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Water Supply Flood Potential Outlook

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Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service, ABRFC, Tulsa, Oklahoma
1200 CST, Thursday, February 18, 2010

                          COLORADO 
                -- ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN--
The Rocky Mountains

The potential for flood conditions will be near normal this spring.
Flooding at most forecast points in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado
is driven by rapid snowpack runoff or isolated, high-intensity
rainfall.

The mountains of the Arkansas River basin have experienced
approximately 87 percent of average precipitation and have
accumulated 90 percent of average snowpack this water year (a more
detailed table is included below).  This water-year's precipitation-
to-date is about 92 percent of last year's. At the end of January,
mountain reservoirs in the Arkansas River basin were, on average, at
75 percent of capacity.  This represents 126 percent of average
storage and 110 percent of last year's storage.


    S N O W  -  P R E C I P I T A T I O N    U P D A T E
 
        Based on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites
              As of TUESDAY: February 16, 2010 
-------------------------------------------------------------------
BASIN             ELEV. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT   TOTAL PRECIPITATION
Data Site Name   (Ft)                      %                      % 
                       Current  Average  Avg  Current  Average  Avg
-------------------------------------------------------------------

ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN

APISHAPA         10000     5.6   5.6     100    8.5     8.1     105
BRUMLEY          10600     6.5   6.9      94    9.6     9.4     102 
FREMONT PASS     11400     9.2  11.7      79    8.8    11.0      80 
PORPHYRY CREEK   10760     9.1  11.3      81    7.9    10.6      75 
SOUTH COLONY     10800    13.2  13.0     102   15.1    17.6      86 
WHISKEY CK       10220     6.6   7.2      92    9.2    10.9      84 
                                        -----                  -----
         Basin wide percent of average    90                     87 
	  
Units = inches for the Current and Average Snow Water Equivalent 
	and Total Precipitation values

The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates there are currently no drought
related conditions in the Arkansas River basin.  Through the late
winter and early spring (FEB-MAR-APR), the Climate Prediction Center
(CPC) outlooks indicate equal chances (33%) of above-normal, below
normal, and normal temperatures in most of the Arkansas River basin.

Only the extreme southeast corner of Colorado is shown to have
increased chances (33-40%) of below-normal temperatures.  The CPC
precipitation outlook calls for increased chances (33-40%) of above
normal precipitation throughout most of the Arkansas River basin.
The extreme southeast corner of the state has significantly
increased chances (40-50%) of above-normal precipitation.

Current soil moisture estimates represent normal to above-normal
conditions throughout the Arkansas River basin.  Soil moisture
estimates increase towards the east.

The ESP model does not indicate a greater than 50 percent chance of
flooding at any forecast point.  The table below contains a summary
of the most probable maximum stages from the model output.

            Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
              As of Wednesday: February 17, 2010
               Feb 16 - Jun 16 50% Exceedence
                                                    Weekly
             Flood         50% exceedance        50% exceedence 
  Station  Stage(ft)     Maximum Stage (ft)     Maximum Stage (ft)
------------------------------------------------------------------
 Leadville     5.0                3.5                  3.5
 Salida        9.0                5.2                  4.8
 Wellsville    9.0                6.5                  6.1
 Parkdale      9.0                5.7                  5.4
 Canon City    9.0                8.5                  8.3
 Portland      9.0                5.4                  5.2
 Pueblo        8.0                6.6                  6.2



The Southeastern Plains

The potential for flood conditions will be near normal this spring.
Normal conditions for southeastern Colorado reflect a low
probability of flooding. 

Visible satellite images show little visible snowpack except in
isolated higher elevations. Soil moisture in the plains of southeast
Colorado near the Kansas border is above normal with values between
the 70th and 90th percentiles. However, soil moisture is closer to
normal (30th to 70th percentiles)in the foothills.

The Arkansas River is generally flowing at normal levels with
isolated stations reporting below-normal conditions. Fountain Creek
is flowing at normal to much-above normal levels.
 
The ESP model does not indicate any probabilities of flooding
greater than 50 percent. The table below shows the probability of
flooding during the next 120 days at 4 forecast points.

             Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
               As of Wednesday: February 17, 2010

Fcst Point    % Probability    % Probability      % Probability 
Station	    Minor Flooding  Moderate Flooding	Major Flooding
ID
ARCC2          Not Expected     Not Expected      Not Expected
LXHC2             43                 10                  6
LAPC2             18                  6                  4
LMAC2              7             Not Expected     Not Expected

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor there are no drought or 
drought-related conditions in the plains of southeastern Colorado
CPC's U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook indicates no drought-related
conditions are expected to develop over the next 3 months.


