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Water Supply Flood Potential Outlook

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Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service, ABRFC, Tulsa, Oklahoma
1210 CST, Wednesday, March 2, 2016

                          COLORADO 
                -- ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN--
		
The Rocky Mountains

The potential for flood conditions will be near normal this spring.
Flooding at most forecast points in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado
is driven by rapid snowpack runoff or isolated, high-intensity
rainfall.

As measured at high altitude SNOTEL monitoring stations, the 
mountains of the Arkansas River basin have received approximately
98 percent-of-median precipitation and have accumulated 94 
percent-of-median snowpack this water year. (A more detailed table 
is included below.)  At the end of February, mountain reservoirs in 
the Arkansas River basin (Turquoise, Twin Lakes, Pueblo) were, on 
average, at 99 percent-of-capacity. This represents 138 percent-of-
average storage and 103 percent of last year's storage.


    S N O W  -  P R E C I P I T A T I O N    U P D A T E
 
        Based on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites
              As of Wednesday: March 2, 2016
-------------------------------------------------------------------
BASIN             ELEV. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT   TOTAL PRECIPITATION
Data Site Name   (Ft)                    %                     % 
                      Current  Median Median  Current Median Median
-------------------------------------------------------------------

ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN

APISHAPA         10000    4.2    6.9     61    9.1     9.6     95
BRUMLEY          10600    8.8    7.6    116    8.7    10.2     85
FREMONT PASS     11400   11.9   11.9    100   13.2    11.9    111
PORPHYRY CREEK   10760   14.0   12.2    115   11.8    11.9     99
SOUTH COLONY     10800   14.6   15.1     97   16.7    16.6    101
WHISKEY CK       10220    6.4    8.9     72   11.6    12.4     94
                                       -----                 -----
         Basin wide percent-of-average   94                    98
	  
Units = inches for the Current and Average Snow Water Equivalent
	and Total Precipitation values

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Seasonal Outlooks for winter and
early spring (MAR-APR-MAY) indicate equal chances of below normal,
above normal, or near normal temperatures in the mountains of 
Colorado, except in the far south. In that area, chances are slightly
increased for below normal temperatures. The precipitation outlook for 
the same period indicates increased chances (> 50%) of above median 
precipitation in the mountains and plains of Colorado.  
 
The U.S. Drought Monitor of March 3, 2016 indicates that the mountain 
headwaters of the Arkansas River are not currently experiencing drought 
conditions.  There are a few small areas of abnormally dry (D0) 
conditions in Colorado. Otherwise, the state is drought-free. The CPC 
Seasonal Drought Outlook of February 18, 2016 shows that drought 
conditions are not expected to develop or intensify in the next several 
months.

Current estimates from the CPC indicate that soils in the mountains
are near normal in terms of soil moisture, with values between the
30th and 70th percentiles.  

The Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) model does not indicate a 
greater than 50 percent chance of flooding at any forecast point.  
The table below contains a summary of some potential maximum stages
from the model output.

            Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
               As of Wednesday: March 2, 2016
                 March 2 - Jun 30 50% Exceedence
						    Weekly     
	     Flood         50% exceedence    	50% exceedence
  Station  Stage(ft)     Maximum Stage (ft)     Maximum Stage (ft)
------------------------------------------------------------------
 Leadville     9.0		  6.9		       6.7
 Salida        8.0		  4.3		       4.1
 Wellsville    9.0		  5.7		       5.6
 Parkdale      9.0		  4.9		       4.7
 Canon City   10.0		  7.8		       7.6
 Portland      9.0		  4.7		       4.4
 Pueblo        8.0		  6.6		       5.8


The Southeastern Plains

The potential for flood conditions will be near normal this spring.
Normal conditions for southeastern Colorado reflect a low probability
of flooding.

Estimates from the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing 
Center (NOHRSC) indicate there is no current snowpack in the plains 
of southeast Colorado. According to the CPC soil moisture estimates, 
the plains of the Arkansas Basin are generally above normal with values 
above the 70th percentile. 

According to the USGS stream gages, flows along Fountain Creek in 
central Colorado are above seasonal normals. The mainstem of the 
Arkansas River is flowing at near normal levels. The near normal flows 
continue all the way to the Kansas border. At the end of February, 
reservoirs affecting the Arkansas River below Pueblo (Meredith, 
Trinidad, and John Martin) were, on average, at 128 percent-of-capacity.  
This represents 155 percent-of-average storage and 319 percent of last 
year's storage. Most of this difference is in John Martin Reservoir, 
which filled quite a bit last year. 
 
