corps of Engineers data indicate that Corps 
reservoirs in southern Kansas currently have an average of 101 
percent of their flood-control storage available at this time.

Through the late winter and early spring months (FEB-MAR-APR), the 
Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) outlooks for southern Kansas call 
for equal chances of above-normal, below-normal, and normal 
temperatures and precipitation.  The chances of above-normal 
temperatures increase towards the south but remain fairly neutral
within Kansas. 

The U.S. Drought Monitor currently indicates abnormally dry to 
extreme drought conditions dominating southern Kansas. Southeast 
Kansas is almost entirely classified as abnormally dry.  Conditions 
worsen to the west.  Severe drought dominates almost all of southwest
Kansas and worsens to extreme drought towards the southwestern corner 
of the state. The CPC's US Seasonal Drought Outlook for the next 3 
months calls for drought conditions in southwestern Kansas to persist
or intensify.

The table below indicates the probability of flooding for selected 
western Kansas forecast points where the model indicates a greater 
than five percent chance of flooding. Current model output indicates
that chances of minor flooding in western Kansas are low (< 12%). 
However these low probabilities do not reflect extreme conditions and
indicate a near-normal chance of flooding.

                   Select Points in Western Kansas
               Kansas Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
                As of Tuesday: February 18, 2014

Fcst. Point	% Probability	   % Probability      % Probability 
Station		Minor Flooding	  Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding
ID
ENWK1                12                  3            Not Expected


The table below presents some south-central and southeast Kansas 
forecast points where the ESP model indicated a greater than 10% 
chance of minor flooding.  These are not extreme conditions and in 
the long term do not reflect an above-normal potential for flooding.

        Select Points in South-central and Southeast Kansas
               Kansas Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
                As of Tuesday: February 18, 2014

Fcst. Point	% Probability	   % Probability      % Probability 
Station		Minor Flooding	  Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding
ID
AGAK1               15                  4             Not Expected
AGSK1               18                  7                  2
ALMK1               14                  9             Not Expected
ARCK1               23                  8                  2
ARKK1               19                  6             Not Expected
ATOK1               22                  4             Not Expected
CBNK1               45                  2             Not Expected
CFVK1               19                  6             Not Expected
CNUK1               28                 14             Not Expected
COWK1               17            Not Expected        Not Expected
CTWK1               21                 12             Not Expected
DRBK1               13                  3             Not Expected
EDWK1               17                 10                  7
EREK1               31                 29                 19
FLRK1               37            Not Expected        Not Expected
FRNK1               21                  7             Not Expected
IDPK1               30            Not Expected        Not Expected 
IOLK1               14                  2             Not Expected 
MDDK1               11                  4             Not Expected 
MULK1               15                  3             Not Expected
OSWK1               44                 31                  7
OXFK1               20                  7                  2
PPFK1               45            Not Expected        Not Expected
PLYK1               27                 13             Not Expected
SEDK1               14                  8             Not Expected
TOWK1               20                  8             Not Expected
WFDK1               26                 18                  6
EMPK1               28                 18             Not Expected
EPRK1               17                 16             Not Expected
NEOK1               32                 30             Not Expected 
 
   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
   *                                                     *
   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php     *
   *                                                     *
   *******************************************************

			SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
			
The potential for flood conditions in southwest Missouri will be 
near normal this spring. Most flooding in this area is related to 
specific rainfall events.  Therefore, current conditions do not 
necessarily indicate an increased or decreased risk of spring 
flooding. 

Rainfall during the last 90 days has been from 75 to 90 percent of 
average.  Soil moisture in southwestern Missouri is currently below
normal (20-30th percentile). Stream flow in that part of the state 
is slightly-below normal. 

Through the late winter and early spring months (FEB-MAR-APR), the 
Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) outlooks for southwestern 
Missouri mostly call for equal chances of above-normal, below-normal,
or normal temperatures.  The chances for above-normal temperatures 
increase slightly (33%-40%) near the Arkansas border. The outlooks 
also indicate equal chances (33%) of above-normal, normal, and below-
normal precipitation for the same period.
 		
The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates southwestern Missouri is not 
experiencing any drought related conditions.  The CPC's US Seasonal 
Drought Outlook calls for the area to remain free of drought related 
conditions for the next 3 months.

The table below presents some southwestern Missouri forecast points 
where the ESP model indicated a greater than 10% chance of minor 
flooding.  These are not extreme conditions and do not reflect an 
above-normal potential for flooding.

                 Select Points in Southwest Missouri
                    Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
                   As of Tuesday: February 18, 2014

Fcst. Point	% Probability	   % Probability      % Probability 
Station		Minor Flooding	  Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding
ID
CHTM7               22                  9             Not Expected
TIFM7               34            Not Expected        Not Expected
WCOM7               24            Not Expected        Not Expected
BXTK1               21                 10                    3

   ******************************************************* 
   *                                                     * 
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    * 
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            * 
   *                                                     * 
   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php     * 
   *                                                     * 
   ******************************************************* 
 
$$

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