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Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service, ABRFC, Tulsa, Oklahoma
408 PM CST, Thursday, March 6, 2008
COLORADO
-- ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN--
The Rocky Mountains
The potential for flood conditions will be above normal this spring.
Flooding at most forecast points in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado
is driven by rapid snowpack runoff or isolated, high-intensity
rainfall. The large snowpack points toward wetter than average
hydrologic conditions, this is reflected in the increased likelihood
of flooding shown in the ESP model.
The mountains of the Arkansas River basin have experienced
approximately 136 percent of average precipitation and have
accumulated 161 percent of average snowpack this water year (a more
detailed table is included below). This water-year's precipitation,
to date, is about 155 percent of last year's. At the end of January,
average contents of the mountain reservoirs in the Arkansas River
basin were 39 percent of capacity. This represents 105 percent of
average storage and 117 percent of last year's storage.
S N O W - P R E C I P I T A T I O N U P D A T E
Based on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites
As of WEDNESDAY: March 5, 2008
--------------------------------------------------------------------
BASIN ELEV. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT TOTAL PRECIPITATION
Data Site Name (Ft) % %
Current Average Avg Current Average Avg
--------------------------------------------------------------------
ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN
APISHAPA 10000 14.8 6.6 224 12.2 9.6 127
BRUMLEY 10600 12.6 8.1 156 15.4 10.9 141
FREMONT PASS 11400 17.5 13.3 132 16.8 12.7 132
PORPHYRY CREEK 10760 20.6 13.1 157 17.8 12.4 144
SOUTH COLONY 10800 27.3 15.1 181 28.5 19.4 147
WHISKEY CK 10220 11.5 8.5 135 14.7 12.6 117
----- -----
Basin wide percent of average 161 136
Units = inches for the Current and Average Snow Water Equivalent and
Total Precipitation values
The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates the mountains of southeastern
Colorado are not experiencing any drought conditions. Through the
spring months (MAR-APR-MAY), the Climate Prediction Center outlooks
indicate increased chances (40-50%) of experiencing above-normal
temperatures and increased chances (33-40%) of below-normal
precipitation for the same period.
Current conditions represent slightly wetter than normal conditions
above Pueblo and Trinidad Reservoirs. The ESP model indicates a
greater than 50 percent chance of flooding at only one forecast
point (Canon City). The table below contains a summary of the
most probable maximum stages from the model output.
Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
As of Wednesday: March 5, 2008
March 5 - July 2, 2008
Weekly
Flood 50% exceedance 50% exceedance
Station Stage(ft) Maximum Stage (ft) Maximum Stage (ft)
------------------------------------------------------------------
Leadville 5.0 4.2 3.9
Salida 9.0 6.5 6.0
Wellsville 9.0 7.4 7.0
Parkdale 9.0 7.3 6.5
Canon City 9.0 9.7 9.2
Portland 9.0 6.8 6.2
Pueblo 8.0 6.8 6.3
The Southeastern Plains
The potential for flood conditions will be above normal this spring.
Normal conditions for southeastern Colorado reflect a low probability
of flooding. Conditions in the plains of southeast Colorado have not
changed significantly since the flood outlook issued February 21,
2008. However, the snowpack in the mountains has increased and
elevated the likelihood of flooding at some of the downstream
forecast points on the plains.
There is light snowpack east of the Rocky Mountains. Soil moisture
in most of southeast Colorado is normal with values between the 30th
and 70th percentiles. In the extreme southeast corner of Colorado
soil moisture levels are below normal (20-30th percentiles).
Rainfall for the last 90 days has been normal to slightly above
normal north of the Arkansas River and normal to below normal in the
southeastern corner of Colorado. The Arkansas River is generally
flowing at normal levels while Fountain Creek is flowing at normal
to above-normal levels.
The ESP model indicates a greater than 50 percent chance of flooding
at only one forecast point (La Junta). The table below shows the
probability of flooding during the next 120 days at 4 forecast points.
Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
As of Wednesday: March 5, 2008
Fcst. Point % Probability % Probability % Probability
Station Minor Flooding Moderate Flooding Major Flooding
ID
ARCC2 Not Expected Not Expected Not Expected
LXHC2 67 12 6
LAPC2 17 7 6
LMAC2 8 4 3
The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates drought conditions in the plains of
southeastern Colorado range from abnormally dry to moderate drought.
According to the Climate Prediction Center's U.S. Seasonal Drought
Outlook, drought conditions along the Colorado-Kansas-Oklahoma
tri-state border region are expected to persist or intensify over the
next 2 months.
*******************************************************
* *
* This, and additional Water Supply Information, *
* can be found on our Web Page at: *
* *
* www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php *
* *
*******************************************************
NEW MEXICO -- CANADIAN RIVER BASIN
The spring flood potential outlook for northeastern New Mexico
remains normal. Flooding in New Mexico is generally driven by rapid
snowmelt runoff or high-intensity rainfall. While mountain snowpack
points toward wetter than average hydrologic conditions, these do not
necessarily indicate an increased, long-term potential for spring
flooding. There are currently no indications of extreme hydrologic
conditions to alter the flood potential of the area.
The Sangre De Cristo Mountains mark the headwaters of the Canadian
River in New Mexico. Those mountains have experienced about 123
percent of average precipitation this water year. They have
accumulated 151 percent-of-average snowpack (a more detailed
table is included below). Ninety-day precipitation totals in the
plains are below normal ranging from from 25-75 percent of
average. The local minimum is less than 25 percent of average near
Capulin.
S N O W - P R E C I P I T A T I O N U P D A T E
Based on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites
As of WEDNESDAY: March 6, 2008
------------------------------------------------------------------
BASIN ELEV. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT TOTAL PRECIPITATION
Data Site Name (Ft) % %
Current Average Avg Current Average Avg
------------------------------------------------------------------
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAIN RANGE BASINS
CULEBRA #2 10500 14.8 10.7 138 10.6 10.8 98
ELK CABIN 8210 4.1 3.9 105 8.3 8.5 98
GALLEGOS PEAK 9800 12.4 9.9 125 14.1 11.7 121
NORTH COSTILLA 10600 11.0 4.8 229 14.4 9.9 145
RED RIVER PASS #2 9850 11.8 6.8 174 10.8 8.1 133
TOLBY 10180 10.7 7.1 151 13.1 10.1 130
TRINCHERA 10860 13.2 8.3 159 13.1 9.3 141
WESNER SPGS 11120 16.9 13.1 129 17.8 15.2 117
----- -----
Basin wide percent of average 151 123
Soil moisture in northeastern New Mexico is normal in the mountains.
It is near normal in the plains along the mountains and decreases to
a local minimum in the 10-20th percentile near the Texas border. The
Canadian River and its headwaters are flowing at above-normal levels
(75th percentile) in the mountains. Streamflow in the plains is
well-below normal with streamflows below the 25th percentile.
At the end of February, Conchas Reservoir contents were 33 percent
of conservation pool.
Through the spring (MAR-APR-MAY), the Climate Prediction Center is
indicating increased chances (40-50%) of above-normal temperatures.
They also indicate an increased chance (33-40%) of below-normal
precipitation over that period.
The U.S. Drought monitor indicates the plains of northeast New
Mexico are abnormally dry with areas of moderate drought near the
Texas-Oklahoma border. The mountains are not experiencing drought
conditions at this time. The Climate Prediction Center's US Seasonal
Drought Outlook calls for drought conditions in the plains to develop
or intensify over the next two months. The outlook calls for no
changes in drought related conditions in the mountains.
The table below contains a summary of the most probable maximum
stages from the ESP model output.
