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Water Supply Flood Potential Outlook

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Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service, ABRFC, Tulsa, Oklahoma
1630 CST, Wednesday, March 5, 2014

                          COLORADO 
                -- ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN--
		
The Rocky Mountains

The potential for flood conditions will be near normal this spring.
Flooding at most forecast points in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado
is driven by rapid snowpack runoff or isolated, high-intensity
rainfall.

As measured at high altitude SNOTEL monitoring stations, the 
mountains of the Arkansas River basin have experienced approximately
102 percent-of-average precipitation and have accumulated 102 
percent-of-average snowpack this water year. (A more detailed table 
is included below.)  At the end of February, mountain reservoirs in 
the Arkansas River basin (Turquoise, Twin Lakes, Pueblo) were, on 
average, at 60 percent of capacity. This represents 93 percent-of-
average storage and 120 percent of last year's storage.


    S N O W  -  P R E C I P I T A T I O N    U P D A T E
 
        Based on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites
              As of Monday: March 3, 2014
-------------------------------------------------------------------
BASIN             ELEV. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT   TOTAL PRECIPITATION
Data Site Name   (Ft)                    %                     % 
                      Current  Median Median  Current Median Median
-------------------------------------------------------------------

ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN

APISHAPA         10000    1.0    6.9     14    6.5     9.7     67
BRUMLEY          10600   12.0    7.6    158   10.6    10.3    103
FREMONT PASS     11400   16.2   12.0    135   16.0    12.0    133
PORPHYRY CREEK   10760   17.0   12.3    138   14.7    12.0    122
SOUTH COLONY     10800   15.8   15.2    104   17.9    16.8    107
WHISKEY CK       10220    5.2    9.0     58    9.6    12.5     77
                                       -----                 -----
         Basin wide percent-of-average  101                   102
	  
Units = inches for the Current and Average Snow Water Equivalent
	and Total Precipitation values

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Seasonal Outlooks for winter and
early spring (MAR-APR-MAY) indicate equal chances of below-normal,
above-normal, or near-normal temperatures in the mountains of 
southeast Colorado. Chances of above-normal temperatures increase 
slightly (33%-40%) to the southwest.  The precipitation outlook for 
the same period indicates equal chances of above-normal, below-
normal, and near-normal precipitation throughout southeastern 
Colorado. 
 
The U.S. Drought Monitor of February 25 indicates that the mountain
headwaters of the Arkansas River are currently experiencing 
Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions.  These conditions continue into the
plains and gradually worsen. The CPC Drought Outlook of February 20th
shows that drought conditions are not expected to develop or 
intensify in the next several months.

Current estimates from the CPC indicate that soils in the mountains
continue to hold precipitation received in the fall. Soil moisture 
estimates in the mountains are generally near normal, with the 
extreme headwaters showing values in the 90th percentile or greater. 

The Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) model does not indicate a 
greater than 50 percent chance of flooding at any forecast point.  
The table below contains a summary of some potential maximum stages
from the model output.

            Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
               As of Tuesday: March 4, 2014
                 March 4 - Jul 1 50% Exceedence
						    Weekly
      
	     Flood         50% exceedence    	50% exceedence
  Station  Stage(ft)     Maximum Stage (ft)     Maximum Stage (ft)
------------------------------------------------------------------
 Leadville     9.0		  7.4		       7.2
 Salida        8.0		  4.6		       4.5
 Wellsville    9.0		  6.2		       5.9
 Parkdale      9.0		  5.3		       4.9
 Canon City   10.0		  8.2		       7.8
 Portland      9.0		  5.0		       4.6
 Pueblo        8.0		  6.8		       6.1


The Southeastern Plains

The potential for flood conditions will be below normal this spring.
Normal conditions for southeastern Colorado reflect a low probability
of flooding.

Visible satellite images and estimates from the National Operational
Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC) indicate only a light 
snowpack in the plains of southeast Colorado. The current plains 
snowpack is not expected to be hydrologically significant, with 
regard to spring flooding. According to the CPC soil moisture 
estimates, the plains of the Arkansas Basin have not begun to show 
the full effect of the drought.  Soil moisture is currently 
considered normal, with values between the 30th and 70th percentiles.
A small area along the New Mexico border has slipped down into the 
20th to 30th percentile range.