The ESP model does not indicate any probabilities of flooding
greater than 50 percent. The table below shows the probability of
flooding during the next 120 days at four forecast points in the 
plains of southeast Colorado.

             Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
               As of Wednesday: March 2, 2016

Fcst Point    % Probability    % Probability      % Probability
Station      Minor Flooding  Moderate Flooding     Major Flooding
ID
ARCC2          Not Expected     Not Expected      Not Expected
LXHC2             16            Not Expected      Not Expected
LAPC2              9            Not Expected      Not Expected
LMAC2          Not Expected     Not Expected      Not Expected

Precipitation during the last 90 days has been below average in 
southeast Colorado, while being above normal further north in the
northeast part of the state. Most areas along the I-25 corridor 
received near normal precipitation amounts for the last 3 months. 
The mountains to the west of the I-25 corridor were a bit drier 
than normal, but not excessively dry.

There are a few small areas of abnormally dry (D0) conditions 
across Colorado. Otherwise, the state is drought-free, according 
to the U.S. Drought Monitor of March 3, 2016. The CPC Seasonal 
Drought Outlook of February 18, 2016 shows that drought conditions 
are not expected to develop or intensify in the next 
several months. The U.S. Drought Monitor shows areas along the I-25 
corridor near Pueblo are free of drought related conditions.  

   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
   *                                                     *
   *       www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/?n=water_supply        *
   *                                                     *
   *******************************************************


		NEW MEXICO -- CANADIAN RIVER BASIN

The potential for spring flooding for northeastern New Mexico is
near normal. Normal conditions in northeast New Mexico reflect a 
low probability of flooding. Flooding in New Mexico is generally 
driven by rapid snow melt runoff or high-intensity rainfall. 

The Sangre de Cristo Mountains mark the headwaters of the Canadian
River in New Mexico. These mountains have experienced about 113
percent-of-median precipitation this water year and have accumulated
101 percent-of-median snowpack. 
 
          S N O W  -  P R E C I P I T A T I O N    U P D A T E
              Based on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites
                    As of Wednesday: March 2, 2016
------------------------------------------------------------------
BASIN             ELEV. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT  TOTAL PRECIPITATION 
Data Site Name    (Ft)                   %                     %
                       Current Median Median Current Median Median
------------------------------------------------------------------
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAIN RANGE BASINS

 CULEBRA #2      10500   11.3    10.5   108     9.8    10.2    96
 GALLEGOS PEAK    9800   10.4     9.9   105    15.8    11.6   141
 NORTH COSTILLA  10600    5.0     5.9    85    10.0    10.0   100
 RED RVR PASS #2  9850    5.2     6.9    75     8.7     8.0   109
 TOLBY           10180    6.6     7.2    92    11.4    10.1   113
 TRINCHERA       10860    9.7     8.0   121     8.7     9.0    97
 WESNER SPGS     11120   14.6    12.3   119    19.8    14.6   136
                                       -----                 -----
       Basin wide percent-of-average    101                   113

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Seasonal Outlooks for 
northeastern New Mexico indicate there are increased chances (40%-
50%) of below normal temperatures during the next three months. 
Precipitation outlooks for the same period indicate significantly 
increased chances (>50%) of above median precipitation. 

Snow cover models from National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing 
Center (NOHRSC) show no snowpack in the plains of northeastern New 
Mexico. Soil moisture in northeastern New Mexico is above normal at 
this time, with estimates above the 70th percentile.  

Most stream gages on the Canadian River and its tributaries are 
affected by ice at this time.  A generalized statement of current
streamflow is therefore, difficult to make. However, the Canadian
River at Sanchez is currently near normal, while further downstream, 
the Canadian River at Logan is showing below normal flow. At the end 
of February, the contents of Conchas Reservoir constituted 78 percent 
of the reservoir capacity and 99 percent-of-average contents at this 
date. Contents of Eagle Nest Reservoir were at 40 percent-of-capacity 
and 170 percent of last year.
 
Water-year-to-date (October 1 to present) precipitation in north-
eastern New Mexico is generally above average. Most areas have 
received near their average precipitation in the last 90 days. 