   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
   *                                                     *
   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php     *
   *                                                     *
   *******************************************************



		NEW MEXICO -- CANADIAN RIVER BASIN 
 
The potential for spring flooding for northeastern New Mexico is 
normal. Normal flood potential in northeast New Mexico means a low 
probability of flooding. Flooding in New Mexico is generally driven 
by rapid snowmelt runoff or high-intensity rainfall.  There are 
currently no indications of extreme hydrologic conditions to alter 
the flood potential of the area.

The Sangre De Cristo Mountains mark the headwaters of the Canadian
River in New Mexico. These mountains have experienced about 106
percent of average precipitation this water year.  They have
accumulated 108 percent-of-average snowpack (a more detailed table
is included below). Water-year-to-date (October 1 to present)
precipitation (as a percent of average) increases eastward across
the plains.  Precipitation totals increase to 150 to 200 percent of
average on the Texas border.
 
          S N O W  -  P R E C I P I T A T I O N    U P D A T E  
              Based on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites 
                    As of TUESDAY: Feb 16, 2010  
------------------------------------------------------------------ 
BASIN             ELEV. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT  TOTAL PRECIPITATION 
Data Site Name    (Ft)                    %                      % 
                       Current  Average Avg  Current  Average  Avg 
------------------------------------------------------------------ 
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAIN RANGE BASINS

 CULEBRA #2     10500     8.3     9.2    90      7.6     9.2    83 
 GALLEGOS PEAK   9800     6.8     8.2    83      9.5    10.0    95 
 NORTH COSTILLA 10600     6.0     4.1   146      9.1     8.6   106 
 RED RVR PASS #2 9850     5.7     5.8    98      8.1     6.9   117 
 TOLBY          10180     7.3     5.5   133     10.5     8.9   118 
 TRINCHERA      10860     6.2     7.0    89      6.9     7.8    88 
 WESNER SPGS    11120    11.1    11.0   101     14.1    13.0   108 
                                       -----                 -----
       Basin wide percent of average    108                    106 


Visible satellite imagery shows a significant snowpack in the plains
of northeast New Mexico. Soil moisture in northeastern New Mexico is
normal throughout the Canadian River basin. The Canadian River is
flowing at normal levels(50th -75th percentiles) in the plains but
no data is available in the mountain headwaters.  At the end of
February, Conchas Reservoir contents were 27 percent of conservation
pool.
 
Through the late winter and early spring (FEB-MAR-APR), the Climate
Prediction Center (CPC) outlooks indicate increased chances (33-40%)
of above-normal temperatures in the plains of northeast New Mexico.
They also indicate a significantly increased chance (40-50%) of
above-normal precipitation over that same period.

The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates there are no drought or drought-
related conditions in the Canadian River headwaters at this time.
The CPC's US Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for no drought related
conditions to develop over the next three months.

A summary of some potential maximum stages from the ESP model output 
are presented in the table below.

 
                 New Mexico Ensemble Streamflow Prediction 
                    As of Wednesday: February 17, 2010 
                      Feb 16 - Jun 16 50% Exceedence

                                                           Weekly
                      Flood	 50% exceedance      50% exceedence
  Station            Stage(ft)  Maximum Stage (ft)  Maximum Stage(ft)
--------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Vermejo R @Dawson      9.0           5.0                 3.7 
Cimarron R @Cimarron   1.8           5.0                 1.1 
Mora R @Golondrinas    5.5           2.0                 1.6 
 

   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
   *                                                     *
   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php     *
   *                                                     *
   *******************************************************



			SOUTHERN KANSAS

The potential for flood conditions in southern Kansas will be normal
this spring. Most flooding in Kansas is directly related to specific
precipitation events. Most hydrologically relevant conditions in
southern Kansas reflect long-term normals.

Rainfall during the current water year has been variable across
southern Kansas. Much of southwest Kansas received more than 159% of
average.  South-central Kansas has received 50 to 100% of average
rainfall. Southeast Kansas has had more-or-less normal rainfall for
this period.

Soil moisture across southern Kansas varies with a maximum (70th -
90th  percentile) southwest of Dodge City.  South-central Kansas has
normal (30th - 70th  percentile) soil moisture.  Trends increase
toward the east so that soil moisture in parts of southeast Kansas
are well-above normal (80th - 90th percentiles).

Streamflows in southeastern and south-central Kansas are near to
above normal.  Streamflows in southwest Kansas are normal with
isolated stations reporting below-normal conditions.