The mainstem of the Arkansas River is generally flowing at near-
normal to below-normal levels. Most of the tributary rivers and
creeks below Pueblo Reservoir are flowing at below-normal to much 
below-normal levels. Fountain Creek is flowing at near-normal 
levels. At the end of February, reservoirs affecting the Arkansas
River below Pueblo (Meredith, Trinidad, and John Martin) were, on
average, at 32 percent of capacity.  This represents 43 percent-of-
average storage and 108 percent of last year's storage.
 
The ESP model does not indicate any probabilities of flooding
greater than 50 percent. The table below shows the probability of
flooding during the next 120 days at four forecast points in the 
plains of southeast Colorado.

             Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
               As of Tuesday: March 4, 2014

Fcst Point    % Probability    % Probability      % Probability
Station      Minor Flooding  Moderate Flooding     Major Flooding
ID
ARCC2          Not Expected     Not Expected      Not Expected
LXHC2             33                  7                  5
LAPC2             14                  6                  4
LMAC2              3                  2                  1

Precipitation during the last 90 days has been mostly less than 75
percent-of-average in these areas. Precipitation totals worsen to the 
southeast toward an area that has received less than 25 percent-of- 
average precipitation.

Drought related conditions continue to affect the plains of 
southeastern Colorado but the intensity has lessened somewhat 
since last year. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor of February 25,
the Arkansas River plains of Colorado are currently experiencing 
Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions that worsen to an area of Exceptional 
Drought (D4) centered near the city of La Junta.  The CPC Drought 
Outlook of February 20 indicates these conditions should persist or 
intensify over the next three months. 

 


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		NEW MEXICO -- CANADIAN RIVER BASIN

The potential for spring flooding for northeastern New Mexico is
below normal. Normal conditions in northeast New Mexico reflect a 
low probability of flooding. Flooding in New Mexico is generally 
driven by rapid snowmelt runoff or high-intensity rainfall. Current
conditions reflect the on-going drought that has been affecting the
region for the last several years. Precipitation in September 
provided some much needed relief but dry conditions have returned and
continue to dominate the region.

The Sangre de Cristo Mountains mark the headwaters of the Canadian
River in New Mexico. These mountains have experienced about 80
percent-of-average precipitation this water year.  They have
accumulated 57 percent-of-average snowpack. (A more detailed table
is included below.) The table below is somewhat deceiving however.
The stations in the Canadian River drainage in New Mexico have the 
lowest values in the Sangre de Cristos.  Note the precipitation at
Gallegos (64%), North Costilla (12%), and Tolby (44%).  The most
recent basin-wide snowpack report from the Natural Resource 
Conservation Service (NRCS) indicates the Canadian River basin
snow-water equivalent at 26 percent of the historical median. 
 
          S N O W  -  P R E C I P I T A T I O N    U P D A T E
              Based on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites
                    As of Monday: March 3, 2014
------------------------------------------------------------------
BASIN             ELEV. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT  TOTAL PRECIPITATION 
Data Site Name    (Ft)                   %                     %
                       Current Median Median Current Median Median
------------------------------------------------------------------
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAIN RANGE BASINS

 CULEBRA #2      10500   10.2    10.6    96     8.8    10.2    86
 GALLEGOS PEAK    9800    6.4    10.0    64    10.2    11.6    88
 NORTH COSTILLA  10600    0.7     6.0    12     7.7    10.1    76
 RED RVR PASS #2  9850    1.5     7.0    22     6.8     8.0    85
 TOLBY           10180    3.1     7.1    44     7.1    10.3    69
 TRINCHERA       10860    8.1     8.1   100     8.5     9.1    93
 WESNER SPGS     11120    7.7    12.4    62     9.7    14.8    66
                                       -----                 -----
       Basin wide percent-of-average     57                    80

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Seasonal Outlooks for 
northeastern New Mexico indicate there are increased chances 
(33%-40%) of above-normal temperatures. The outlooks also indicate 
equal chances of above-normal, below-normal, and near-normal 
precipitation in the mountains and plains of northeast New Mexico.