New Mexico Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
As of Wednesday: March 5, 2008
Mar8-Jul5 50% Exceedance
Maximum weekly
Station Maximum Stage (ft) Stage (ft)
------------------------------------------------------------------
Vermejo Riv @ Dawson 4.5 3.7
Cimarron Riv @ Cimarron 1.4 1.0
Mora Riv @ Golondrinas 2.1 2.0
*******************************************************
* *
* This, and additional Water Supply Information, *
* can be found on our Web Page at: *
* *
* www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php *
* *
*******************************************************
SOUTHERN KANSAS
The potential for flood conditions in southern Kansas will be normal
this spring. Most flooding in Kansas is directly related to specific
precipitation events. Therefore, currently wet conditions do not
necessarily indicate an increased potential for spring flooding.
Conditions are not significantly different than those recorded in the
flood outlook of February 21, 2008.
Rainfall during the last 90 days has been variable across southern
Kansas. A local minimum of less than 50 percent of average exists in
the extreme southwest corner of the state. South-central Kansas has
received well-above-average rainfall in that period with totals
ranging from 125-400 percent of average. Southeast Kansas has had
normal to slightly above-normal rainfall for this period. Recent
rains have resulted in increased streamflows in south-central and
southeast Kansas.
Soil moisture across southern Kansas varies in a pattern similar to
the 90-day precipitation totals. A soil moisture minimum (<30th
percentile) exists in the extreme southwest corner of the state.
The remainder of the western third of southern Kansas has normal
soil moisture. The eastern two-thirds of southern Kansas has
above-normal soil moisture (70th-90th percentiles) that increases
toward the northeast and toward north-central Oklahoma.
Streamflow percentiles increase from west to east across southern
Kansas. In southwest Kansas, streamflows are below normal. In
south-central Kansas streamflows are normal to above normal. Recent
rains in southeastern Kansas have raised streamflows there to well-
above-normal conditions.
Reservoir storage in southern Kansas is approximating average
conditions. U.S. Corps of Engineers data indicates that Corps
projects in southern Kansas currently have an average of 93 percent
of their flood control storage available at this time.
Through the spring months (MAR-APR-MAY), the Climate Prediction
Center's outlook for southern Kansas calls for increased chances
(33-40%) of experiencing above-normal temperatures. The outlook calls
for a greater chance (40-50%) of above-normal temperatures for the
extreme southwest corner of the state. The outlook also indicates
increased chances (33-40%) of below-normal precipitation for the same
period.
The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates abnormally dry to moderate
drought conditions exist in southwestern Kansas at this time. These
conditions give way to non-drought conditions as one moves from west
to east across southern Kansas. The Climate Prediction Center's US
Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for drought conditions in western
Kansas to intensify or persist for the next 2 months. CPC indicates
no change in drought related conditions in the remainder of southern
Kansas.
The table below presents information for Dodge City forecast points
where the model indicates a chance of flooding. Unlike last year at
this time, there is no substantial snowpack in the plains of
Colorado or western Kansas. Current model output indicates that
chances of minor flooding in western Kansas are low (< 12%).
Select Points in Western Kansas
Kansas Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
As of Wednesday: March 6, 2008
Fcst. Point % Probability % Probability % Probability
Station Minor Flooding Moderate Flooding Major Flooding
ID
COOK1 7 3 Not Expected
BETK1 4 3 Not Expected
RCNK1 5 4 3
ZENK1 12 11 9
Most flooding in south-central and southeast Kansas is also related
to specific rainfall events. Currently elevated river stages and
saturated soils caused the ESP model to show elevated probabilities
of flooding for the eastern two-thirds of southern Kansas. The ESP
model reflects currently wet conditions but these short-term
conditions do not necessarily indicate an above normal potential for
spring flooding over the next 3 months. If the region experiences
average climatic conditions, river stages and soil moisture should
return to more typical conditions as the spring unfolds.
The table below presents some Wichita and Topeka forecast points for
which ESP indicated a greater than 40% chance of minor flooding.
Again, this is not an extreme condition and does not necessarily
reflect an above-average risk of flooding over the next 3 months.