Reservoir storage in southern Kansas is approximating design
conditions.  U.S. Corps of Engineers data indicate that Corps
reservoirs in southern Kansas currently have an average of 99
percent of their flood control storage available at this time

Through the late winter and early spring months (FEB-MAR-APR), the
Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) outlooks for southern Kansas calls
for increased chances(33-40%) of experiencing above-normal
temperatures in extreme southwest Kansas.  Chances decrease towards
the east until the outlook calls for equal chances (33%) of above-
normal, below-normal, and normal temperatures over the period. The
outlook calls for a significantly increased chance (40-50%) of above-
normal precipitation for southwest Kansas. The chances diminish
eastward so that the central portion  of the state has an increased
chance (33-40%) of above-normal precipitation.  The outlook for
southeast Kansas calls for equal chances (33%) of above-normal,
below-normal, and normal precipitation.

The U.S. Drought Monitor currently indicates no drought or drought-
related conditions in southern Kansas. The CPC's US Seasonal Drought
Outlook calls for no development of drought related conditions in
the next three months.

The probability of flooding for selected Dodge City forecast points
where the model indicates a chance of flooding. Current model output
indicates that chances of minor flooding in western Kansas are low
(< 16%).

                   Select Points in Western Kansas
               Kansas Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
                As of Wednesday: February 17, 2010

Fcst. Point	% Probability	   % Probability      % Probability 
Station		Minor Flooding	  Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding
ID
COOK1                 7                 2             Not Expected
BETK1                12                 4                  3
ENWK1                16                 4             Not Expected
RCNK1                 6                 4                  3
ZENK1                 8                 7                  4
DDCK1           Not Expected      Not Expected        Not Expected 



The table below presents some south-central and southeast Kansas
forecast points where the ESP model indicated a greater than 20%
chance of minor flooding.  These are not extreme conditions and do
not reflect an above-normal potential for flooding

        Select Points in South-central and Southeast Kansas
               Kansas Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
                As of Wednesday: February 17, 2010

Fcst. Point	% Probability	   % Probability      % Probability
Station		Minor Flooding	  Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding
ID
CBNK1               44                  3             Not Expected
ARKK1               25                  7             Not Expected
CNUK1               35                 21                   2
ATOK1               22                  7             Not Expected
CTWK1               32                 19             Not Expected
EREK1               39                 30                  22
FLRK1               35                  2             Not Expected
FRNK1               25                 10             Not Expected
IDPK1               31            Not Expected        Not Expected
OSWK1               49                 34                  8
PLYK1               32                 11             Not Expected
PPFK1               54                 48             Not Expected
WFDK1               40                 28                  13
CTWK1               33                 11             Not Expected
EMPK1               41                 27             Not Expected
EPRK1               35                 34             Not Expected
NEOK1               39                 35             Not Expected
AGSK1               22                 11             Not Expected
ARCK1               28                 10                 4
CFVK1               25                  7             Not Expected
IOLK1               28                 10             Not Expected
MRDK1               23                  7             Not Expected
TOWK1               21                 16             Not Expected


   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
   *                                                     *
   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php     *
   *                                                     *
   *******************************************************
			SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
			
The potential for flood conditions in southwestern Missouri will be
near normal this spring. Most flooding in southwest Missouri is
related to specific rainfall events.  Therefore, current conditions
do not necessarily indicate an increased or decreased risk of spring
flooding.

Rainfall during the current water year has been near normal with 90
to 150 percent of average precipitation being recorded. Soil
moisture in southwestern Missouri is currently well-above normal
(80-95th percentile). Stream flow in that part of the state is near
normal.

Through the late winter and early spring months (FEB-MAR-APR), the
Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) outlooks for southwestern Missouri
call for equal chances (33%) of experiencing above-normal, normal,
or below-normal temperatures. They also indicate equal chances (33%)
of above-normal, normal, or below-normal precipitation for the
same period.

The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates there are no drought conditions
in southwestern Missouri at this time.  The CPC's US Seasonal
Drought Outlook calls for no development of drought-related
conditions over the next 3 months.


   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
   *                                                     *
   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php     *
   *                                                     *
   *******************************************************


				ARKANSAS 
 
The potential for flood conditions in western Arkansas will be near
normal this spring. Except for the main stem of the Arkansas River,
flooding in western Arkansas usually occurs in response to specific
precipitation events.  The Arkansas River may flood in response to
more widespread upstream conditions. There are currently no
indications of extreme hydrologic conditions to alter the flood
potential of the area.

Water-year precipitation totals across western Arkansas have
generally been average to above average, with an increasing trend
towards the south and east.  Precipitation estimates are close to
average in northeast and west-central Arkansas.  Totals increase to
150 to 200 percent of average in the extreme southwestern and
central areas of the state.