Visible satellite imagery and snow cover models from National 
Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC) show minimal 
snowpack in the plains of northeast New Mexico. Soils in the area 
have retained some of the moisture they received during the rain
events in September. Soil moisture in northeastern New Mexico is near 
normal at this time, with estimates between the 30th and 70th 
percentiles.  Soil moisture in the mountains is even better and 
remains above the 85th percentile in spite of the ongoing drought.

Most stream gages on the Canadian River and its tributaries are 
affected by ice at this time.  A generalized statement of current
streamflow is, therefore, difficult to make. However, the Canadian
River at Sanchez is currently much below normal (<10th percentile) 
while further downstream, the Canadian River at Logan is showing 
near-normal discharge. At the end of February, the contents of 
Conchas Reservoir constituted 36 percent of the reservoir capacity
and 46 percent-of-average contents at this date. Contents of Eagle 
Nest Reservoir were at 68 percent of capacity and 71 percent of
last year.
 
Water-year-to-date (October 1 to present) precipitation is below- 
average across northeastern New Mexico. The area is dominated by 
widespread water-year totals less than 50 percent-of-average.  
Precipitation totals diminish toward the east into a large area 
that has received less than 25 percent-of-average precipitation.

The U.S. Drought Monitor of February 25 indicates that Severe (D2) 
to Exceptional (D3) drought conditions dominate the Canadian River 
headwaters. The CPC's US Seasonal Drought Outlook of February 20 
calls for drought conditions to persist or intensify over the next 
three months.

A summary of some potential maximum stages from the ESP model output
are presented in the table below.

 
                 New Mexico Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
                    As of Tuesday: March 4, 2014
                      March 4 - Jul 1 50% Exceedence

                                                           Weekly          
                      Flood	 50% exceedence      50% exceedence
  Station            Stage(ft)  Maximum Stage (ft)  Maximum Stage(ft)
---------------------------------------------------------------------

 
Vermejo R @Dawson      9.0           4.4                 3.6
Cimarron R @Cimarron   5.0           1.5                 0.5
Mora R @Golondrinas    5.5           1.6                 1.3
 

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   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
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   *******************************************************


			SOUTHERN KANSAS

The potential for flood conditions in southern Kansas will range from
near normal in the southeast to below normal in the west.  Most 
flooding in Kansas is directly related to specific precipitation 
events. Most hydrologically relevant conditions in southern Kansas 
reflect the ongoing drought.

Rainfall during the last 90 days has generally been low across
southern Kansas. A small area in southwest and south-central Kansas
has received above average precipitation, with isolated values in 
excess of 125 percent of average. However the precipitation totals
quickly diminish relative to average toward the east and the west.  
Both the southwest and southeast corners of the state have received 
less than 50 percent-of-average precipitation in the last 
three months. 

Soil moisture conditions in southern Kansas are generally near normal
with estimates between the 30th and 70th percentiles. A small area in 
the extreme southeast corner of the state is estimated to be slightly
below normal, with values in between the 20th and 30th percentile.   

Streamflows in western Kansas are generally much below normal, with 
discharges below the 10th percentile. The southeastern corner is also
below normal but not to the same extreme as the west.  Discharges in 
the southeast are below normal, with values between the 10th and 25th
percentiles. An area in eastern south-central Kansas is the only one
experiencing near-normal streamflow, with discharges between the 25th
and 75th percentiles. However, most of those values are in the lower 
end of that range and reflect the effects of the ongoing drought.  

Reservoir storage in southern Kansas is slightly below design 
conditions. U.S. Corps of Engineers data indicate that Corps 
reservoirs currently have an average of 101 percent of their flood 
control storage available.

The Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) Seasonal Outlook (MAR-APR-MAY)
calls for equal chances of above-normal, below-normal, and 
near-normal temperatures and precipitation across southern Kansas. 

The U.S. Drought Monitor of February 25 indicates Abnormally 
Dry (D0) to Extreme Drought (D3) conditions dominate southern 
Kansas at this time. Southwest Kansas is the driest area, with 
widespread Severe (D1) drought conditions dominating the area and
worsening to Extreme (D3) drought in the southwest corner of the 
state. The eastern half of southern Kansas is dominated by Abnormally
Dry (D0) conditions that worsen to Moderate (D1) drought along the 
border, with Oklahoma. The US Seasonal Drought Outlook of February 
20 indicates the drought in western Kansas should see some 
improvement except in the southwest corner of the state where 
conditions are expected to worsen. The Outlook indicates drought 
conditions in southeastern Kansas should not develop or intensify. 

