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TTAA00 KTUA DDHHMM



Flood Potential Outlook

National Weather Service, ABRFC, Tulsa, Oklahoma

408 PM CST, Thursday, March 6, 2008



			COLORADO 

		-- ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN--

		

The Rocky Mountains



The potential for flood conditions will be above normal this spring. 

Flooding at most forecast points in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado 

is driven by rapid snowpack runoff or isolated, high-intensity 

rainfall. The large snowpack points toward wetter than average 

hydrologic conditions, this is reflected in the increased likelihood 

of flooding shown in the ESP model.   



The mountains of the Arkansas River basin have experienced 

approximately 136 percent of average precipitation and have 

accumulated 161 percent of average snowpack this water year (a more 

detailed table is included below).  This water-year's precipitation, 

to date, is about 155 percent of last year's. At the end of January, 

average contents of the mountain reservoirs in the Arkansas River 

basin were 39 percent of capacity.  This represents 105 percent of 

average storage and 117 percent of last year's storage.





     S N O W  -  P R E C I P I T A T I O N    U P D A T E

 

         Based on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites

               As of WEDNESDAY: March 5, 2008 

--------------------------------------------------------------------

BASIN              ELEV. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT   TOTAL PRECIPITATION

Data Site Name    (Ft)                      %                      %  

                        Current  Average  Avg  Current  Average  Avg

--------------------------------------------------------------------



ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN



 APISHAPA         10000    14.8   6.6     224   12.2     9.6     127 

 BRUMLEY          10600    12.6   8.1     156   15.4    10.9     141 

 FREMONT PASS     11400    17.5  13.3     132   16.8    12.7     132 

 PORPHYRY CREEK   10760    20.6  13.1     157   17.8    12.4     144 

 SOUTH COLONY     10800    27.3  15.1     181   28.5    19.4     147 

 WHISKEY CK       10220    11.5   8.5     135   14.7    12.6     117 

                                         -----                  -----

          Basin wide percent of average   161                    136 



Units = inches for the Current and Average Snow Water Equivalent and 

	  Total Precipitation values





The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates the mountains of southeastern 

Colorado are not experiencing any drought conditions.  Through the 

spring months (MAR-APR-MAY), the Climate Prediction Center outlooks 

indicate increased chances (40-50%) of experiencing above-normal 

temperatures and increased chances (33-40%) of below-normal 

precipitation for the same period. 



Current conditions represent slightly wetter than normal conditions 

above Pueblo and Trinidad Reservoirs.  The ESP model indicates a 

greater than 50 percent chance of flooding at only one forecast 

point (Canon City).  The table below contains a summary of the 

most probable maximum stages from the model output.    



                  Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

                    As of Wednesday: March 5, 2008

                             March 5 - July 2, 2008

						     Weekly

		Flood	       50% exceedance    50% exceedance 

  Station	Stage(ft)   Maximum Stage (ft)  Maximum Stage (ft)

------------------------------------------------------------------

 Leadville 	5.0          	4.2                 3.9

 Salida		9.0      	6.5                 6.0

 Wellsville	9.0      	7.4                 7.0

 Parkdale	9.0      	7.3                 6.5

 Canon City	9.0      	9.7                 9.2

 Portland	9.0      	6.8                 6.2

 Pueblo		8.0      	6.8                 6.3







The Southeastern Plains



The potential for flood conditions will be above normal this spring. 

Normal conditions for southeastern Colorado reflect a low probability 

of flooding. Conditions in the plains of southeast Colorado have not 

changed significantly since the flood outlook issued February 21, 

2008.  However, the snowpack in the mountains has increased and 

elevated the likelihood of flooding at some of the downstream 

forecast points on the plains.



There is light snowpack east of the Rocky Mountains. Soil moisture 

in most of southeast Colorado is normal with values between the 30th 

and 70th percentiles. In the extreme southeast corner of Colorado 

soil moisture levels are below normal (20-30th percentiles). 

 

Rainfall for the last 90 days has been normal to slightly above 

normal north of the Arkansas River and normal to below normal in the 

southeastern corner of Colorado. The Arkansas River is generally 

flowing at normal levels while Fountain Creek is flowing at normal 

to above-normal levels.  