Select Points in South-central and Southeast Kansas
Kansas Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
As of Wednesday: March 6, 2008
Fcst. Point % Probability % Probability % Probability
Station Minor Flooding Moderate Flooding Major Flooding
ID
CBNK1 40 Not Expected Not Expected
CTWK1 50 26 Not Expected
FLRK1 61 2 Not Expected
PLYK1 60 13 14
PPFK1 58 43 Not Expected
WFDK1 45 26 Not Expected
EMPK1 62 36 Not Expected
EPRK1 43 41 Not Expected
NEOK1 57 12 Not Expected
*******************************************************
* *
* This, and additional Water Supply Information, *
* can be found on our Web Page at: *
* *
* www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php *
* *
*******************************************************
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
The potential for flood conditions in southwestern Missouri will be
near normal this spring. Most flooding in southwest Missouri is
related to specific rainfall events. Therefore, currently wet
conditions do not necessarily indicate an increased risk of spring
flooding. Conditions are slightly wetter than those reported in the
Spring Flood Outlook of February 21st but do not constitute a
significantly greater potential for spring flooding.
Rainfall over the last 90 days has been above average to well-above
average across southwest Missouri. Soil moisture in southwestern
Missouri is currently above normal (70th-90th percentile). Stream
flow in that part of the state is well above normal.
Through the spring months (MAR-APR-MAY), the Climate Prediction
Center's outlook for southwestern Missouri calls for increased
chances (33-40%) of experiencing above-normal temperatures. The
outlook also indicates increased chances (33-40%) of below-normal
precipitation for the same period.
The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates there are no drought conditions
in southwestern Missouri at this time. The Climate Prediction
Center's US Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for no changes in
drought conditions over the next 2 months.
*******************************************************
* *
* This, and additional Water Supply Information, *
* can be found on our Web Page at: *
* *
* www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php *
* *
*******************************************************
ARKANSAS
The potential for flood conditions in western Arkansas will be
near normal this spring. Except for the mainstem of the Arkansas
River, flooding in western Arkansas usually occurs in response to
specific precipitation events. The Arkansas River may flood in
response to upstream conditions. There are currently no indications
of extreme hydrologic conditions to alter the flood potential of the
area. Therefore, currently wet conditions do not necessarily
indicate an increased potential for spring flooding.
Ninety-day precipitation totals across western Arkansas have
generally been average to well-above average. Precipitation totals
increase from near average in the southwest to well-above average in
the northwest. There is a local maximum in excess of 300 percent of
average in the northwest corner of the state.
Soil moisture across western Arkansas follows a pattern similar to
the 90-day precipitation totals. It is well-above normal in the
northwest (>90th percentile), above normal in west-central Arkansas,
and normal in the southwest part of the state. Recent
rains have generated significant stream flows across western
Arkansas. Rivers and streams are flowing at above-normal levels in
the southwest parts of the state and are well-above normal in the
remainder of western Arkansas. Corps of Engineers projects in
western Arkansas have, on average, 94 percent of their flood control
capacity available at this time.
The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting increased chances
(33-40%) of above-normal temperatures this spring (MAR-APR-MAY).
The outlook calls for greater chances (40-50%) of above-normal
temperatures over the same period. The U.S. Drought Monitor shows no
part of Arkansas is experiencing drought. The CPC Drought Outlook
does not indicate any change in drought related conditions this
spring.
*******************************************************
* *
* This, and additional Water Supply Information, *
* can be found on our Web Page at: *
* *
* www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php *
* *
*******************************************************
OKLAHOMA
The potential for flood conditions in Oklahoma will be near normal
this spring. Flooding in Oklahoma usually occurs in response to
specific precipitation events. There are currently no indications of
extreme hydrologic conditions to alter the flood potential of the
area.
For the past 90 days rainfall amounts varied greatly across
Oklahoma. The western panhandle alone ranged from 25-50 percent of
average precipitation in the west to above-average rainfall
(125-200% or average) in the east. The Red River Valley received
below-normal precipitation while the remainder of the state
got relatively normal rainfall amounts.