The table below displays the probability of flooding for selected
Dodge City forecast points. Current model output indicates that 
chances of minor flooding in western Kansas are low (< 15%).

                   Select Points in Western Kansas
               Kansas Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
                   As of Tuesday: March 4, 2014

Fcst. Point	% Probability	   % Probability      % Probability
Station	        Minor Flooding    Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding
ID
COOK1                 6                 4             Not Expected
BETK1                 3           Not Expected        Not Expected
ENWK1                12                 3             Not Expected
FRGO2                 7                 4             Not Expected
RCNK1                 4                 3                  2
ZENK1                 9                 8             Not Expected
DDCK1                 2           Not Expected        Not Expected



The table below presents some south-central and southeast Kansas
forecast points where the ESP model indicates a greater than 15 
percent chance of minor flooding.  These are not extreme conditions 
and do not reflect an above-normal potential for flooding.

        Select Points in South-central and Southeast Kansas
               Kansas Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
                As of Tuesday: March 4, 2014

Fcst. Point	% Probability	   % Probability      % Probability
Station         Minor Flooding    Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding
ID
AGAK1               16                  4             Not Expected
AGSK1               18                  8                  2                
ALMK1               17                 14                  2
ARCK1               28                  9                  2
ARKK1               18                  8             Not Expected
ATOK1               22                  5             Not Expected
CBNK1               46            Not Expected        Not Expected
CNUK1               25                 12             Not Expected
CFVK1               20                  8             Not Expected
CNUK1               32                 17             Not Expected
COWK1               20            Not Expected        Not Expected
CTWK1               24                 15             Not Expected
EDWK1               19                 11                  6
EREK1               37                 32                  19
FLRK1               31            Not Expected        Not Expected
FRNK1               31                  8             Not Expected
IDPK1               40            Not Expected        Not Expected
IOLK1               18            Not Expected        Not Expected 
MDKK1               15                  6             Not Expected
MULK1               17                  5             Not Expected
OSWK1               47                 33                  9
OXFK1               23                 11                  3
PPFK1               48                 40             Not Expected
PLYK1               30                 15             Not Expected
TOWK1               17                 11             Not Expected
WFDK1               29                 17                  6
EMPK1               33                 11             Not Expected
EPRK1               21                 19             Not Expected
NEOK1               38                 32             Not Expected 

   *******************************************************
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   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
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			SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
			
The potential for flood conditions in southwestern Missouri will be
near normal this spring. Most flooding in southwest Missouri is
related to specific rainfall events.  Therefore, current conditions
do not necessarily indicate an increased or decreased risk of spring
flooding.

Precipitation during the last 90 days has been below average, with 
widespread estimates of less than 75 percent-of-average. Estimates
decrease to less than 50 percent-of-average near the border with
Kansas.

The Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) Seasonal Outlook (MAR-APR-MAY)
calls for equal chances of above-normal, below-normal, and 
near-normal temperatures and precipitation across southwestern 
Missouri.

Soil moisture in southwestern Missouri is currently below normal, 
with estimates between the 30th to 20th percentiles. Streamflow in 
that part of the state is below normal for this time of year.

The U.S. Drought Monitor of February 25 indicates most of 
southwestern Missouri experiencing Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions. 
CPC's US Seasonal Drought Outlook of February 20 indicates little
potential for the development or intensification of drought 
conditions.

The table below presents some southwestern Missouri forecast points 
where the ESP model indicated a greater than 10 percent chance of 
minor flooding.  These are not extreme conditions and do not reflect 
an above-normal potential for flooding.

                 Select Points in Southwest Missouri
                    Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
                   As of Tuesday: March 4, 2014

Fcst. Point	% Probability	   % Probability      % Probability 
Station		Minor Flooding	  Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding
ID
CHTM7               24                 27             Not Expected
TIFM7               27                  7             Not Expected
WCOM7               26            Not Expected        Not Expected
BXTK1               20                 12                    2

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   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
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				ARKANSAS 
 
The potential for flood conditions in western Arkansas will be near
normal this spring. Flooding in western Arkansas usually occurs in
response to specific precipitation events.  However, the Arkansas
River may flood in response to more widespread upstream conditions.
There are currently no indications of extreme hydrologic conditions
to alter the flood potential of the area.