The ESP model indicates a greater than 50 percent chance of flooding 

at only one forecast point (La Junta).  The table below shows the 

probability of flooding during the next 120 days at 4 forecast points. 



               Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

                As of Wednesday: March 5, 2008



Fcst. Point % Probability   % Probability	% Probability 

Station	    Minor Flooding  Moderate Flooding	Major Flooding

ID

ARCC2		Not Expected	Not Expected	Not Expected

LXHC2		67		12		 6

LAPC2		17		 7		 6		

LMAC2		 8		 4		 3



The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates drought conditions in the plains of 

southeastern Colorado range from abnormally dry to moderate drought. 

According to the Climate Prediction Center's U.S. Seasonal Drought 

Outlook, drought conditions along the Colorado-Kansas-Oklahoma 

tri-state border region are expected to persist or intensify over the 

next 2 months.





   *******************************************************

   *                                                     *

   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *

   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *

   *                                                     *

   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php     *

   *                                                     *

   *******************************************************







		NEW MEXICO -- CANADIAN RIVER BASIN 

 

The spring flood potential outlook for northeastern New Mexico 

remains normal. Flooding in New Mexico is generally driven by rapid

snowmelt runoff or high-intensity rainfall.  While mountain snowpack 

points toward wetter than average hydrologic conditions, these do not 

necessarily indicate an increased, long-term potential for spring 

flooding.  There are currently no indications of extreme hydrologic 

conditions to alter the flood potential of the area.



The Sangre De Cristo Mountains mark the headwaters of the Canadian 

River in New Mexico. Those mountains have experienced about 123 

percent of average precipitation this water year.  They have 

accumulated 151 percent-of-average snowpack (a more detailed 

table is included below). Ninety-day precipitation totals in the 

plains are below normal ranging from from 25-75 percent of 

average.  The local minimum is less than 25 percent of average near 

Capulin.   

 

          S N O W  -  P R E C I P I T A T I O N    U P D A T E  

              Based on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites 

                    As of WEDNESDAY: March 6, 2008  

------------------------------------------------------------------ 

BASIN             ELEV. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT  TOTAL PRECIPITATION 

Data Site Name    (Ft)                    %                      %   

                       Current  Average Avg  Current  Average  Avg 

------------------------------------------------------------------ 

SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAIN RANGE BASINS



 CULEBRA #2     10500    14.8    10.7   138     10.6    10.8    98 

 ELK CABIN       8210     4.1     3.9   105      8.3     8.5    98 

 GALLEGOS PEAK   9800    12.4     9.9   125     14.1    11.7   121 

 NORTH COSTILLA 10600    11.0     4.8   229     14.4     9.9   145 

 RED RIVER PASS #2 9850  11.8     6.8   174     10.8     8.1   133 

 TOLBY          10180    10.7     7.1   151     13.1    10.1   130 

 TRINCHERA      10860    13.2     8.3   159     13.1     9.3   141 

 WESNER SPGS    11120    16.9    13.1   129     17.8    15.2   117 

                                       -----                 -----

       Basin wide percent of average    151                    123 





Soil moisture in northeastern New Mexico is normal in the mountains.

It is near normal in the plains along the mountains and decreases to

a local minimum in the 10-20th percentile near the Texas border. The 

Canadian River and its headwaters are flowing at above-normal levels

(75th percentile) in the mountains.  Streamflow in the plains is 

well-below normal with streamflows below the 25th percentile.  

At the end of February, Conchas Reservoir contents were 33 percent 

of conservation pool. 

 

Through the spring (MAR-APR-MAY), the Climate Prediction Center is 

indicating increased chances (40-50%) of above-normal temperatures. 

They also indicate an increased chance (33-40%) of below-normal 

precipitation over that period.      



The U.S. Drought monitor indicates the plains of northeast New 

Mexico are abnormally dry with areas of moderate drought near the

Texas-Oklahoma border.  The mountains are not experiencing drought

conditions at this time. The Climate Prediction Center's US Seasonal 

Drought Outlook calls for drought conditions in the plains to develop

or intensify over the next two months.  The outlook calls for no 

changes in drought related conditions in the mountains.

 

   

 The table below contains a summary of the most probable maximum 

stages from the ESP model output.

