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Water Supply Flood Potential Outlook

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Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service, ABRFC, Tulsa, Oklahoma
1517 CST, Wednesday, February 18, 2015

                          COLORADO 
                -- ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN--
		
The Rocky Mountains

The potential for flooding will be near normal this spring. Flooding
at most forecast points in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado is driven 
by rapid snowpack runoff or isolated, high-intensity rainfall.   

As measured at high altitude SNOTEL monitoring stations, the 
mountains of the Arkansas River basin have received approximately
93 percent of the median precipitation and have accumulated 85 
percent of the median snowpack this water year. A more detailed table
is included below. This water-year's precipitation is about 107 
percent of last year's. There is a sharp divide within the basin 
however. SNOTEL locations near the mainstem of the Arkansas River
indicate a snowpack near or in excess of the 30-year median (Brumley,
Fremont Pass, and Porphyry Creek).  Stations in the Purgatoire River,
Cucharas River and Huerfano River basins (Apishapa, Whiskey Creek and
South Colony) are indicating a snowpack well below the median. At the
end of January, mountain reservoirs above Pueblo were, on average, 
at 81 percent of capacity.  This represents 111 percent of average 
storage and 136 percent of last year's storage. Reservoirs below
Pueblo are at 31 percent of capacity, 41 percent of last year's
storage, and 132 percent of the long-term average. 


    S N O W  -  P R E C I P I T A T I O N    U P D A T E
 
        Based on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites
              As of TUESDAY: February 17, 2015 
-------------------------------------------------------------------
BASIN             ELEV. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT   TOTAL PRECIPITATION
Data Site Name   (Ft)                      %                      %  
                       Current  Median  Med.  Current  Median  Med
-------------------------------------------------------------------

ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN

APISHAPA         10000     0.9   5.4      17    7.1     8.4      85
BRUMLEY          10600     9.1   6.9     132    8.9     9.2      97 
FREMONT PASS     11400    12.8  10.5     122   12.7    10.8     118 
PORPHYRY CREEK   10760    10.6  10.9      97   10.0    10.6      94 
SOUTH COLONY     10800     8.4  13.5      62   11.5    14.7      78 
WHISKEY CK       10220     5.8   7.3      79    9.5    11.0      86
                                        -----                  -----
         Basin wide percent of average    85                     93 
	  
Units = inches for the Current and Average Snow Water Equivalent 
	and Total Precipitation values

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) outlooks for winter and early 
spring (FEB-MAR-APR)indicate increased chances (33%-40%) of below
normal temperatures in southeastern Colorado. Those chances increase 
slightly (40%-50%) towards the southeastern corner of the state. CPC 
outlooks also call for significantly increased chances (40%-50%) of 
above-normal precipitation during the same period.     

Current soil moisture estimates from the CPC represent near-normal 
conditions in the mountain headwaters of the Arkansas River. Soil 
moisture estimates for the end of January were between the 30th and 
70th percentiles throughout southeastern Colorado.

The ESP model does not indicate a greater than 50 percent chance of 
flooding at any forecast point.  The table below contains a summary 
of the most probable maximum stages from the model output.    

            Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
              As of Tuesday: February 17, 2015
               Feb 17 - May 18 50% Exceedence
						    Weekly                  
	     Flood         50% exceedence    	50% exceedence 
  Station  Stage(ft)     Maximum Stage (ft)     Maximum Stage (ft)
------------------------------------------------------------------
 Leadville     9.0                6.7                  6.4
 Salida        8.0                4.4                  4.2
 Wellsville    9.0                5.8                  5.6
 Parkdale      9.0                4.9                  4.7
 Canon City   10.0                7.8                  7.6
 Portland      9.0                4.5                  4.2
 Pueblo        8.0                6.5                  6.1

The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates that severe drought conditions 
currently dominate the southeastern corner of Colorado. However, the
drought conditions are mostly in the plains. The mountain headwaters 
of the Arkansas River system are relatively free of drought at this
time.  That is except for the mountains in extreme southern Colorado 
along the New Mexico border. The mountains there are experiencing 
abnormally dry conditions (D-0) that blend into Moderate Drought 
conditions (D-1). The US Seasonal Drought Outlook is noncommittal on
the development of drought conditions in southeastern Colorado. The
headwaters of the Arkansas system are expected to remain drought free.
The plains of southeastern Colorado are harder to pin down and the 
outlook puts the boundary between drought intensification and drought 
relief near the Colorado-Kansas border. 

