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Water Supply Flood Potential Outlook

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Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service, ABRFC, Tulsa, Oklahoma
1115 CST, Thursday, March 4, 2010

                          COLORADO 
                -- ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN--
		
The Rocky Mountains

The potential for flood conditions will be near normal this spring.
Flooding at most forecast points in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado
is driven by rapid snowpack runoff or isolated, high-intensity
rainfall.

The mountains of the Arkansas River basin have experienced
approximately 92 percent of average precipitation and have
accumulated 98 percent of average snowpack this water year (a more
detailed table is included below).  This water-year's precipitation,
to date, is about 89 percent of last year's. At the end of February,
mountain reservoirs in the Arkansas River basin were, on average, at
77 percent of capacity.  This represents 130 percent of average
storage and 110 percent of last year's storage.


    S N O W  -  P R E C I P I T A T I O N    U P D A T E
 
        Based on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites
              As of Tuesday: March 2, 2010
-------------------------------------------------------------------
BASIN             ELEV. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT   TOTAL PRECIPITATION
Data Site Name   (Ft)                      %                      % 
                       Current  Average  Avg  Current  Average  Avg
-------------------------------------------------------------------

ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN

APISHAPA         10000     7.9   6.5     122   10.7     9.3     115
BRUMLEY          10600     8.2   7.9     104   11.1    10.7     104
FREMONT PASS     11400    10.8  13.0      83   10.3    12.4      83
PORPHYRY CREEK   10760    11.0  12.8      86    9.5    12.1      79
SOUTH COLONY     10800    15.7  14.7     107   17.8    19.2      93
WHISKEY CK       10220     8.5   8.3     102   10.9    12.4      88
                                        -----                  -----
         Basin wide percent of average    98                     92
	  
Units = inches for the Current and Average Snow Water Equivalent
	and Total Precipitation values

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) precipitation outlook for the
next three months (MAR-APR-MAY) calls for increased chances (33-40%)
of above-normal precipitation throughout most of southeast Colorado.
The outlooks indicate equal chances (33%) of above-normal, below
normal, and normal temperatures in most of the Arkansas River basin.
 
Only the southeast corner of Colorado shows increased chances
(33-40%) of below-normal temperatures.

The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates there are currently no drought
related conditions in the Arkansas River basin. CPC's U.S. Seasonal
Drought Outlook indicates no drought-related conditions are expected
to develop over the next 3 months.

Current soil moisture estimates represent normal to above-normal
conditions throughout the Arkansas River basin.  Soil moisture
estimates decrease southeastwards becoming slightly below-normal in
the panhandle of Oklahoma.

The ESP model does not indicate a greater than 50 percent chance of
flooding at any forecast point.  The table below contains a summary
of the most probable maximum stages from the model output.

            Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
                  As of Tuesday: March 2, 2010
                 Mar 3 - Jun 29 50% Exceedence
						    Weekly
      
	     Flood         50% exceedence    	50% exceedence
  Station  Stage(ft)     Maximum Stage (ft)     Maximum Stage (ft)
------------------------------------------------------------------
 Leadville     5.0                3.6                  3.4
 Salida        9.0                5.5                  5.2
 Wellsville    9.0                6.6                  6.1
 Parkdale      9.0                5.9                  5.6
 Canon City    9.0                8.7                  8.4
 Portland      9.0                5.5                  5.1
 Pueblo        8.0                6.8                  6.2



The Southeastern Plains

The potential for flood conditions will be near normal this spring.
Normal conditions for southeastern Colorado reflect a low
probability of flooding.

Visible satellite images show considerable but not uniform snowpack 
in the plains of southeast Colorado. Soil moisture in the plains of
southeast Colorado near the Kansas border is above normal with values
between the 70th and 90th percentiles. However, soil moisture is
closer to normal (30th to 70th percentiles)in the foothills.

