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Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service, ABRFC, Tulsa, Oklahoma
1030 AM CST, Thursday, March 12, 2009
COLORADO
-- ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN--
The Rocky Mountains
The potential for flood conditions will be near normal this spring.
Flooding at most forecast points in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado
is driven by rapid snowpack runoff or isolated, high-intensity
rainfall.
The mountains of the Arkansas River basin have experienced
approximately 96 percent of average precipitation and have
accumulated 104 percent of average snowpack this water year (a more
detailed table is included below). This water-year's precipitation,
to date, is about 71 percent of last year's. At the end of February,
average contents of the mountain reservoirs in the Arkansas River
basin were 32 percent of capacity. This represents 93 percent of
average storage and 99 percent of last year's storage.
S N O W - P R E C I P I T A T I O N U P D A T E
Based on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites
As of WEDNESDAY: March 11, 2009
--------------------------------------------------------------------
BASIN ELEV. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT TOTAL PRECIPITATION
Data Site Name (Ft) % %
Current Average Avg Current Average Avg
--------------------------------------------------------------------
ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN
APISHAPA 10000 5.8 6.9 84 9.4 10.0 94
BRUMLEY 10600 10.8 8.5 127 11.3 11.3 100
FREMONT PASS 11400 16.5 13.8 120 14.1 13.2 107
PORPHYRY CREEK 10760 12.9 13.7 94 11.1 12.9 86
SOUTH COLONY 10800 16.1 15.6 103 17.8 19.9 89
WHISKEY CK 10220 10.0 8.9 112 12.7 13.1 97
----- -----
Basin wide percent of average 104 96
Units = inches for the Current and Average Snow Water Equivalent and
Total Precipitation values
The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates the mountains of southeastern
Colorado are experiencing abnormally dry conditions below the
highest elevations. Through the spring months (MAR-APR-MAY),
the Climate Prediction Center outlooks indicate increased chances
(40-50%) of experiencing above-normal temperatures and slightly
increased chances (33-40%) of below-normal precipitation for the
same period.
Current conditions represent slightly drier than normal conditions
above Pueblo and Trinidad Reservoirs, except at the highest
elevations. The ESP model does not indicate a greater than 50
percent chance of flooding at any forecast point. The table below
contains a summary of the most probable maximum stages from the model
output.
Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
As of Wednesday: March 11, 2009
March 11 - July 8, 2009
Weekly
Flood 50% exceedance 50% exceedance
Station Stage(ft) Maximum Stage (ft) Maximum Stage (ft)
------------------------------------------------------------------
Leadville 5.0 3.7 3.5
Salida 9.0 5.8 5.4
Wellsville 9.0 6.5 6.1
Parkdale 9.0 5.7 5.3
Canon City 9.0 8.7 8.2
Portland 9.0 5.5 5.1
Pueblo 8.0 6.7 6.2
The Southeastern Plains
The potential for flood conditions will be near normal this spring.
Normal conditions for southeastern Colorado reflect a low probability
of flooding. Conditions in the plains of southeast Colorado have not
changed significantly since the flood outlook issued February 26,
2009.
Visible satellite images show no snowpack east of the Rocky Mountains.
Soil moisture in the plains of southeast Colorado near the Kansas
border is normal with values between the 30th and 70th percentiles.
However, soil moisture becomes below normal (20th to 30th percentiles)
near the foothills of the mountains. Precipitation for the last
90 days has been below normal with the precipitation deficit ranging
from 25 to 50 percent of average across the region. The Arkansas River
is generally flowing at normal to slightly below-normal levels while
Fountain Creek is flowing at normal to below-normal levels.
The ESP model indicates a greater than 50 percent chance of flooding
at only one forecast point (La Junta). The table below shows the
probability of flooding during the next 120 days at 4 forecast points.
Colorado Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
As of Wednesday: March 11, 2009
Fcst. Point % Probability % Probability % Probability
Station Minor Flooding Moderate Flooding Major Flooding
ID
ARCC2 18 12 7
LXHC2 53 10 7
LAPC2 17 8 5
LMAC2 11 4 3
The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates drought conditions in the plains of
southeastern Colorado range from abnormally dry to moderate drought
(D1). According to the Climate Prediction Center's U.S. Seasonal
Drought Outlook, drought conditions across southeast Colorado are
expected to persist or intensify over the next 3 months.