The Southeastern Plains

The potential for flood conditions will be below normal this spring. 
Normal conditions for southeastern Colorado reflect a low probability 
of flooding. 

Current Climate Prediction Center (CPC) soil moisture estimates for 
the area indicate normal conditions in southeastern Colorado.  Soil 
moisture values in the 30th to the 70th percentile dominate that part 
of the state. 

The Arkansas River is generally flowing at extremely low levels below
Pueblo Reservoir. Fountain Creek is flowing at below normal to 
near-normal levels.  
 
The ESP model does not indicate any probabilities of flooding greater 
than 50 percent. The table below shows the probability of flooding 
during the next 120 days at four forecast points. 

             Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
               As of Tuesday: February 17, 2015

Fcst Point    % Probability    % Probability      % Probability 
Station	    Minor Flooding  Moderate Flooding	Major Flooding
ID
ARCC2          Not Expected     Not Expected      Not Expected
LXHC2             50                 28                  7
LAPC2             10                  3                  2
LMAC2          Not Expected     Not Expected     Not Expected

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor the plains of southeastern 
Colorado are experiencing extreme to exceptional drought conditions. 
The US Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for persistent or worsening 
drought conditions through April.

   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
   *                                                     *
   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php     *
   *                                                     *
   *******************************************************


			SOUTHERN KANSAS

The potential for flood conditions in southern Kansas will be 
near-normal this spring. Most flooding in Kansas is directly related 
to specific precipitation events. Kansas has shown some recovery from
the long-term drought that affected the southern plains for most of 
2010 through 2014. However, most hydrologically relevant conditions 
in southern Kansas continue to reflect the effects of that drought.

Precipitation during the last 90 days has been well-below average 
in southeastern Kansas but has been considerably above average in the
southwest. The driest conditions (relative to the average) are in 
southeastern Kansas with a large area that has received less than 
50 percent of average rainfall.  Rainfall relative to the average 
improves as you move west until there is a large area in southwestern
Kansas that has received 150-200 percent of average rainfall. 
Unfortunately, large areas of west-central Kansas, along the Arkansas
River did not receive those recent rains and remain well below 
average for the last 90 days. 

According to the Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) estimates, soil 
moisture across southern Kansas is consistently between the 30th
and 70th percentiles. This represents near-normal conditions.  Only
in extreme south central Kansas does the CPC data indicate below- 
normal conditions with values between the 20th and 30th percentiles.  

Streamflows in southern Kansas are well-below normal throughout 
southwest Kansas. In southeast Kansas, stream discharges are 
approaching normal conditions but are consistently to the low side
of the long-term median. 

Reservoir storage in southern Kansas is close to approximating
design conditions. However, low storage volumes persist in the 
Neosho, Cottonwood, and Verdigris River systems. U.S. Corps of 
Engineers data indicate that Corps  reservoirs in southern Kansas 
currently have an average of 107 percent of their flood-control 
storage available at this time. 

Through the late winter and early spring months (FEB-MAR-APR), the 
CPC's outlooks for southern Kansas call for increased chances 
(33%-40%) of below-normal temperatures across much of southern 
Kansas.  The chances of below-normal temperatures increase (40%-50%)
towards the southwest corner of the state. The precipitation outlook
for the same period splits southern Kansas almost evenly from east to
west.  The western half of the state has increased chances (33%-40%) 
of below-normal precipitation while the eastern half has equal 
chances (33%) of above-normal, below-normal, and near-normal 
precipitation. 

The U.S. Drought Monitor currently indicates abnormally dry to 
extreme drought conditions dominating southern Kansas. Southeast 
Kansas is almost entirely classified as abnormally dry (D-0).  
Conditions worsen to the west.  Moderate (D-1) to severe (D-2) 
drought dominates almost all of southwest Kansas and worsens to 
extreme drought towards the border with the Oklahoma Panhandle. 
The CPC's US Seasonal Drought Outlook for the next three months calls
for drought conditions the southwest to persist or intensify.