The U.S. Drought Monitor of March 3, 2016 indicates no drought across 
the northeast part of the state. The CPC's US Seasonal Drought Outlook 
of February 18, 2016 calls for no drought conditions to develop during 
the next three months.

A summary of some potential maximum stages from the ESP model output
are presented in the table below.

 
                 New Mexico Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
                    As of Wednesday: March 2, 2016
                      March 2 - Jun 30 50% Exceedence

                                                           Weekly          
                      Flood	 50% exceedence      50% exceedence
  Station            Stage(ft)  Maximum Stage (ft)  Maximum Stage(ft)
---------------------------------------------------------------------

 
Vermejo R @Dawson      9.0           6.2                 4.7
Cimarron R @Cimarron   5.0           2.8                 1.8
Mora R @Golondrinas    5.5           2.8                 2.0
 

   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
   *                                                     *
   *       www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/?n=water_supply        *
   *                                                     *
   *******************************************************


			SOUTHERN KANSAS

The potential for flood conditions in southern Kansas will be near
normal this spring.  Most flooding in Kansas is directly related to
specific precipitation events. 

Rainfall during the last 90 days has been scattered across southern 
Kansas. The far-southeast corner is above normal for the period, but 
precipitation west of there was below normal. Moving westward, above 
normal precipitation fell across south-central Kansas, while below 
normal fell across the far-western part of the state. 
 
Snowpack estimates from the National Operational Hydrologic Remote 
Sensing Center (NOHRSC) indicate no snowpack in southern Kansas. Soil 
moisture conditions in southern Kansas are varied, with near normal 
estimates across south-central Kansas and above normal (>70th 
percentile) across the southwest and southeast. 

Streamflows in far-western Kansas are generally near normal. Conditions 
worsen toward the south-central part of the state with gages below the 
25th percentile. Flows improve to near normal across the eastern part 
of Kansas.

Reservoir storage in southern Kansas is near design conditions. U.S. 
Army Corps of Engineers data indicate that Corps reservoirs currently 
have an average of 99 percent of their flood control storage available.

The Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) Seasonal Outlook (MAR-APR-MAY)
indicates there are increased chances for above median precipitation 
across the western half of the state. Those chances increase moving 
westward. Otherwise the outlooks indicate equal chances of above 
normal, below normal, or near normal temperatures.

The U.S. Drought Monitor of March 3, 2016 indicates a couple of small 
areas of Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions across southern Kansas. Otherwise,
no drought is present across the state. The US Seasonal Drought Outlook 
of February 18, 2016 indicates no drought development is expected during 
the next three months.

The table below displays the probability of flooding for selected
Dodge City forecast pointsduring the next 3 months. Current model output 
indicates that chances of minor flooding in western Kansas are 
relatively low (< 20%).

                   Select Points in Western Kansas
               Kansas Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
                   As of Wednesday: March 2, 2016

Fcst. Point	% Probability	   % Probability      % Probability
Station	        Minor Flooding    Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding
ID
COOK1                 9                 2             Not Expected
BETK1                 6                 2             Not Expected
ENWK1                19                 9                  2
FRGO2                10                 4             Not Expected
RCNK1                 9                 3                  2
ZENK1                11                 6             Not Expected
DDCK1                 2           Not Expected        Not Expected



The table below presents some south-central and southeast Kansas
forecast points where the ESP model indicates a greater than 15 
percent chance of minor flooding during the next 90 days.  These are 
not extreme conditions and do not reflect an above normal potential 
for flooding.

        Select Points in South-central and Southeast Kansas
               Kansas Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
                As of Wednesday: March 2, 2016

Fcst. Point	% Probability	   % Probability      % Probability
Station         Minor Flooding    Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding
ID
ALMK1               27                 18                  2
ARCK1               41                 13                  3
ARKK1               15                  3             Not Expected
ATOK1               22                  5             Not Expected
CBNK1               37                  2             Not Expected
CNUK1               41                 19                  5
COWK1               22            Not Expected        Not Expected
CFVK1               20                  8             Not Expected
CTWK1               21                 15             Not Expected
DRBK1               17                  3             Not Expected
EREK1               43                 37                 20
FLRK1               37                  3             Not Expected
FRNK1               22                  8             Not Expected
HTDK1               20                 11                  2
IDPK1               37            Not Expected        Not Expected
IOLK1               19                  2             Not Expected 
MDKK1               28                 10             Not Expected
MULK1               15                  3             Not Expected
OSWK1               52                 47                  8
OXFK1               27                 19             Not Expected
PPFK1               52                 48             Not Expected
PLYK1               29                 12             Not Expected
SEDK1               19                  8                  7
TOWK1               17                  9             Not Expected
WFDK1               22                 15                  6
EMPK1               30                 21             Not Expected
EPRK1               20                 16             Not Expected
NEOK1               31                 29             Not Expected 