Soil moisture in the extreme western panhandle is below normal
(20-30th percentiles) for this time of year. Soil moisture in the
remainder of the state is generally above normal to well-above
normal for this time of year. Soil moisture in the Red River valley
and the eastern border of the Texas panhandle is near normal.
In north-central Oklahoma, soil moisture is well-above normal with a
local maximum exceeding the 95th percentile.
Streams and rivers in Oklahoma are running at normal to above-normal
levels, the only exception being streams in the panhandle that are
running well-below normal. Streamflows in the northeast quarter of
the state are well-above normal. In the southeast, streamflows are
above normal. The western half of the state is experiencing normal
streamflows.
Reservoirs in Oklahoma have, on average, 89 percent of the flood
control storage currently available. In the Red River system the
reservoirs have 95 percent of flood control storage available.
The Climate Prediction Center's outlooks are calling for increased
chances (33-40%) of above-normal temperatures in areas northeast of
Oklahoma City. In the remainder of the state the outlook calls for
even greater chances (40-50%) of above-normal temperatures. The
precipitation outlook for this spring (MAR-APR-MAY) calls for
increased chances (33-40%) of below-normal precipitation for the
entire state. The U.S. Drought Monitor shows abnormally-dry
conditions to moderate drought in the panhandle and along the
borders with Texas. The remainder of the state is not experiencing
drought conditions. The CPC Drought Outlook indicates the potential
for persistent or intensifying drought conditions in the panhandle
and along the borders with Texas. The outlook calls for no change
in drought related conditions in the remainder of the state.
*******************************************************
* *
* This, and additional Water Supply Information, *
* can be found on our Web Page at: *
* *
* www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php *
* *
*******************************************************
TEXAS
The potential for flood conditions in north Texas will be near normal
this spring. Flooding in north Texas usually occurs in response to
specific precipitation events. There are currently no indications of
extreme hydrologic conditions to alter the flood potential of the
area.
Precipitation across northern Texas has generally been below normal
during the last 90 days. Precipitation totals increase slightly, as a
percent of normal, from west to east along the Red River.
Precipitation totals in the panhandle have been normal to slightly
above normal.
Soil moisture conditions across northern Texas are generally near
normal for this time of year. In the panhandle, soil moisture is
near normal except for the extreme northwest corner of the panhandle
where soil moisture conditions are below normal. The Red River is
flowing at normal to below-normal levels. Tributaries of
the Red River in the Texas panhandle are flowing at well-below normal
levels for this time of year. Streamflows along the Red River
increase as a percent of average from west to east. The upper Red
River is at normal streamflow while the lower Red River is well-above
normal. Reservoirs in the Red River and Canadian River drainages in
Texas have an average of 102 percent of the flood control pool still
available.
The Climate Prediction Center's outlook for the next three months
(MAR-APR-MAY) calls for increased chances (33-40%) of below-normal
precipitation throughout north Texas and the Texas panhandle.
The outlook also calls for increased chances (40-50%)of above-normal
temperatures in north Texas. In the panhandle, there is an even
greater chance (>50%) of above-normal temperatures.
The U.S. Drought Monitor shows abnormally dry conditions in the Red
River Valley of north Texas. The panhandle is more varied. The
northwest corner of the panhandle is experiencing moderate drought
conditions and the perimeter of the panhandle is abnormally dry.
The central panhandle around Amarillo however is not experiencing
drought conditions at this time. The CPC Drought Outlook indicates
drought related conditions are expected to develop or intensify in
the panhandle and the western Red River Valley over the next two
months.
Thanks to USGS for streamflow condition data, USACE for reservoir
condition data and NRCS for SNOTEL data.
*******************************************************
* *
* This, and additional Water Supply Information, *
* can be found on our Web Page at: *
* *
* www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php *
* *
*******************************************************
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