Precipitation totals during the last 90 days for western Arkansas 
have generally been below average. The center of the state has 
received near-average amounts of precipitation but the numbers 
diminish towards the west.  Most areas along the Oklahoma border have
received less 75 percent-of-average precipitation during the last 
three months.

Soil moisture in northwest Arkansas generally reflects the 
precipitation over the last three months.  In the northwest corner of 
the state, soil moisture is relatively low, with estimates between 
the 30th and 10th percentiles.  Soils moisture levels in the central 
portions of the state are near normal, with estimates between the 
30th and 70th percentiles.  Soil moisture diminishes slightly to the 
southwest and estimates there are between the 30th and 20th 
percentiles. 

Corps of Engineers projects in southwestern Arkansas are at levels 
approximating design conditions. They have approximately 99 percent 
of their flood control capacity available at this time. Streamflows 
in Arkansas are also reflective of the recent precipitation.  In the
northwestern part of Arkansas, streamflows are below normal to much-
below normal, with discharges less than the 10th percentile.  Streams 
in west-central and southwest Arkansas are flowing at near-normal 
levels, with isolated stations reporting below-normal discharges below
25 percent of normal. 

The Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) Seasonal Outlook (MAR-APR-MAY)
calls for equal chances of above-normal, below-normal, and near-
normal temperatures and precipitation across western and central 
Arkansas.

The U.S. Drought Monitor of February 25 indicates northwestern 
Arkansas is  experiencing Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions. Central
and southwestern Arkansas are currently free of drought related 
conditions. CPC's Drought Outlook of February 20 calls for no 
development or intensification of drought conditions over the next 
three months.

 

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   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
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				OKLAHOMA 
				
The potential for flood conditions in Oklahoma will be normal in
eastern Oklahoma and below normal in central Oklahoma, western 
Oklahoma and the panhandle. Flooding in Oklahoma usually 
occurs in response to specific precipitation events. Many current
hydrologic indicators reflect an ongoing drought that has gripped
the southern plains for several years. Eastern Oklahoma has gotten
more relief over the last year than have the western parts of the 
state. 
 
Precipitation totals for the last 90 days are below normal to well-
below normal across most of Oklahoma.  There are widespread areas 
that have received less than 75 percent-of-average precipitation. The
relative amounts decrease towards the central and western parts of
the state, where widespread areas have received less than 50 percent-
of-average. As you approach the Texas Panhandle, there are increasing
areas that have received less than 25 percent-of-average 
precipitation. Conditions vary greatly over a small area in the 
Oklahoma Panhandle.  There is an isolated area that has received 
near-normal amounts of precipitation, but the relative values 
decrease rapidly to less than 25 percent-of-average near the border 
with Colorado. 

The Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) Seasonal Outlook (MAR-APR-MAY)
calls for equal chances of above-normal, below-normal, and  
near-normal temperatures and precipitation across all of Oklahoma.

Soil moisture across the state of Oklahoma is currently inconsistent
with the recent distribution of precipitation. Soil moisture 
estimates in the panhandle and the northwest part of the state are 
currently near normal, with estimates between the 30th and 70th 
percentiles. Eastern Oklahoma is currently drier, with soil moisture 
estimates between the 30th and 20th percentiles.  Conditions dry even
further as you move south and west.  Soil moisture estimates in the 
southwest are generally between the 30th and the 10th percentiles and
deteriorate to a minimum between the 10th and the 5th percentiles.

Streams and rivers in Oklahoma are running at below-normal to much
below-normal levels across most of Oklahoma. Exceptions occur only
in the center of the state where USGS gages indicate discharges 
between the 25th and 75th percentiles.  However, most of those 
stations indicate flows below the 50th percentile. In the northeast
part of the state, there is a widespread area of gages reporting 
below-normal flows, with values between the 10th and 25th 
percentiles. Gages on the Red River and in southern Oklahoma are 
generally showing extremely low flows, with values between the 10th 
and 1st percentiles.  