 

		New Mexico Ensemble Streamflow Prediction 

		     As of Wednesday: March 5, 2008 

                        Mar8-Jul5 50% Exceedance              

                                                    Maximum weekly  

 Station                 Maximum Stage (ft)            Stage (ft) 

------------------------------------------------------------------ 

 Vermejo Riv @ Dawson          4.5                      3.7 

 Cimarron Riv @ Cimarron       1.4                      1.0 

 Mora Riv @ Golondrinas        2.1                      2.0 

 



   *******************************************************

   *                                                     *

   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *

   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *

   *                                                     *

   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php     *

   *                                                     *

   *******************************************************







			SOUTHERN KANSAS



The potential for flood conditions in southern Kansas will be normal 

this spring. Most flooding in Kansas is directly related to specific 

precipitation events. Therefore, currently wet conditions do not 

necessarily indicate an increased potential for spring flooding. 

Conditions are not significantly different than those recorded in the 

flood outlook of February 21, 2008.



Rainfall during the last 90 days has been variable across southern 

Kansas. A local minimum of less than 50 percent of average exists in

the extreme southwest corner of the state.  South-central Kansas has

received well-above-average rainfall in that period with totals 

ranging from 125-400 percent of average. Southeast Kansas has had

normal to slightly above-normal rainfall for this period. Recent 

rains have resulted in increased streamflows in south-central and 

southeast Kansas.    



Soil moisture across southern Kansas varies in a pattern similar to

the 90-day precipitation totals.  A soil moisture minimum (<30th 

percentile) exists in the extreme southwest corner of the state.  

The remainder of the western third of southern Kansas has normal 

soil moisture.  The eastern two-thirds of southern Kansas has 

above-normal soil moisture (70th-90th percentiles) that increases 

toward the northeast and toward north-central Oklahoma.  



Streamflow percentiles increase from west to east across southern

Kansas.  In southwest Kansas, streamflows are below normal.  In 

south-central Kansas streamflows are normal to above normal.  Recent 

rains in southeastern Kansas have raised streamflows there to well-

above-normal conditions. 



Reservoir storage in southern Kansas is approximating average 

conditions.  U.S. Corps of Engineers data indicates that Corps 

projects in southern Kansas currently have an average of 93 percent 

of their flood control storage available at this time.



Through the spring months (MAR-APR-MAY), the Climate Prediction 

Center's outlook for southern Kansas calls for increased chances 

(33-40%) of experiencing above-normal temperatures. The outlook calls 

for a greater chance (40-50%) of above-normal temperatures for the 

extreme southwest corner of the state. The outlook also indicates 

increased chances (33-40%) of below-normal precipitation for the same 

period. 



The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates abnormally dry to moderate 

drought conditions exist in southwestern Kansas at this time.  These 

conditions give way to non-drought conditions as one moves from west 

to east across southern Kansas.  The Climate Prediction Center's US 

Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for drought conditions in western 

Kansas to intensify or persist for the next 2 months. CPC indicates

no change in drought related conditions in the remainder of southern

Kansas.            



The table below presents information for Dodge City forecast points 

where the model indicates a chance of flooding. Unlike last year at 

this time, there is no substantial snowpack in the plains of 

Colorado or western Kansas. Current model output indicates that 

chances of minor flooding in western Kansas are low (< 12%).  



		Select Points in Western Kansas

            Kansas Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

             As of Wednesday: March 6, 2008



Fcst. Point	% Probability	   % Probability      % Probability 

Station		Minor Flooding	  Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding

ID

COOK1		      7		 	3	      Not Expected

BETK1		      4		 	3	      Not Expected

RCNK1		      5			4		    3

ZENK1		     12			11		    9





Most flooding in south-central and southeast Kansas is also related 

to specific rainfall events.  Currently elevated  river stages and 

saturated soils caused the ESP model to show elevated probabilities 

of flooding for the eastern two-thirds of southern Kansas.  The ESP 

model reflects currently wet conditions but these short-term 

conditions do not necessarily indicate an above normal potential for 

spring flooding over the next 3 months.  If the region experiences 

average climatic conditions, river stages and soil moisture should 

return to more typical conditions as the spring unfolds.   



The table below presents some Wichita and Topeka forecast points for 

which ESP indicated a greater than 40% chance of minor flooding.  

Again, this is not an extreme condition and does not necessarily 

reflect an above-average risk of flooding over the next 3 months.