The Arkansas River is generally flowing at normal levels with
isolated stations reporting above or below-normal conditions.
Fountain Creek is flowing at normal to above-normal levels.
 
The ESP model does not indicate any probabilities of flooding
greater than 50 percent. The table below shows the probability of
flooding during the next 120 days at 4 forecast points.

             Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
               As of Tuesday: March 2, 2010

Fcst Point    % Probability    % Probability      % Probability
Station      Minor Flooding  Moderate Flooding     Major Flooding
ID
ARCC2          Not Expected     Not Expected      Not Expected
LXHC2             50                 14                  8
LAPC2             20                  8                  6
LMAC2              9                  4                  3

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor there are no drought or
drought-related conditions in the plains of southeastern Colorado.
CPC's U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook indicates no drought-related
conditions are expected to develop over the next 3 months.


   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
   *                                                     *
   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php     *
   *                                                     *
   *******************************************************



		NEW MEXICO -- CANADIAN RIVER BASIN

The potential for spring flooding for northeastern New Mexico is
normal. Normal flood potential in northeast New Mexico means a low
probability of flooding. Flooding in New Mexico is generally driven
by rapid snowmelt runoff or high-intensity rainfall.  There are
currently no indications of extreme hydrologic conditions to alter
the flood potential of the area.

The Sangre De Cristo Mountains mark the headwaters of the Canadian
River in New Mexico. These mountains have experienced about 110
percent of average precipitation this water year.  They have
accumulated 115 percent-of-average snowpack (a more detailed table
is included below). Water-year-to-date (October 1 to present)
precipitation (as a percent of average) increases eastward across
the plains.  Precipitation totals increase to 300 to 400 percent of
average on the Texas border.
 
          S N O W  -  P R E C I P I T A T I O N    U P D A T E
              Based on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites
                    As of TUESDAY: March 2, 2010
------------------------------------------------------------------
BASIN             ELEV. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT  TOTAL PRECIPITATION 
Data Site Name    (Ft)                    %                      %
                       Current  Average Avg  Current  Average  Avg
------------------------------------------------------------------
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAIN RANGE BASINS

 CULEBRA #2     10500    10.5    10.4   101      9.1    10.5    87
 GALLEGOS PEAK   9800     8.8     9.6    92     11.2    11.3    99
 NORTH COSTILLA 10600     7.5     4.6   163     11.0     9.6   115
 RED RVR PASS #2 9850     7.0     6.6   106      9.2     7.8   118
 TOLBY          10180     9.2     6.6   139     12.4     9.8   127
 TRINCHERA      10860     7.9     8.0    99      8.5     9.0    94
 WESNER SPGS    11120    12.7    12.7   100     15.9    14.8   107
                                       -----                 -----
       Basin wide percent of average    115                    110

Through the late winter and early spring (MAR-APR-MAY), the Climate
Prediction Center (CPC) outlooks indicate significantly increased
chances (40-50%) of above-normal precipitation. The outlooks also
indicate increased chances (33-40%) of above-normal temperatures in
the plains of northeast New Mexico during that same period.

Visible satellite imagery shows a significant snowpack in the plains
of northeast New Mexico. Soil moisture in northeastern New Mexico is
normal throughout the Canadian River basin. The Canadian River is
flowing at normal levels (25th -75th percentiles) in the plains but
no data is available in the mountain headwaters.  At the end of
February, Conchas Reservoir contents were at 10 percent of capacity
and 118 percent of last year. Contents of Eagle Nest Reservoir are at
57 percent of capacity and 94 percent of last year.
 
The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates there are no drought or drought-
related conditions in the Canadian River headwaters at this time.
The CPC's US Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for no drought related
conditions to develop over the next three months.

A summary of some potential maximum stages from the ESP model output
are presented in the table below.