*******************************************************
* *
* This, and additional Water Supply Information, *
* can be found on our Web Page at: *
* *
* www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php *
* *
*******************************************************
NEW MEXICO -- CANADIAN RIVER BASIN
The potential for Spring flooding for northeastern New Mexico is
normal. Flooding in New Mexico is generally driven by rapid
snowmelt runoff or high-intensity rainfall. There are currently
no indications of extreme hydrologic conditions to alter the flood
potential of the area.
The Sangre De Cristo Mountains mark the headwaters of the Canadian
River in New Mexico. Those mountains have experienced about 101
percent of average precipitation this water year. They have
accumulated 101 percent-of-average snowpack (a more detailed
table is included below). Ninety-day precipitation totals in the
eastern plains are significantly below normal ranging from from
10-50 percent of average.
S N O W - P R E C I P I T A T I O N U P D A T E
Based on Mountain Data from NRCS SNOTEL Sites
As of WEDNESDAY: March 11, 2009
------------------------------------------------------------------
BASIN ELEV. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT TOTAL PRECIPITATION
Data Site Name (Ft) % %
Current Average Avg Current Average Avg
------------------------------------------------------------------
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAIN RANGE BASINS
CULEBRA #2 10500 13.9 11.0 126 8.5 11.2 76
GALLEGOS PEAK 9800 9.7 10.3 94 12.0 12.0 100
NORTH COSTILLA 10600 6.4 5.0 128 12.5 10.2 123
RED RIVER PASS #2 9850 8.8 7.0 126 9.1 8.3 110
TOLBY 10180 7.0 7.6 92 9.7 10.4 93
TRINCHERA 10860 8.1 8.6 94 10.5 9.5 111
WESNER SPGS 11120 10.8 13.6 79 13.5 15.7 86
----- -----
Basin wide percent of average 101 101
Soil moisture in northeastern New Mexico is normal in the mountains.
It is near normal in the eastern plains, as well. The Canadian River
and its headwaters are flowing at above-normal levels
(75th percentile) in the mountains. Streamflow in the plains is
well-below normal with streamflows below the 25th percentile.
At the end of February, Conchas Reservoir contents were 26 percent
of conservation pool.
Through the spring (MAR-APR-MAY), the Climate Prediction Center is
indicating increased chances (40-50%) of above-normal temperatures.
They also indicate an increased chance (40-50%) of below-normal
precipitation over that period.
The U.S. Drought monitor indicates the plains of northeast New
Mexico are abnormally dry with areas of moderate drought near the
Texas-Oklahoma border. The mountains are not experiencing drought
conditions at this time. The Climate Prediction Center's US Seasonal
Drought Outlook calls for drought conditions in the plains to persist
over the next three months. The outlook calls for no changes in
drought related conditions in the mountains.
The table below contains a summary of the most probable maximum
stages from the ESP model output.
New Mexico Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
As of Wednesday: March 11, 2009
Mar11-Jul11 50% Exceedance
Maximum weekly
Station Maximum Stage (ft) Stage (ft)
------------------------------------------------------------------
Vermejo Riv @ Dawson 4.0 3.4
Cimarron Riv @ Cimarron 1.5 1.0
Mora Riv @ Golondrinas 1.6 1.4
*******************************************************
* *
* This, and additional Water Supply Information, *
* can be found on our Web Page at: *
* *
* www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php *
* *
*******************************************************
SOUTHERN KANSAS
The potential for flood conditions in southern Kansas will be normal
this spring. Most flooding in Kansas is directly related to specific
precipitation events. Therefore, currently dry conditions do not
necessarily indicate an decreased potential for spring flooding.
Conditions are not significantly different than those recorded in the
flood outlook of February 26, 2009.
Rainfall during the last 90 days has been variable across southern
Kansas, but has generally been below average. Much of southwest
Kansas received less than 25% of average. South-central Kansas has
received near 50% of average rainfall. Southeast Kansas has had
normal to slightly below-normal rainfall for this period. Recent
rains have resulted in slightly increased streamflows in
south-central and southeast Kansas.
Soil moisture across southern Kansas varies with a maximum (80-90
percentile) east of Dodge City. The remainder of southern Kansas
has normal (30-70 percentile) to slightly above normal (70-80
percentile) soil moisture. Soil moisture is slowly decreasing due to
the recent dry conditions.
Streamflow percentiles increase from west to east across southern
Kansas. In southwest Kansas, streamflows are below normal. In
south-central Kansas streamflows are near normal. Recent rains in
southeastern Kansas have raised streamflows there to normal or
above-normal conditions.