   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
   *                                                     *
   *       www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/?n=water_supply        *
   *                                                     *
   *******************************************************


			SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
			
The potential for flood conditions in southwestern Missouri will be
near normal this spring. Most flooding in southwest Missouri is
related to specific rainfall events.  Therefore, current conditions
do not necessarily indicate an increased or decreased risk of spring
flooding.

Precipitation during the last 90 days has been above average, with 
widespread estimates of two to six inches above seasonal normals. 
Much of this precipitation fell in late December. 

The Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) Seasonal Outlook (MAR-APR-MAY)
calls for equal chances of above normal, below normal, and 
near normal temperatures and above median, below median, and near
median precipitation across southwestern Missouri.

Snowpack estimates from the National Operational Hydrologic Remote 
Sensing Center (NOHRSC) indicate no snowpack in southwest Missouri. 
Soil moisture in southwest Missouri is currently well above normal 
(>80th percentiles). Streamflow in that part of the state is near to
slightly below normal for this time of year.

The U.S. Drought Monitor of March 3, 2016 indicates most of 
southwestern Missouri is experiencing no drought conditions. CPC's US 
Seasonal Drought Outlook of February 18, 2016 indicates little potential 
for the development of drought conditions during the next 3 months.

The table below presents some southwestern Missouri forecast points 
where the ESP model indicated a greater than 10 percent chance of 
minor flooding over the next 90 days.  These are not extreme conditions 
and do not reflect an above normal potential for flooding.

                 Select Points in Southwest Missouri
                    Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
                   As of Wednesday: March 2, 2016

Fcst. Point	% Probability	   % Probability      % Probability 
Station		Minor Flooding	  Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding
ID
CHTM7               27                  7             Not Expected
TIFM7               22                  8                    3
WCOM7               28            Not Expected        Not Expected
BXTK1               21                  8             Not Expected

   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
   *                                                     *
   *       www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/?n=water_supply        *
   *                                                     *
   *******************************************************


				ARKANSAS 
 
The potential for flood conditions in western Arkansas will be near
normal this spring. Flooding in western Arkansas usually occurs in
response to specific precipitation events.  However, the Arkansas
River may flood in response to more widespread upstream conditions.
There are currently no indications of extreme hydrologic conditions
to alter the flood potential of the area.

Precipitation totals during the last 90 days for western Arkansas 
have been significantly above average. Much of this precipitation 
fell in late December. Southwestern and central Arkansas are drier,
with most areas near normal during the past 90 days.

Snowpack estimates from the National Operational Hydrologic Remote 
Sensing Center (NOHRSC) indicate no snowpack in Arkansas, which is 
normal. Soil moisture conditions in western Arkansas are above normal
(>70th percentile), while areas further east and south are near 
normal.

Corps of Engineers projects in southwestern Arkansas are near levels 
approximating design conditions. They have approximately 97 percent 
of their flood control capacity available at this time. Streamflows 
in western Arkansas are near to above normal.

The Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) Seasonal Outlook (MAR-APR-MAY)
calls for equal chances of above normal, below normal, and near
normal temperatures and above median, below median, and near median 
precipitation across western and central Arkansas.

The U.S. Drought Monitor of March 3, 2016 indicates no drought 
conditions across central and western Arkansas. CPC's Seasonal 
Drought Outlook of February 18, 2016 calls for no development of 
drought conditions during the next three months.

 

   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
   *                                                     *
   *       www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/?n=water_supply        *
   *                                                     *
   *******************************************************

 
				OKLAHOMA 
				
The potential for flood conditions in Oklahoma will be normal across 
the state. Flooding in Oklahoma usually occurs in response to specific,
heavy precipitation events. 
 