 	Select Points in South-central and Southeast Kansas

            Kansas Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

             As of Wednesday: March 6, 2008



Fcst. Point	% Probability	   % Probability      % Probability 

Station		Minor Flooding	  Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding

ID

CBNK1		      40	 Not Expected 	      Not Expected

CTWK1		      50	 	26	      Not Expected

FLRK1		      61	 	 2	      Not Expected

PLYK1		      60	 	13		    14

PPFK1		      58		43	      Not Expected

WFDK1		      45		26	      Not Expected

EMPK1		      62		36	      Not Expected

EPRK1		      43		41	      Not Expected

NEOK1		      57		12	      Not Expected







   *******************************************************

   *                                                     *

   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *

   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *

   *                                                     *

   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php     *

   *                                                     *

   *******************************************************



            



			SOUTHWEST MISSOURI

			

The potential for flood conditions in southwestern Missouri will be 

near normal this spring. Most flooding in southwest Missouri is 

related to specific rainfall events.  Therefore, currently wet 

conditions do not necessarily indicate an increased risk of spring 

flooding. Conditions are slightly wetter than those reported in the

Spring Flood Outlook of February 21st but do not constitute a 

significantly greater potential for spring flooding.



Rainfall over the last 90 days has been above average to well-above 

average across southwest Missouri. Soil moisture in southwestern 

Missouri is currently above normal (70th-90th percentile). Stream 

flow in that part of the state is well above normal. 



Through the spring months (MAR-APR-MAY), the Climate Prediction 

Center's outlook for southwestern Missouri calls for increased 

chances (33-40%) of experiencing above-normal temperatures. The 

outlook also indicates increased chances (33-40%) of below-normal 

precipitation for the same period.

 		

The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates there are no drought conditions

in southwestern Missouri at this time.  The Climate Prediction 

Center's  US Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for no changes in 

drought conditions over the next 2 months.





   *******************************************************

   *                                                     *

   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *

   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *

   *                                                     *

   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php     *

   *                                                     *

   *******************************************************





				ARKANSAS 

 

The potential for flood conditions in western Arkansas will be 

near normal this spring. Except for the mainstem of the Arkansas 

River, flooding in western Arkansas usually occurs in response to 

specific precipitation events.  The Arkansas River may flood in 

response to upstream conditions. There are currently no indications 

of extreme hydrologic conditions to alter the flood potential of the 

area.  Therefore, currently wet conditions do not necessarily 

indicate an increased potential for spring flooding. 



Ninety-day precipitation totals across western Arkansas have 

generally been average to well-above average.  Precipitation totals

increase from near average in the southwest to well-above average in 

the northwest.  There is a local maximum in excess of 300 percent of

average in the northwest corner of the state.   

 

Soil moisture across western Arkansas follows a pattern similar to 

the 90-day precipitation totals.  It is well-above normal in the 

northwest (>90th percentile), above normal in west-central Arkansas, 

and normal in the southwest part of the state. Recent

rains have generated significant stream flows across western 

Arkansas. Rivers and streams are flowing at above-normal levels in 

the southwest parts of the state and are well-above normal in the 

remainder of western Arkansas. Corps of Engineers projects in 

western Arkansas have, on average, 94 percent of their flood control 

capacity available at this time. 

 

The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting increased chances 

(33-40%) of above-normal temperatures this spring (MAR-APR-MAY).  

The outlook calls for greater chances (40-50%) of above-normal 

temperatures over the same period. The U.S. Drought Monitor shows no 

part of Arkansas is experiencing drought.  The CPC Drought Outlook 

does not indicate any change in drought related conditions this 

spring. 

 



   *******************************************************

   *                                                     *

   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *

   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *

   *                                                     *

   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php     *

   *                                                     *

   *******************************************************

 

				OKLAHOMA 

The potential for flood conditions in Oklahoma will be near normal 

this spring. Flooding in Oklahoma usually occurs in response to 

specific precipitation events. There are currently no indications of 

extreme hydrologic conditions to alter the flood potential of the 

area.  

 

For the past 90 days rainfall amounts varied greatly across 

Oklahoma.  The western panhandle alone ranged from 25-50 percent of

average precipitation in the west to above-average rainfall 

(125-200% or average) in the east. The Red River Valley received

below-normal precipitation while the remainder of the state 

got relatively normal rainfall amounts. 