Reservoir storage in southern Kansas is approximating average
conditions. U.S. Corps of Engineers data indicates that Corps
projects in southern Kansas currently have an average of 98 percent
of their flood control storage available at this time.
Through the spring months (MAR-APR-MAY), the Climate Prediction
Center's outlook for southern Kansas calls for equal chances
(near 33%) of experiencing above-normal, normal, or below-normal
temperatures. The outlook calls for a greater chance (33-40%) of
above-normal temperatures for the southwest corner of the state. The
outlook also indicates increased chances (33-40%) of below-normal
precipitation across southwest Kansas, and equal chances across the
remainder of southern Kansas.
The U.S. Drought Monitor currently indicates abnormally dry to
moderate drought (D1) conditions exist in southwest and south-central
Kansas. Non-drought conditions exist across southeast Kansas. The
Climate Prediction Center's US Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for
drought conditions in the western half of Kansas to persist or develop
for the next 3 months. CPC indicates no change in drought related
conditions in the remainder of southern Kansas.
The table below presents information for Dodge City forecast points
where the model indicates a chance of flooding. Current model output
indicates that chances of minor flooding in western Kansas are low
(< 13%).
Select Points in Western Kansas
Kansas Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
As of Wednesday: March 11, 2009
Fcst. Point % Probability % Probability % Probability
Station Minor Flooding Moderate Flooding Major Flooding
ID
COOK1 8 4 Not Expected
BETK1 Not expected Not expected Not Expected
ENWK1 12 4 Not expected
RCNK1 5 4 3
ZENK1 8 6 4
Most flooding in south-central and southeast Kansas is also related
to specific rainfall events. Currently slightly elevated river
stages and increased soil moisture caused the ESP model to show
slightly elevated probabilities of flooding for the eastern
two-thirds of southern Kansas. The ESP model reflects currently wet
conditions but these short-term conditions do not necessarily
indicate an above normal potential for spring flooding over the next
3 months. If the region experiences average climatic conditions,
river stages and soil moisture should return to more typical
conditions as the spring unfolds.
The table below presents some Wichita and Topeka forecast points
where the ESP model indicated a greater than 20% chance of minor
flooding. Again, this is not an extreme condition and does not
necessarily reflect an above-average risk of flooding over the next
3 months.
Select Points in South-central and Southeast Kansas
Kansas Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
As of Wednesday: March 11, 2009
Fcst. Point % Probability % Probability % Probability
Station Minor Flooding Moderate Flooding Major Flooding
ID
CBNK1 54 4 Not Expected
ARKK1 25 8 Not Expected
CNUK1 51 26 2
ATOK1 25 7 Not Expected
CTWK1 45 Not expected Not Expected
EREK1 53 38 25
FLRK1 45 2 Not Expected
FRNK1 40 10 Not Expected
IDPK1 33 Not Expected Not Expected
OSWK1 59 37 8
OXFK1 25 17 4
PLYK1 48 19 Not Expected
PPFK1 62 49 Not Expected
WFDK1 32 21 8
EMPK1 62 32 Not Expected
EPRK1 45 43 Not Expected
NEOK1 53 48 Not Expected
*******************************************************
* *
* This, and additional Water Supply Information, *
* can be found on our Web Page at: *
* *
* www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php *
* *
*******************************************************
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
The potential for flood conditions in southwestern Missouri will be
near normal this spring. Most flooding in southwest Missouri is
related to specific rainfall events. Therefore, current conditions
do not necessarily indicate an increased or decreased risk of spring
flooding. Conditions are similar to those reported in the
Spring Flood Outlook of February 26, 2009.
Rainfall over the last 90 days has been below average to near
average across southwest Missouri. Soil moisture in southwestern
Missouri is currently near normal (30-70th percentile). Stream
flow in that part of the state is near to slightly below normal.
Through the spring months (MAR-APR-MAY), the Climate Prediction
Center's outlook for southwestern Missouri calls for equal chances
(33%) of experiencing above-normal, normal, or below-normal
temperatures. The outlook also indicates equal chances (33%) of
above-normal, normal, or below-normal precipitation for the same
period.
The U.S. Drought Monitor indicates there are no drought conditions
in southwestern Missouri at this time. The Climate Prediction
Center's US Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for no changes in
drought conditions over the next 3 months.