Soil moisture across western Arkansas is generally well above
normal. Soil moisture estimates in excess of the 90th percentile are
frequent in the western half of the state.  Rivers and streams are
flowing at normal to above-normal levels in western Arkansas. Corps
of Engineers projects in western Arkansas have, on average, 90
percent of their flood control capacity available at this time.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlooks are calling for equal
chances (33%) of above-normal, normal, or below-normal temperatures
for the late winter and early spring (FEB-MAR-APR).  They also call
for equal chances of above-normal, normal, and below-normal
precipitation as well. The U.S. Drought Monitor shows no drought or
drought-related conditions in Arkansas. The CPC Drought Outlook does
not indicate the development any of drought-related conditions
during the next three months.
 

   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
   *                                                     *
   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php     *
   *                                                     *
   *******************************************************

 
				OKLAHOMA 
The potential for flood conditions in Oklahoma will be near normal
this spring. Flooding in Oklahoma usually occurs in response to
specific precipitation events. There are currently no indications of
extreme hydrologic conditions to alter the flood potential of the
area.

Water-year rainfall totals vary across Oklahoma but are generally
near average.  Rainfall totals are generally between 75 and 150
percent of average.

Soil moisture is well above normal (80-95th percentile) in
southeastern Oklahoma.  Soil moisture decreases towards more normal
conditions (30-70th percentile) in the panhandle.

Streams and rivers in Oklahoma are running at near-normal levels
across most of Oklahoma.  The exceptions are the panhandle and the
main-stem of the Red River.  Rivers in the panhandle are flowing at
below-normal to much-below normal levels.  The Red River is flowing
at much-above normal levels.

Reservoirs in Oklahoma have, on average, 93 percent of the flood
control storage currently available. Reservoirs in the Arkansas and
Red River systems both average 93 percent of flood control storage
available at this time.
 
The Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) outlooks for the late winter
and early spring (FEB-MAR-APR) call for increased chances (33-40%)
of below-normal temperatures throughout Oklahoma.  The precipitation
outlook calls for equal chances (33%) of above-normal, normal, and
below-normal precipitation in eastern Oklahoma. Central Oklahoma has
increased chances (33-40%) of above-normal precipitation and the
west has significantly increased chances (40-50%).  

The U.S. Drought Monitor shows no drought or drought-related
conditions across Oklahoma. The CPC Drought Outlook indicates no
drought-related conditions should develop over the next three months.
 
 

   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
   *                                                     *
   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php     *
   *                                                     *
   *******************************************************
 
				TEXAS 
 
The potential for flood conditions in north Texas will be near
normal this spring. Flooding in north Texas usually occurs in
response to specific precipitation events.  There are currently no
indications of extreme hydrologic conditions to alter the flood
potential of thearea.

Water-year precipitation totals across northern Texas are generally
near-normal to above normal.  Areas in the western panhandle have
received 100% to 300% of their average precipitation.  The remainder
of northern Texas saw between 75% and 150% of average rainfall.

Soil moisture conditions across northern Texas range from normal in
the panhandle to extremely high in the central and lower Red River
valley. The Red River is flowing at well-above-normal levels from
the panhandle eastward.  Tributaries of the Red River in the Texas
panhandle are flowing at near-normal levels.  Reservoirs in the Red
River drainage in Texas have an average of 117 percent of the flood
control pool still available.
 
The Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) outlook for the next three
months (FEB-MAR-APR) calls for increased chances (33-40%) of below-
normal temperatures in the panhandle.  Chances for below-normal
temperatures increase (40-50%) eastward across north Texas. The
Precipitation Outlook calls for significantly increased chances
(40-50%) of above-normal precipitation in the panhandle.  Chances
for above-normal precipitation decrease eastward.  Chances for above
normal precipitation are increased (33-40%) in the central Red River
valley.  There are equal chances (33%) for above-normal, below
normal, and normal precipitation in the lower Red River valley.

The U.S. Drought Monitor shows no drought or drought-related
conditions in north Texas or the panhandle.  The CPC Drought
Outlook indicates no drought-related conditions are expected to
develop over the next 3 months.
 
Thanks to the USGS for streamflow condition data, U.S. Army Corps of
Engineers for reservoir condition data, and the Natural Resource
Conservation Service for SNOTEL data.
 
   ******************************************************* 
   *                                                     * 
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    * 
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            * 
   *                                                     * 
   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php     * 
   *                                                     * 
   ******************************************************* 
 
$$

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