Soil moisture in the extreme western panhandle is below normal 

(20-30th percentiles) for this time of year.  Soil moisture in the

remainder of the state is generally above normal to well-above 

normal for this time of year. Soil moisture in the Red River valley

and the eastern border of the Texas panhandle is near normal. 

In north-central Oklahoma, soil moisture is well-above normal with a 

local maximum exceeding the 95th percentile.



Streams and rivers in Oklahoma are running at normal to above-normal 

levels, the only exception being streams in the panhandle that are 

running well-below normal.  Streamflows in the northeast quarter of

the state are well-above normal.  In the southeast, streamflows are 

above normal.  The western half of the state is experiencing normal

streamflows.

  

Reservoirs in Oklahoma have, on average, 89 percent of the flood

control storage currently available. In the Red River system the 

reservoirs have 95 percent of flood control storage available.  

 

The Climate Prediction Center's outlooks are calling for increased 

chances (33-40%) of above-normal temperatures in areas northeast of 

Oklahoma City.  In the remainder of the state the outlook calls for 

even greater chances (40-50%) of above-normal temperatures. The 

precipitation outlook for this spring (MAR-APR-MAY) calls for 

increased chances (33-40%) of below-normal precipitation for the

entire state. The U.S. Drought Monitor shows abnormally-dry 

conditions to moderate drought in the panhandle and along the 

borders with Texas.  The remainder of the state is not experiencing

drought conditions.  The CPC Drought Outlook indicates the potential

for persistent or intensifying drought conditions in the panhandle 

and along the borders with Texas.  The outlook calls for no change 

in drought related conditions in the remainder of the state.

 



   *******************************************************

   *                                                     *

   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    *

   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            *

   *                                                     *

   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php     *

   *                                                     *

   *******************************************************

 

				TEXAS 

 

The potential for flood conditions in north Texas will be near normal 

this spring. Flooding in north Texas usually occurs in response to 

specific precipitation events.  There are currently no indications of 

extreme hydrologic conditions to alter the flood potential of the 

area. 



Precipitation across northern Texas has generally been below normal 

during the last 90 days. Precipitation totals increase slightly, as a 

percent of normal, from west to east along the Red River. 

Precipitation totals in the panhandle have been normal to slightly

above normal.    

 

Soil moisture conditions across northern Texas are generally near 

normal for this time of year.  In the panhandle, soil moisture is 

near normal except for the extreme northwest corner of the panhandle

where soil moisture conditions are below normal.  The Red River is 

flowing at normal to below-normal levels.  Tributaries of 

the Red River in the Texas panhandle are flowing at well-below normal

levels for this time of year.  Streamflows along the Red River 

increase as a percent of average from west to east.  The upper Red

River is at normal streamflow while the lower Red River is well-above

normal.  Reservoirs in the Red River and Canadian River drainages in

Texas have an average of 102 percent of the flood control pool still

available.  

 

The Climate Prediction Center's outlook for the next three months 

(MAR-APR-MAY) calls for increased chances (33-40%) of below-normal 

precipitation throughout north Texas and the Texas panhandle.  

The outlook also calls for increased chances (40-50%)of above-normal 

temperatures in north Texas. In the panhandle, there is an even 

greater chance (>50%) of above-normal temperatures. 



The U.S. Drought Monitor shows abnormally dry conditions in the Red

River Valley of north Texas.  The panhandle is more varied.  The 

northwest corner of the panhandle is experiencing moderate drought

conditions and the perimeter of the panhandle is abnormally dry.  

The central panhandle around Amarillo however is not experiencing

drought conditions at this time.  The CPC Drought Outlook indicates 

drought related conditions are expected to develop or intensify in 

the panhandle and the western Red River Valley over the next two 

months.   

 

Thanks to USGS for streamflow condition data, USACE for reservoir 

condition data and NRCS for SNOTEL data.  

 

   ******************************************************* 

   *                                                     * 

   *   This, and additional Water Supply Information,    * 

   *         can be found on our Web Page at:            * 

   *                                                     * 

   *    www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php     * 

   *                                                     * 

   ******************************************************* 

 

$$ 

 











             



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