 
                 New Mexico Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
                    As of Tuesday: March 2, 2010
                      Mar 3 - Jun 29 50% Exceedence

                                                           Weekly
           
                      Flood	 50% exceedence      50% exceedence
  Station            Stage(ft)  Maximum Stage (ft)  Maximum Stage(ft)
---------------------------------------------------------------------

 
Vermejo R @Dawson      9.0           5.0                 4.0
Cimarron R @Cimarron   5.0           0.8                 1.7
Mora R @Golondrinas    5.5           2.0                 1.8
 

   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
   *                                                     *
   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php     *
   *                                                     *
   *******************************************************



			SOUTHERN KANSAS

The potential for flood conditions in southern Kansas will be normal
this spring. Most flooding in Kansas is directly related to specific
precipitation events. Most hydrologically relevant conditions in
southern Kansas reflect long-term normals.

Rainfall during the current water year has been variable across
southern Kansas. Much of southwest Kansas received more than 150% of
average.  South-central Kansas has received 50 to 110% of average
rainfall. Southeast Kansas has had near-normal rainfall for this
period.

Soil moisture across southern Kansas varies with a maximum (90th -
95th  percentile)in the southeast corner of the state.  South-central
and southwest Kansas have normal (30th - 70th  percentile) soil
moisture at this time.

Streamflows in southeastern and south-central Kansas are near to
above normal.  Streamflows in southwest Kansas are normal with
isolated stations reporting well-below normal conditions.

Reservoir storage in southern Kansas is approximating design
conditions.  U.S. Corps of Engineers data indicate that Corps
reservoir storage in southern Kansas has increased slightly in the
last two weeks.  Reservoirs currently have an average of 97
percent of their flood control storage available.

The Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) three month (MAR-APR-MAY)
outlooks call for increased chances (33-40%) of above-normal
precipitation for extreme southwest Kansas. The chances diminish
eastward so that the eastern third of southern Kansas has equal
chances of above-normal, below-normal, and normal precipitation.
The outlooks indicate increased chances (33-40%) of below-normal
temperatures throughout southern Kansas.  Along the Oklahoma border
in south-central Kansas, there are significantly increased chances
(40-50%) of below-normal temperatures.

The U.S. Drought Monitor currently indicates no drought or drought-
related conditions in southern Kansas. The CPC's US Seasonal Drought
Outlook calls for no development of drought related conditions in
the next three months.

The table below displays the probability of flooding for selected
Dodge City forecast points where the model indicates a chance of
flooding. Current model output indicates that chances of minor
flooding in western Kansas are low (< 15%).

                   Select Points in Western Kansas
               Kansas Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
                   As of Tuesday: March 2, 2010

Fcst. Point	% Probability	   % Probability      % Probability
Station	        Minor Flooding    Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding
ID
COOK1                 8                 4             Not Expected
BETK1                13                 4                  3
ENWK1                15                 4             Not Expected
RCNK1                 8                 7                  4
ZENK1                11                 9                  5
DDCK1           Not Expected      Not Expected        Not Expected



The table below presents some south-central and southeast Kansas
forecast points where the ESP model indicated a greater than 20%
chance of minor flooding.  These are not extreme conditions and do
not reflect an above-normal potential for flooding.

        Select Points in South-central and Southeast Kansas
               Kansas Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
                As of Tuesday: March 2, 2010

Fcst. Point	% Probability	   % Probability      % Probability
Station         Minor Flooding    Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding
ID
CBNK1               45                  4             Not Expected
ARKK1               27                 11             Not Expected
CNUK1               43                 22                   2
ATOK1               24                  8             Not Expected
CTWK1               35                 22             Not Expected
EREK1               48                 32                  27
FLRK1               48                  2             Not Expected
FRNK1               37                  8             Not Expected
IDPK1               36            Not Expected        Not Expected
OSWK1               58                 36                 11
PLYK1               41                 18             Not Expected
PPFK1               60                 55             Not Expected
WFDK1               42                 25                  16
CTWK1               53                 29             Not Expected
EMPK1               53                 29             Not Expected
EPRK1               44                 43             Not Expected
NEOK1               50                 40             Not Expected
AGSK1               24                 12             Not Expected
ARCK1               35                 15                 3
CFVK1               24                  8             Not Expected
IOLK1               29                 10             Not Expected
MRDK1               26                 11             Not Expected
TOWK1               25                 18             Not Expected
COWK1               20            Not Expected        Not Expected
OXFK1               21                 19                 3
AMCK1               25                 15             Not Expected


