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TTAA00 KTUA DDHHMM
Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service, ABRFC, Tulsa, Oklahoma
205 PM CST, Thursday, Feb 21, 2008
COLORADO
-- ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN--
The Rocky Mountains
The potential for flood conditions will be near normal this spring.
Conditions in the mountains of southeast Colorado will be reexamined
in the Spring Flood Outlook to be issued March 6, 2008.
The mountains of the Arkansas River basin have experienced
approximately 136 percent of normal precipitation and have
accumulated 166 percent of normal snowpack this water year (a more
detailed table is included below). This water-year's precipitation,
to date, is about 122 percent of last year's. At the end of January,
average reservoir contents in the Arkansas River basin in Colorado
were 71 percent of capacity. This represents 119 percent of average
storage and 120 percent of last year's storage.
S N O W - P R E C I P I T A T I O N U P D A T E
Based on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites
As of WEDNESDAY: February 20, 2008
--------------------------------------------------------------------
BASIN ELEV. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT TOTAL PRECIPITATION
Data Site Name (Ft) % %
Current Average Avg Current Average Avg
--------------------------------------------------------------------
ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN
APISHAPA 10000 13.8 5.8 238 10.9 8.4 130
BRUMLEY 10600 10.5 7.2 146 13.7 9.7 141
FREMONT PASS 11400 15.2 12.0 127 15.3 11.4 134
PORPHYRY CREEK 10760 17.4 11.7 149 15.8 11.0 144
SOUTH COLONY 10800 25.2 13.5 187 27.2 18.0 151
WHISKEY CK 10220 11.0 7.5 147 13.3 11.3 118
----- -----
Basin wide percent of average 166 136
Units = inches for the Current and Average Snow Water Equivalent and
Total Precipitation values
Through the spring months (MAR-APR-MAY), the Climate Prediction
Center is forecasting increased chances (40-50%) of experiencing
above-normal, temperatures. Outlooks indicate an increased
chance (33-40%) of below-normal precipitation for the same period.
Flooding at most forecast points in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado
is driven by rapid snowpack runoff or isolated, high-intensity
rainfall. While snowpack points toward slightly wetter than average
hydrologic conditions, this does not necessarily indicate an
increased, long-term, potential for spring flooding in the Arkansas
River basin.
Current conditions represent slightly wetter than average conditions
above Pueblo and Trinidad Reservoirs. The ESP model indicates a
greater than 50 percent chance of flooding at only one forecast
point (Canon City). The table below contains a summary of the
maximum likely stages from the model output.
Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
As of Wednesday: February 20, 2008
February 20-June 19
Weekly
Flood 50% exceedance 50% exceedance
Station Stage(ft) Maximum Stage (ft) Maximum Stage (ft)
------------------------------------------------------------------
Leadville 5.0 4.2 3.8
Salida 9.0 6.1 5.6
Wellsville 9.0 7.0 6.7
Parkdale 9.0 6.7 5.9
Canon City 9.0 9.4 9.0
Portland 9.0 6.4 5.6
Pueblo 8.0 6.7 6.3
The Southeastern Plains
The potential for flood conditions will be near normal this spring.
Conditions in the plains of southeast Colorado will be reexamined
in the Spring Flood Outlook to be issued March 6, 2008.
There is little to no snowpack east of the Rocky Mountains. Soil
moisture in the plains of southeast Colorado is normal with values
between the 30th and 70th percentiles. Rainfall for the last 90 days
has been normal to below normal in the southeastern quarter of
Colorado. The Arkansas River is generally flowing at normal levels
while Fountain Creek is flowing at normal to above-normal levels.
Flooding in Colorado is generally driven by rapid snowpack runoff or
isolated, high-intensity rainfall. A normal probability of flooding
for southeastern Colorado indicates a low probability of flooding
throughout the area. The ESP model indicates a greater than 50
percent chance of flooding at only one forecast point (La Junta).
The table below shows the probability of flooding during the next
120 days at 4 forecast points.
Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
As of Wednesday: February 20, 2008
Fcst. Point % Probability % Probability % Probability
Station Minor Flooding Moderate Flooding Major Flooding
ID
ARCC2 Not Expected Not Expected Not Expected
LXHC2 65 12 6
LAPC2 17 7 6
LMAC2 8 4 3
The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates the mountains of southeastern
Colorado are not experiencing any drought conditions. Drought
conditions in the plains of southeastern Colorado range from
abnormally dry to moderate drought. According to the Climate
Prediction Center's U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, drought
conditions along the Colorado-Kansas-Oklahoma tri-state border
region are expected to persist or intensify over the next 2 months.
*******************************************************
* *
* This, and additional Water Supply Information, *
* can be found on our Web Page at: *
* *
* www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php *
* *
*******************************************************
$$
SOUTHERN KANSAS
The potential for flood conditions in southern Kansas will be near
normal this spring. Most flooding in Kansas is directly related to
specific precipitation events. Therefore, currently wet conditions
do not necessarily indicate an increased risk of spring flooding.