The table below indicates the probability of flooding for selected 
western Kansas forecast points where the model indicates a greater 
than five percent chance of flooding. Current model output indicates
that chances of minor flooding in western Kansas are low (< 12%). 
However, these low probabilities do not reflect extreme conditions and
indicate a near-normal chance of flooding.

                   Select Points in Western Kansas
               Kansas Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
                As of Tuesday: February 17, 2015

Fcst. Point	% Probability	   % Probability      % Probability 
Station		Minor Flooding	  Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding
ID
ENWK1                12                  3            Not Expected


The table below presents some south-central and southeast Kansas 
forecast points where the ESP model indicated a greater than 10% 
chance of minor flooding.  These are not extreme conditions and in 
the long term do not reflect an above-normal potential for flooding.

        Select Points in South-central and Southeast Kansas
               Kansas Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
                As of Tuesday: February 17, 2015

Fcst. Point	% Probability	   % Probability      % Probability 
Station		Minor Flooding	  Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding
ID
ALMK1               16                 10             Not Expected
ARCK1               19                  3             Not Expected
ARKK1               10                  3             Not Expected
ATOK1               21                  4             Not Expected
CBNK1               47            Not Expected        Not Expected
CFVK1               17                  6             Not Expected
CNUK1               33                 18             Not Expected
CTWK1               20                 11             Not Expected
EREK1               33                 29                 19
FLRK1               22                  3             Not Expected
FRNK1               17                  6             Not Expected
HTDK1               10                  6             Not Expected
IDPK1               26            Not Expected        Not Expected 
IOLK1               18                  1             Not Expected 
MDKK1               20                  6             Not Expected 
MULK1               12                  3             Not Expected
OSWK1               50                 39                  7
OXFK1               17                  3                  2
PPFK1               47                 41             Not Expected
PLYK1               20                 11             Not Expected
SEDK1               11                  7                  4
WFDK1               16                 12                  4
EMPK1               21                 14             Not Expected
EPRK1               15                 14             Not Expected
LRYK1               11                 11             Not Expected
NEOK1               22                 21             Not Expected 
 
   *******************************************************
   *                                                     *
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *
   *                                                     *
   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php     *
   *                                                     *
   *******************************************************

			SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
			
The potential for flood conditions in southwest Missouri will be 
near normal this spring. Most flooding in this area is related to 
specific rainfall events.  Therefore, current conditions do not 
necessarily indicate an increased or decreased risk of spring 
flooding. 

Rainfall during the last 90 days has been from 50 to 75 percent of 
average.  Soil moisture in southwestern Missouri is currently near
normal (30-70th percentile). Stream flow in that part of the state 
is below-normal. 

Through the late winter and early spring months (FEB-MAR-APR), the 
Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) outlooks for southwestern 
Missouri mostly call for equal chances (33%) of above-normal, 
below-normal, or near-normal temperatures.  The outlooks also 
indicate equal chances of above-normal, normal, and below-normal 
precipitation for the same period.
 		
The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates southwestern Missouri is 
experiencing abnormally dry conditions but is not in drought.
The CPC's US Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for the area to remain 
free of drought related conditions for the next three months.

The table below presents some southwestern Missouri forecast points 
where the ESP model indicated a greater than 10% chance of minor 
flooding.  These are not extreme conditions and do not reflect an 
above-normal potential for flooding.

                 Select Points in Southwest Missouri
                    Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
                   As of Tuesday: February 17, 2015

Fcst. Point	% Probability	   % Probability      % Probability 
Station		Minor Flooding	  Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding
ID
CHTM7               23                 11             Not Expected
TIFM7               29                  8                    4
WCOM7               26            Not Expected        Not Expected
BXTK1               23                 12                    3

   ******************************************************* 
   *                                                     * 
   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    * 
   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            * 
   *                                                     * 
   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php     * 
   *                                                     * 
   ******************************************************* 
 
$$

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