   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
   *                                                     *
   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php     *
   *                                                     *
   *******************************************************
			SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
			
The potential for flood conditions in southwestern Missouri will be
near normal this spring. Most flooding in southwest Missouri is
related to specific rainfall events.  Therefore, current conditions
do not necessarily indicate an increased or decreased risk of spring
flooding.

Rainfall during the current water year has been near normal with 75
to 150 percent of average precipitation being recorded.

Through the late winter and early spring months (MAR-APR-MAY), the
Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) outlooks for southwestern Missouri
call for equal chances (33%) of above-normal, normal, or below-normal
precipitation. CPC's outlooks call for increased chances (33-40%) of
below normal temperatures.

Soil moisture in southwestern Missouri is currently well-above normal
(80-95th percentile). Stream flow in that part of the state is near
normal.

The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates there are no drought conditions
in southwestern Missouri at this time.  The CPC's US Seasonal
Drought Outlook calls for no development of drought-related
conditions over the next 3 months.


   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
   *                                                     *
   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php     *
   *                                                     *
   *******************************************************


				ARKANSAS 
 
The potential for flood conditions in western Arkansas will be near
normal this spring. Flooding in western Arkansas usually occurs in
response to specific precipitation events.  However, the Arkansas
River may flood in response to more widespread upstream conditions.
There are currently no indications of extreme hydrologic conditions
to alter the flood potential of the area.

Water-year precipitation totals across western Arkansas have
generally been near to above average with an increasing trend
towards the south and east.  Precipitation estimates are close to
average in the northwest corner of Arkansas.  West-central Arkansas
is near to above average. Totals increase to 150 to 200 percent of
average in the extreme southwestern and central areas of the state.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlooks for the spring (MAR-APR-
MAY) are calling for for equal chances of above-normal, normal, and
below-normal precipitation. They also call for increased chances
(33-40%) of below-normal temperatures from northwest to central parts
of the state.  Chances of below-normal temperatures increase (40-50%)
in the southwest part of the state.

Soil moisture across all of Arkansas is generally well above normal
with most of the state exceeding the 95th percentile. Rivers and
streams in western Arkansas are at normal to above-normal levels.
Corps of Engineers projects in western Arkansas have, on average, 93
percent of their flood control capacity available at this time.

The U.S. Drought Monitor shows no drought or drought-related
conditions in Arkansas. The CPC Drought Outlook does not indicate the
development any of drought-related conditions during the next three
months.
 

 

   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
   *                                                     *
   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php     *
   *                                                     *
   *******************************************************

 
				OKLAHOMA 
				
The potential for flood conditions in Oklahoma will be near normal
this spring. Flooding in Oklahoma usually occurs in response to
specific precipitation events. There are currently no indications of
extreme hydrologic conditions to alter the flood potential of the
area.
 
Water-year rainfall totals vary across Oklahoma but are generally
near average.  Rainfall totals are generally between 75 and 200
percent of average. The western panhandle has widespread areas
approaching 200% of average.  North-central Oklahoma and the eastern
panhandle are drier compared to their averages with widespread areas
approaching 75% of average.  Northeastern Oklahoma has experienced
more of less normal precipitation with areas ranging from 75% to 150
percent of average.  All of southern Oklahoma has experienced above-
normal rainfall that ranges from 100% to 150% of average.

The Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) outlooks for the spring (MAR-
APR-MAY) call for equal chances (33%) of above-normal, normal, and
below-normal precipitation in eastern Oklahoma. Central Oklahoma has
increased chances (33-40%) of above-normal precipitation and the
west has significantly increased chances (40-50%). CPC's temperature
out-look calls for significantly increased chances (40-50%) of below
normal temperatures.  The chances decrease (33-40%) in the western
panhandle and the northeast corner of the state.

Soil moisture is well above normal (90-95th percentile) in
northeastern and southeastern Oklahoma. Between those areas, the
soils in east-central Oklahoma are not as wet but are well-above
normal ranging from the 70th to the 95th percentiles. Soil moisture
decreases westward with normal conditions dominating most of the
state.  A small area of the panhandle is currently experiencing
below-normal soil-moisture.

Streams and rivers in Oklahoma are running at normal to above-normal
levels across most of Oklahoma.  South-central Oklahoma is
experiencing wide-spread and almost uniform above-normal streamflow
Streams in northern Oklahoma are experiencing more of a mix of normal
and above-normal conditions.  There are isolated streams in the
panhandle and in southwestern Oklahoma that are experiencing below
normal flows.

Reservoirs in Oklahoma have, on average, 96 percent of the flood
control storage currently available. Reservoirs in the Arkansas River
systems both average 95 percent of flood control storage available at
this time. Those in the Red River system have 98 percent of their
flood control storage available.
 
The U.S. Drought Monitor shows no drought or drought-related
conditions across Oklahoma. The CPC Drought Outlook indicates no
drought-related conditions should develop over the next three months.
 
 

   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
   *                                                     *
   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php     *
   *                                                     *
   *******************************************************
 
				TEXAS 
 
The potential for flood conditions in north Texas will be near
normal this spring. Flooding in north Texas usually occurs in
response to specific precipitation events.  There are currently no
indications of extreme hydrologic conditions to alter the flood
potential of the area.

Water-year precipitation totals across northern Texas are generally
near to above normal.  The panhandle has received 75% to 300% of
their average precipitation with the amounts increasing from east to
west.  The Red River valley of northern Texas saw between 90% and
200% of average rainfall.

The Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) outlooks for the next three
months (MAR-APR-MAY)calls for significantly increased chances
(40-50%) of above-normal precipitation in the panhandle and the
western Red River Valley. Chances for above-normal precipitation
decrease eastward, dropping to 33 to 40 percent in the central Red
River valley.  There are equal chances (33%) for above-normal, below
normal, and normal precipitation in the lower Red River valley. CPC's
temperature outlook calls for significantly increased chances
(40-50%) of below-normal temperatures in most of north Texas and the
panhandle. Only the northwest corner of the panhandle shows slightly
increased chances (33-40%) of below-normal temperatures.
 
Soil moisture conditions across northern Texas range from slightly
below-normal in the western panhandle to well above normal in the
eastern Red River valley.  The eastern panhandle and western Red
River valley are showing normal soil moisture conditions.
The Red River is flowing at above-normal levels from the
panhandle eastward.  Tributaries of the Red and Canadian Rivers in
the Texas panhandle are flowing at near-normal levels.  Reservoirs in
the Red River drainage in Texas have an average of 122 percent of the
flood control pool still available.

The U.S. Drought Monitor shows no drought or drought-related
conditions in north Texas or the panhandle.  The CPC Drought
Outlook indicates no drought-related conditions are expected to
develop over the next 3 months.
 
Thanks to the USGS for streamflow condition data, U.S. Army Corps of
Engineers for reservoir condition data, the Natural Resource
Conservation Service for SNOTEL data, and the Climate Prediction
Center for the precipitation and temperature outlooks, the soil
moisture percentiles, and the Drought Outlook.
 
   ******************************************************* 
   *                                                     * 
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    * 
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            * 
   *                                                     * 
   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php     * 
   *                                                     * 
   ******************************************************* 
 
$$

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