Conditions will be reexamined in the Spring Flood Outlook to be
issued March 6, 2008.
Rainfall during the last 90 days has been above normal to well-above
normal across southern Kansas with a local maximum in excess of 250
percent of average in the central part of Kansas. Recent rains have
resulted in flooding in south-central and southwest Kansas.
Soil moisture across southern Kansas is generally above average
(70th-90th percentile) at this time. Soil-moisture percentiles
increase to a maximum in the south-central part of the state.
Streamflow percentiles increase from west to east across southern
Kansas. In southwest Kansas, streamflows are near normal. In
south-central Kansas streamflows are normal to above normal. Recent
rains in southeastern Kansas have raised streamflows there to well-
above normal conditions.
Reservoir storage in southern Kansas is approximating average
conditions. U.S. Corps of Engineers data indicates that Corps
projects in southern Kansas currently have an average of 93 percent
of their flood control storage available at this time.
Through the spring months (MAR-APR-MAY), the Climate Prediction
Center's outlook for southern Kansas calls for increased chances
(33-40%) of experiencing above-normal temperatures. The outlook also
indicates increased chances (33-40%) of below-normal precipitation
for the same period.
The table below presents information for Dodge City forecast points
where the model indicates a chance of flooding. Unlike last year at
this time, there is no substantial snowpack in the plains of
Colorado or western Kansas. Current model output indicates that
chances of minor flooding in western Kansas are low (< 10%).
Select Points in Western Kansas
Kansas Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
As of Wednesday: February 20, 2008
Fcst. Point % Probability % Probability % Probability
Station Minor Flooding Moderate Flooding Major Flooding
ID
COOK1 4 Not Expected Not Expected
BETK1 4 Not Expected Not Expected
RCNK1 4 Not Expected Not Expected
ZENK1 9 8 7
Most flooding in south-central and southeast Kansas is also related
to specific rainfall events. The ESP model reflects currently wet
conditions but does not necessarily indicate an increased
probability of spring flooding in that area. Currently elevated
river stages and saturated soils resulted in elevated probabilities
of flooding for the eastern two-thirds of southern Kansas. If the
region experiences average climatic conditions, river stages and
soil moisture should return to more typical conditions as the spring
unfolds.
The table below presents those Wichita and Topeka forecast points for
which ESP indicated a greater than 35% chance of minor flooding.
Again, this is not an extreme condition and does not necessarily
reflect an above-average risk of flooding over the next 3 months.
Select Points in South-central and Southeast Kansas
Kansas Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
As of Wednesday: February 20, 2008
Fcst. Point % Probability % Probability % Probability
Station Minor Flooding Moderate Flooding Major Flooding
ID
CBNK1 40 2 Not Expected
CTWK1 36 21 Not Expected
FLRK1 53 2 Not Expected
PLYK1 45 26 14
PPFK1 38 33 Not Expected
WFDK1 45 26 14
EMPK1 52 30 Not Expected
EPRK1 40 36 Not Expected
NEOK1 42 9 Not Expected
The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates abnormally dry to moderate
drought conditions exist in southwestern Kansas at this time. These
conditions give way to non-drought conditions as one moves from west
to east across southern Kansas. The Climate Prediction Center's US
Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for drought conditions in western
Kansas to intensify or persist for the next 2 months.
*******************************************************
* *
* This, and additional Water Supply Information, *
* can be found on our Web Page at: *
* *
* www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php *
* *
*******************************************************
$$
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
The potential for flood conditions in southwestern Missouri will be
near normal this spring. Most flooding in southwest Missouri is
related to specific rainfall events. Therefore, currently wet
conditions do not necessarily indicate an increased risk of spring
flooding. Conditions will be reexamined in the Spring Flood Outlook
to be issued March 6, 2008.
Rainfall over the last 90 days has been above normal to well-above
normal across southwest Missouri. Soil moisture in southwestern
Missouri is currently above average (70th-90th percentile). Stream
flow in that part of the state ranges from above normal to well
above normal.
Through the spring months (MAR-APR-MAY), the Climate Prediction
Center's outlook for southwestern Missouri calls for increased
chances (33-40%) of experiencing above-normal temperatures. The
outlook also indicates increased chances (33-40%) of below-normal
precipitation for the same period.
The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates there are no drought conditions
in southwestern Missouri at this time. The Climate Prediction
Center's US Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for no changes in
drought conditions over the next 2 months.
*******************************************************
* *
* This, and additional Water Supply Information, *
* can be found on our Web Page at: *
* *
* www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php *
* *
*******************************************************
$$
|
- National Weather Service
- Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center
- 10159 E. 11th Street, Suite 300
- Tulsa, OK 74128-3050
- Page Author: ABRFC Webmaster
- Web Master's E-mail: sr-abrfc.webmaster@noaa.gov
- Page last modified: 7-Jan-2010 5:39 PM UTC