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Water Supply Flood Potential Outlook

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Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service, ABRFC, Tulsa, Oklahoma
1300 CST, Tuesday, March 1, 2011

                          COLORADO 
                -- ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN--
		
The Rocky Mountains

The potential for flood conditions will be near normal this spring.
Flooding at most forecast points in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado
is driven by rapid snowpack runoff or isolated, high-intensity
rainfall.

The mountains of the Arkansas River basin have experienced
approximately 99 percent of average precipitation and have
accumulated 104 percent of average snowpack this water year (a more
detailed table is included below).  At the end of January, mountain
reservoirs in the Arkansas River basin were, on average, at 75 
percent of capacity.  This represents 126 percent of average storage
and 109 percent of last year's storage.


    S N O W  -  P R E C I P I T A T I O N    U P D A T E
 
        Based on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites
              As of Monday: February 28, 2011
-------------------------------------------------------------------
BASIN             ELEV. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT   TOTAL PRECIPITATION
Data Site Name   (Ft)                      %                      % 
                       Current  Average  Avg  Current  Average  Avg
-------------------------------------------------------------------

ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN

APISHAPA         10000     4.6   6.3      73    9.2     9.0     102
BRUMLEY          10600    11.5   7.7     149   13.0    10.4     125
FREMONT PASS     11400    16.4  12.7     129   15.8    12.1     131
PORPHYRY CREEK   10760    14.8  12.5     118   13.0    11.8     110
SOUTH COLONY     10800    10.2  14.4      71   12.5    18.8      66
WHISKEY CK       10220     7.4   8.1      91    8.9    12.0      74
                                        -----                  -----
         Basin wide percent of average   104                     99
	  
Units = inches for the Current and Average Snow Water Equivalent
	and Total Precipitation values

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlooks for winter 
and early spring (MAR-APR-MAY)indicate increased chances (33%-40%) of
above-normal temperatures in Colorado.  The chances of above-normal 
temperatures increase (40%-50%) southward toward the New Mexico 
border. The precipitation outlook for the same period indicates  
strongly increased chances (40%-50%) of below-normal precipitation in
almost all of southeastern and central Colorado. 
 
The U.S. Drought Monitor of February 22 indicates that moderate to 
severe drought conditions currently dominate the Arkansas River basin
in Colorado. Only the extreme headwater areas above Granite, CO are 
free from the drought. The US Seasonal Drought Outlook of February 17
indicates drought-related conditions are expected to persist or 
intensify over the next 3 months.

Current soil moisture estimates from the CPC indicate a widespread
soil-moisture deficit of 20 to 40 millimeters. The deficits increase 
to 40-60 mm along the Arkansas-Rio Grande divide between Canyon 
City and Madrid.

The ESP model does not indicate a greater than 50 percent chance of
flooding at any forecast point.  The table below contains a summary
of the most probable maximum stages from the model output.

            Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
                  As of Tuesday: March 2, 2010
                 Feb 28 - Jun 28 50% Exceedence
						    Weekly
      
	     Flood         50% exceedence    	50% exceedence
  Station  Stage(ft)     Maximum Stage (ft)     Maximum Stage (ft)
------------------------------------------------------------------
 Leadville     5.0                3.8                  3.6
 Salida        9.0                6.1                  5.6
 Wellsville    9.0                7.2                  6.8
 Parkdale      9.0                7.0                  6.3
 Canon City    9.0                9.3                  8.9
 Portland      9.0                6.4                  6.0
 Pueblo        8.0                6.8                  6.5


The Southeastern Plains

The potential for flood conditions will be near normal this spring.
Normal conditions for southeastern Colorado reflect a low
probability of flooding.

Visible satellite images show no considerable snowpack in the plains
of southeast Colorado. The 20-40 mm soil moisture anomaly is 
consistent across the plains of southeast Colorado.  

The Arkansas River is generally flowing at normal levels with
isolated stations reporting below-normal conditions. Fountain Creek
is flowing at normal to below-normal levels.
 
The ESP model does not indicate any probabilities of flooding
greater than 50 percent. The table below shows the probability of
flooding during the next 120 days at 4 forecast points in the plains
of southeast Colorado.

             Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
               As of Sunday: February 27, 2011

Fcst Point    % Probability    % Probability      % Probability
Station      Minor Flooding  Moderate Flooding     Major Flooding
ID
ARCC2          Not Expected     Not Expected      Not Expected
LXHC2             46                 11                  7
LAPC2             13                  7                  5
LMAC2              9                  4                  2

Drought related conditions are hitting the Arkansas River valley in 
southeast Colorado harder than the remainder of the state.  Severe
drought conditions dominate an area along the river from Pueblo to 
the Kansas border.


   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
   *                                                     *
   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php     *
   *                                                     *
   *******************************************************


		NEW MEXICO -- CANADIAN RIVER BASIN

The potential for spring flooding for northeastern New Mexico is
normal. Normal conditions in northeast New Mexico reflect a low
probability of flooding. Flooding in New Mexico is generally driven
by rapid snowmelt runoff or high-intensity rainfall.  There are
currently no indications of extreme hydrologic conditions to alter
the flood potential of the area.

The Sangre De Cristo Mountains mark the headwaters of the Canadian
River in New Mexico. These mountains have experienced about 110
percent of average precipitation this water year.  They have
accumulated 74 percent-of-average snowpack (a more detailed table
is included below). Water-year-to-date (October 1 to present)
precipitation is below average across northeastern New Mexico.  Some 
areas are near their average but the area is dominated by widespread
water-year totals less than 50% of average.  
 
          S N O W  -  P R E C I P I T A T I O N    U P D A T E
              Based on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites
                    As of Monday: February 28, 2011
------------------------------------------------------------------
BASIN             ELEV. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT  TOTAL PRECIPITATION 
Data Site Name    (Ft)                    %                      %
                       Current  Average Avg  Current  Average  Avg
------------------------------------------------------------------
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAIN RANGE BASINS

 CULEBRA #2     10500     7.0    10.2    69      5.0    10.2    49
 GALLEGOS PEAK   9800     7.8     9.3    84      8.7    11.1    70
 NORTH COSTILLA 10600     4.9     4.5   109      9.3     9.4    99
 RED RVR PASS #2 9850     4.5     6.5    69      6.2     7.6    82
 TOLBY          10180     6.3     6.3   100      9.4     9.6    98
 TRINCHERA      10860     6.1     7.8    78      6.7     8.8    76
 WESNER SPGS    11120     6.3    12.3    51      9.1    14.4    63
                                       -----                 -----
       Basin wide percent of average     74                     76

Through the late winter and early spring (MAR-APR-MAY), the Climate
Prediction Center (CPC) outlooks indicate significantly increased
chances (40-50%) of above-normal temperatures. These chances 
increase (>50%) toward the southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains. The 
outlooks also indicate significantly increased chances (40-50%) of 
above-normal temperatures in the mountains and plains of northeast 
New Mexico during that same period.

Visible satellite imagery shows no significant snowpack in the plains
of northeast New Mexico. Soil moisture in northeastern New Mexico is
currently experiencing a 20 to 40 millimeter deficit throughout the 
Canadian River basin. The Canadian River is flowing at normal (25th 
-75th percentiles) to below-normal (10th to 25th percentiles) levels 
in the plains but no data is available in the mountain headwaters.  
At the end of January, Conchas Reservoir contents were at 9 percent 
of capacity and 91 percent of last year. Contents of Eagle Nest 
Reservoir were at 65 percent of capacity and 117 percent of last year.
 
The U.S. Drought Monitor of February 22 indicates that moderate 
drought conditions dominate the Canadian River headwaters at this 
time. The CPC's US Seasonal Drought Outlook of February 17 calls for
further development of drought related conditions over the next three
months.

A summary of some potential maximum stages from the ESP model output
are presented in the table below.