Reservoir storage in Oklahoma currently varies between the structures
in the Arkansas River system and those in the Red River system.  In 
the aggregate, the reservoirs in Oklahoma have 109 percent of their 
flood control storage available at this time.  Available capacity in 
the Arkansas system is approximately 104 percent of designed flood 
control storage.  Available capacity in the Red River system is 
approximately 117 percent of design flood control storage. 
 
It was hoped that last year's rains would mark the end of the ongoing
drought in Oklahoma.  It was not to be. The rains provided some
relief but the dry autumn and winter have pushed Oklahoma back into
a significant drought. The U.S. Drought Monitor of February 25 
indicates that Oklahoma is experiencing Abnormally Dry (D0) to 
Exceptional Drought (D4) conditions. Abnormally Dry conditions 
currently dominate eastern Oklahoma and worsen to Moderate 
Drought (D2) somewhere near the middle of the state. Conditions 
continue to worsen as you move west and reach a worst case, with 
Exceptional Drought (D4) in the southwest corner of the state. 
Conditions in the panhandle range from Severe Drought (D2) to Extreme
Drought (D3).

CPC's Seasonal Drought Outlook of February 20 calls for no 
development or intensification of drought conditions in eastern 
Oklahoma. In western Oklahoma and the panhandle, the Outlook calls 
for drought conditions to persist or intensify.  
 

   *******************************************************
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   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
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   *******************************************************
 
				TEXAS 
 
The potential for flood conditions in north Texas and the Texas
Panhandle will be below normal this spring. Flooding in North Texas 
usually occurs in response to specific precipitation events, however 
the on-going drought has shifted hydrologic conditions far enough 
from the norm, that a below-normal flood outlook seems warranted.

Precipitation totals for the last 90 days in the Red River basin vary
from below average to significantly below-average.  Values less than
75 percent-of-average precipitation dominate the region and there are
isolated areas with values less than 50 percent-of-average. 
Precipitation estimates in the panhandle are almost uniformly less 
than 75 percent-of-average and worsen to a minimum estimate of less 
than 5 percent-of-average. 

Streamflows in the Red River valley are showing the effects of the 
long-term drought.  Discharges there are generally less than 10 
percent-of-average for this time of year. Flows in the panhandle are
extremely varied and range from above normal to well below normal. 

The Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) Seasonal Outlook for the next 
three months (MAR-APR-MAY) calls for equal chances of above-normal, 
below-normal, and near-normal temperatures throughout most of North 
Texas and the panhandle. There is a small area in the western and 
southern panhandles where the Outlook indicates increased chances 
(33%-40%) of above-normal temperatures. The Outlook also indicates 
there are equal chances of above-normal, below-normal, and near-
normal precipitation over the next three months.  
 
Soil moisture conditions at the end of January are generally 
consistent across North Texas and the panhandle.  Soil moisture is 
generally low, with conditions between the 30th and 10th percentiles 
of historical conditions. Soil moisture declines westward into the 
panhandle.  Current conditions there reflect less than the 10th 
percentile of historical conditions. 

The U.S. Drought Monitor of February 25 shows a range of conditions
across North Texas and the panhandle. Conditions across the Red River
valley run from Abnormally Dry (D0) in the east and worsen to Extreme
Drought (D3) and then Exceptional Drought (D4) near the western 
border of Oklahoma. Conditions in the panhandle are dominated by 
Severe Drought (D2), with large areas of Extreme Drought surrounding 
isolated areas of Exceptional Drought.  The CPC US Seasonal Drought 
Outlook of February 20, indicates drought conditions across North 
Texas should persist or intensify over the next three months.
 

AJA 
 
   ******************************************************* 
   *                                                     * 
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    * 
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            * 
   *                                                     * 
   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php     * 
   *                                                     * 
   ******************************************************* 
   
   
Thanks to the USGS for streamflow condition data, the U.S. Army Corps
of Engineers for reservoir condition data, the Natural Resource
Conservation Service for SNOTEL data, and the Climate Prediction
Center for the precipitation and temperature outlooks, the soil
moisture deficits, and the Drought Outlook.

$$

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