Precipitation totals for the last 90 days are well above normal across 
eastern Oklahoma and considerably drier across the western part of the 
state. There are widespread areas in the east that received more than 
150 percent-of-average precipitation during the past 90 days. Much of 
this precipitation fell in late December. A few scattered areas across
the western half of Oklahoma have received less than 75 percent-of-
average rainfall during the same period. 

The Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) Seasonal Outlook (MAR-APR-MAY)
calls for increased chances (33%-40%) of below normal temperatures 
across southwestern Oklahoma, with equal chances of above normal, 
below normal, and near normal temperatures across the remainder of the 
state. The outlook also calls for increased chances of above normal
precipitation across the western half of Oklahoma and equal chances
across the eastern half. The increased chances for above normal 
precipitation are higher toward the western reaches of the state.  

Soil moisture across the state of Oklahoma currently is dominated by 
above normal values (>70th percentile). Values across the western 
Oklahoma Panhandle exceed the 90th percentile. 

Stream and river discharges in Oklahoma are generally near or above 
seasonal normals, with a few locations across the northwest and 
northeast areas seeing below normal flows.

Reservoir storage in Oklahoma currently varies between the structures
in the Arkansas River system and those in the Red River system.  U.S. 
Army Corps of Engineers projects in Oklahoma are near levels 
approximating design conditions. The reservoirs in western Oklahoma 
have 105 percent of their flood control storage available at this time.  
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers projects in eastern Oklahoma are also near 
levels approximating design conditions. Available capacity in the 
Arkansas system is approximately 95 percent of designed flood control 
storage. Available capacity in the Red River system is approximately 98 
percent of design flood control storage. 
 
The U.S. Drought Monitor of March 3, 2016 indicates much of Oklahoma 
is experiencing no drought, with a few scattered areas of Abnormally 
Dry (D0) conditions across western Oklahoma. These D0 areas have been 
expanding during the past few weeks. 

CPC's Seasonal Drought Outlook of February 19, 2015 calls for no 
development or intensification of drought conditions across Oklahoma. 
Another few weeks of dry weather will be needed to change the D0 to D1 
in western Oklahoma. This is not currently forecast to occur, but 
time will tell.
 

   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
   *                                                     *
   *       www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/?n=water_supply        *
   *                                                     *
   *******************************************************
 
				TEXAS 
 
The potential for flood conditions in north Texas will be near normal 
this year. In the Panhandle, the potential for flooding will also
be near normal. Flooding in North Texas and the Panhandle usually 
occurs in response to specific heavy precipitation events. 

Precipitation totals for the last 90 days across all of northern
Texas has been highly variable. The northeast part of the state 
received well above normal precipitation, due to extreme rainfall
in late December. Other parts of northwest Texas and the Panhandle 
saw scattered areas of below or above normal precipitation.

Streamflows across all of northern Texas are mostly near normal, with 
a few locations running below normal. Flows in the Panhandle are
generally running near season normals. 

The Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) Seasonal Outlook for the next 
three months (MAR-APR-MAY) calls for increased chances (33%-40%) of 
below normal temperatures across the western 2/3 of North Texas and the 
Panhandle. The northeast part of the state should see equal chances. 
The Outlook also indicates there are equal chances of above median, 
below median, and near median precipitation across far-northeast Texas. 
Moving westward, chances for above normal precipitation increase to a
40-50% chance across northwest Texas and a >50% chance across the 
western Panhandle. 
 
Soil moisture conditions at the end of February are generally above 
normal across North Texas (>70th percentile) and especially the 
Panhandle. Soil moisture is above the 90th percentile across the 
northern parts of the Panhandle. 

The U.S. Drought Monitor of March 3, 2016 shows a couple of 
Abnormally Dry (D0) areas in the Panhandle. Otherwise, the remainder of
northern Texas is currently expeciencing no drought. The CPC US 
Seasonal Drought Outlook of February 18, 2016 indicates drought 
conditions across North Texas are not expected to develop during the 
next three months.
 

 
   ******************************************************* 
   *                                                     * 
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    * 
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            * 
   *                                                     * 
   *       www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/?n=water_supply        * 
   *                                                     * 
   ******************************************************* 
   
   
Thanks to the USGS for streamflow condition data, the U.S. Army Corps
of Engineers for reservoir condition data, the Natural Resource
Conservation Service for SNOTEL data, and the Climate Prediction
Center for the precipitation and temperature outlooks, the soil
moisture deficits, and the Drought Outlook.

$$

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