 
                 New Mexico Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
                    As of Sunday: February 27, 2011
                      Feb 28 - Jun 28 50% Exceedence

                                                           Weekly          
                      Flood	 50% exceedence      50% exceedence
  Station            Stage(ft)  Maximum Stage (ft)  Maximum Stage(ft)
---------------------------------------------------------------------

 
Vermejo R @Dawson      9.0           4.4                 3.5
Cimarron R @Cimarron   5.0           1.5                 0.6
Mora R @Golondrinas    5.5           1.8                 1.4
 

   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
   *                                                     *
   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php     *
   *                                                     *
   *******************************************************


			SOUTHERN KANSAS

The potential for flood conditions in southern Kansas will be normal
this spring. Most flooding in Kansas is directly related to specific
precipitation events. Most hydrologically relevant conditions in
southern Kansas reflect long-term normals.

Rainfall during the current water year has been variable across
southern Kansas. Much of southwest Kansas received more than 150% of
average.  South-central Kansas has received 50% to 110% of average
rainfall. Southeast Kansas has had near-normal rainfall for this
period.

Soil moisture across southern Kansas is running a deficit of 20 to 60
millimeters.  The greatest deficits are in the extreme southeast 
corner and in the west-central areas of the state.

Streamflows in southeastern Kansas are generally above normal.  As a 
percent of normal, streamflows diminish westward across the state.  
Flows in south-central Kansas are generally near normal while 
streamflows in southwest Kansas are generally below normal.

Reservoir storage in southern Kansas is approximating design
conditions.  U.S. Corps of Engineers data indicate that Corps
reservoir storage in southern Kansas has increased slightly in the
last two weeks.  Reservoirs currently have an average of 99
percent of their flood control storage available.

The Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) three month (MAR-APR-MAY)
outlooks call for increased chances (33-40%) of above-normal
temperatures for all of southern Kansas. The outlooks indicate 
increased chances (33-40%) of below-normal precipitation across the 
southwestern quarter of the state.  The outlooks indicate equal 
chances of normal, above-normal and below-normal precipitation in the
southeastern quarter of the state. 

The U.S. Drought Monitor of February 22 indicates a small area of 
south-central Kansas is not currently affected by drought related 
conditions. Abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions dominate 
southeast Kansas.  The southwest is experiencing slightly worse 
drought with a small area in the severe drought category.  The US 
Seasonal Drought Outlook of February 17th indicates the drought 
across southern Kansas can be expected to persist or intensify during
the next three months.

The table below displays the probability of flooding for selected
Dodge City forecast points. Current model output indicates that 
chances of minor flooding in western Kansas are low (< 11%).

                   Select Points in Western Kansas
               Kansas Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
                   As of Sunday: February 27, 2011

Fcst. Point	% Probability	   % Probability      % Probability
Station	        Minor Flooding    Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding
ID
COOK1                 5           Not Expected        Not Expected
BETK1                 3           Not Expected        Not Expected
ENWK1                11                 3             Not Expected
RCNK1           Not Expected      Not Expected        Not Expected
ZENK1                10                 8                  2
DDCK1           Not Expected      Not Expected        Not Expected



The table below presents some south-central and southeast Kansas
forecast points where the ESP model indicates a greater than 10%
chance of minor flooding.  These are not extreme conditions and do
not reflect an above-normal potential for flooding.

        Select Points in South-central and Southeast Kansas
               Kansas Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
                As of Sunday: February 27, 2011

Fcst. Point	% Probability	   % Probability      % Probability
Station         Minor Flooding    Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding
ID
AGAK1               13                  3             Not Expected
AGSK1               14                  5             Not Expected
ALMK1               19                 16                  2
ALTK1               18                 14             Not Expected
ARCK1               22                  4                  3
ARKK1               16                  6             Not Expected
ATOK1               17                  7             Not Expected
CBNK1               37            Not Expected        Not Expected
CFVK1               15                  7             Not Expected
CNUK1               25                 14             Not Expected
CTWK1               22                 14             Not Expected
DRBK1               12                  4                   3
EREK1               44                 30                  17
FLRK1               35                  2             Not Expected
FRNK1               17                  6             Not Expected
HTDK1               15                  8             Not Expected
IDPK1               26            Not Expected        Not Expected 
IOLK1               22                  5             Not Expected 
MRDK1               20                 10             Not Expected
MULK1               12                  4             Not Expected
OSWK1               41                 27                  9
OXFK1               19                  7                  2
PPFK1               44                 35             Not Expected
PLYK1               24                 10             Not Expected
SEDK1               13                  7                   4
WFDK1               21                 16                   8
AMCK1               15                 10             Not Expected
EMPK1               28                 19             Not Expected
EPRK1               24                 22             Not Expected
NEOK1               20                 18             Not Expected 

   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
   *                                                     *
   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php     *
   *                                                     *
   *******************************************************


			SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
			
The potential for flood conditions in southwestern Missouri will be
near normal this spring. Most flooding in southwest Missouri is
related to specific rainfall events.  Therefore, current conditions
do not necessarily indicate an increased or decreased risk of spring
flooding.

Rainfall during the current water year has been below average with 50
to 90 percent of average precipitation being recorded.

Through the late winter and early spring months (MAR-APR-MAY), the
Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) outlooks for southwestern Missouri
call for increased chances (33%-40%) of above-normal temperatures. 
CPC's outlooks call for equal chances (33%) of above-normal, below-
normal, and normal precipitation during the same time period.

Soil moisture in southwestern Missouri is currently below normal. 
Current soil moisture deficits are between 20 and 80 millimeters.
Stream flow in that part of the state is above normal to well-above
normal for this time of year.

The U.S. Drought Monitor of February 22 indicates most of 
southwestern Missouri is abnormally dry at this time.  The CPC's US 
Seasonal Drought Outlook of February 17th calls for no change in 
drought-related conditions over the next 3 months.


   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
   *                                                     *
   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php     *
   *                                                     *
   *******************************************************


				ARKANSAS 
 
The potential for flood conditions in western Arkansas will be near
normal this spring. Flooding in western Arkansas usually occurs in
response to specific precipitation events.  However, the Arkansas
River may flood in response to more widespread upstream conditions.
There are currently no indications of extreme hydrologic conditions
to alter the flood potential of the area.

Water-year precipitation totals across western Arkansas have
generally been below average to well-below average ranging from below
50% of normal to 90% of normal.  

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlooks for the spring (MAR-APR-
MAY) are calling for for equal chances of above-normal, normal, and
below-normal precipitation. They also call for increased chances
(33-40%) of above-normal temperatures in the northwest quarter of the
state.  Chances increase (40%-50%) in the southwest quarter of the 
state.

Soil moisture across all of Arkansas is generally well below normal. 
Soil moisture deficits exceed 100 millimeters across most of the 
western half of the state and reach as high as 160 mm in the central 
and southwestern areas of the state. Corps of Engineers projects in 
southwestern Arkansas have, on average, 99 percent of their flood 
control capacity available at this time.

Streamflows in Arkansas are near normal to above normal in the
northwest corner of the state but decreases southward.  Streamflows 
in the southwest corner of the state are below normal to well-below 
normal.  The west-central parts of the state are currently 
experiencing near-normal streamflow conditions.

The U.S. Drought Monitor of February 22 indicates western Arkansas is 
experiencing moderate to extreme drought. The most severe conditions 
are in the southwestern corner of the state.  The CPC US Seasonal 
Drought Outlook of February 17 indicates the drought will continue 
but may show some improvement over the next three months.
 

   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
   *                                                     *
   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php     *
   *                                                     *
   *******************************************************

 
				OKLAHOMA 
				
The potential for flood conditions in Oklahoma will be near normal
this spring. Flooding in Oklahoma usually occurs in response to
specific precipitation events. There are currently no indications of
extreme hydrologic conditions to alter the flood potential of the
area.
 
Water-year rainfall totals vary across Oklahoma but are generally
below average to well-below average.  Rainfall totals across eastern
Oklahoma are generally between 25 and 75 percent of average.  
Precipitation totals in western Oklahoma are closer to average 
(50%-75%). The western panhandle has been extremely dry with an 
isolated area approaching 10 percent of average.  In the entire 
state, only the eastern panhandle is approaching average 
precipitation for the water year. 

The Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) outlooks for the spring (MAR-
APR-MAY) call for equal chances (33%) of above-normal, normal, and
below-normal precipitation in most of Oklahoma. The outlook calls for
increased chances (33%-40%) of below-normal precipitation in the 
panhandle. CPC's temperature out-look calls for increased chances of 
above-normal temperatures across the state.  The chances increase 
from northeast to southwest.  There are increased chances (33%-40%) 
in the northeast corner of the state. In southern and western Oklahoma
and in the panhandle the chances are significantly increased 
(40%-50%).  

Soil moisture is currently showing a deficit across the state of 
Oklahoma.  Deficits are running about 20 millimeters in the panhandle 
and increase towards the south and west. There is a local maximum 
deficit of 100 mm near Oklahoma City but the overall trend continues 
to the southwest where soil moisture deficits are approaching 160mm.

Streams and rivers in Oklahoma are running at normal to above-normal
levels across most of Oklahoma.  The Red River and its tributaries
are experiencing more of a mix of normal and below-normal conditions.
Downstream points along the Red River are showing well-below normal 
streamflows (>10 percent of average). Streams near the panhandle and
in southwestern Oklahoma that are experiencing below-normal flows.

Reservoirs in Oklahoma have, on average, 105 percent of the flood
control storage currently available. Reservoirs in the Arkansas River
systems both average 104 percent of flood control storage available at
this time. Those in the Red River system have 106 percent of their
flood control storage available.
 
The U.S. Drought Monitor of February 22 indicates the entire state is
currently experiencing abnormally dry to severe drought conditions.  
The worst-hit areas are from central Oklahoma to the southwest corner
and an isolated pocket in the southeast corner of the state. The CPC 
US Seasonal Drought Outlook of February 17 indicates drought-related 
conditions should persist or intensify over the next three months. 
 

   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
   *                                                     *
   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php     *
   *                                                     *
   *******************************************************
 
				TEXAS 
 
The potential for flood conditions in north Texas will be near
normal this spring. Flooding in north Texas usually occurs in
response to specific precipitation events.  There are currently no
indications of extreme hydrologic conditions to alter the flood
potential of the area.

Water-year precipitation totals across northern Texas are generally
below normal.  Precipitation in the panhandle ranges from 25% to 200%
of normal.  There is an isolated pocket of above-normal rainfall near
Lipscomb, TX.  The Red River valley of northern Texas saw between 10% 
and 75% of average rainfall.  Streamflows in the panhandle are 
approximating average conditions.  Discharges in the Red River valley
are mixed and range from above average to well-below average for this
time of year. 

The Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) outlooks for the next three
months (MAR-APR-MAY) call for equal chances (33%) of above-normal,
below-normal, and normal precipitation. Only in the western panhandle
do they call for increased chances (33%-40%) of below-normal 
precipitation. CPC's temperature outlook calls for significantly 
increased chances (40-50%) of above-normal temperatures across north 
Texas and the panhandle.
 
Soil moisture conditions are reflecting the below-normal rainfall for
the water year.  Soil moisture deficits increase steadily from west 
to east.  Deficits in the western panhandle are 20 to 40 millimeters 
while deficits in the Texarkana area are approaching 160 mm.   

The U.S. Drought Monitor of February 22 shows abnormally dry 
conditions dominating the panhandle of Texas. There is an area near 
Lipscomb that is not showing any drought related conditions. The Red 
River valley is experiencing abnormally dry to extreme drought 
conditions.  The CPC US Seasonal Drought Outlook of February 17 
indicates drought-related conditions are likely to intensify
over the next 3 months. 
 
   ******************************************************* 
   *                                                     * 
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    * 
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            * 
   *                                                     * 
   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php     * 
   *                                                     * 
   ******************************************************* 
   
   
Thanks to the USGS for streamflow condition data, the U.S. Army Corps
of Engineers for reservoir condition data, the Natural Resource
Conservation Service for SNOTEL data, and the Climate Prediction
Center for the precipitation and temperature outlooks, the soil
moisture deficits, and the Drought Outlook.

$$

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