*******************************************************
* *
* This, and additional Water Supply Information, *
* can be found on our Web Page at: *
* *
* www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php *
* *
*******************************************************
ARKANSAS
The potential for flood conditions in western Arkansas will be
near normal this spring. Except for the mainstem of the Arkansas
River, flooding in western Arkansas usually occurs in response to
specific precipitation events. The Arkansas River may flood in
response to upstream conditions. There are currently no indications
of extreme hydrologic conditions to alter the flood potential of the
area. Therefore, current conditions do not necessarily indicate an
increased or decreased potential for spring flooding.
Ninety-day precipitation totals across western Arkansas have
generally been average to below average, although a small area of
northwest Arkansas saw around 125% of average precipitation.
Soil moisture across western Arkansas is generally below normal.
The southwest, northwest, and areas near the Oklahoma border show
soil moisture anomalies in the 10-30th percentile. Central Arkansas
soil moisture is near normal (30-70th percentile). Recent
rains have generated significant stream flows across west-central
Arkansas. Rivers and streams are flowing at below-normal levels in
the remainder of western Arkansas. Corps of Engineers projects in
western Arkansas have, on average, 96 percent of their flood control
capacity available at this time.
The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting equal chances of
above-normal, near normal, or below-normal temperatures this spring
(MAR-APR-MAY). The outlook calls for greater chances (33-40%) of
below-normal precipitation across southwest Arkansas. The U.S.
Drought Monitor shows southwest Arkansas is experiencing abnormally
dry conditions. The CPC Drought Outlook does not indicate any change
in drought related conditions this spring.
*******************************************************
* *
* This, and additional Water Supply Information, *
* can be found on our Web Page at: *
* *
* www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php *
* *
*******************************************************
OKLAHOMA
Although Oklahoma was very dry this winter, the potential for flood
conditions in Oklahoma will be near normal this spring. Flooding in
Oklahoma usually occurs in response to specific precipitation events.
There are currently no indications of extreme hydrologic conditions
to alter the flood potential of the area.
For the past 90 days rainfall amounts varied greatly across
Oklahoma. Rainfall across western Oklahoma was less than 25% of
average. Much of central Oklahoma saw 25-50% of average precipitation,
while much of eastern Oklahoma received 50-75% of average.
Soil moisture is generally near normal (30-70th percentile) across
the northern half of Oklahoma. Southward, soil moisture conditions
deteriorate rapidly, with south-central Oklahoma soil moisture below
the 10th percentile.
Streams and rivers in Oklahoma are running at normal to below-normal
levels. Streamflows in the eastern, southern, and northwest Oklahoma
are below normal. The remainder of Oklahoma is experiencing normal
streamflows.
Reservoirs in Oklahoma have, on average, 99 percent of the flood
control storage currently available. In the Red River system the
reservoirs have 100 percent of flood control storage available.
The Climate Prediction Center's outlooks are calling for increased
chances (33-40%) of above-normal temperatures in western and
southern Oklahoma. The precipitation outlook for this spring
(MAR-APR-MAY) calls for increased chances (33-40%) of below-normal
precipitation for the same areas. The U.S. Drought Monitor shows
abnormally-dry conditions to severe drought (D2) across all but
northeast Oklahoma. The most severe drought conditions are across
southwest Oklahoma. The CPC Drought Outlook indicates the potential
for persistent or intensifying drought conditions in western Oklahoma,
with some improvement possible in south-central parts of the state.
The outlook calls for no change in drought related conditions in the
remainder of the state.
*******************************************************
* *
* This, and additional Water Supply Information, *
* can be found on our Web Page at: *
* *
* www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php *
* *
*******************************************************
TEXAS
The potential for flood conditions in north Texas will be near normal
this spring, despite the current dry conditions. Flooding in north
Texas usually occurs in response to specific precipitation events.
There are currently no indications of extreme hydrologic conditions
to alter the flood potential of the area.
Precipitation across northern Texas has generally been much-below
normal during the last 90 days. Areas in the eastern panhandle
received 10-25% of their average precipitation. The remainder of
northern Texas saw less than 50% of the average rainfall.
Soil moisture conditions across parts northern Texas are extremely
dry. The panhandle is near normal (30-70th percentile). Soil
moisture conditions deteriorate rapidly toward north-central Texas,
where soil moisture anomalies are below the 10th percentile. The
Red River is flowing at below-normal levels east of Burkburnett.
Tributaries of the Red River in the Texas panhandle are flowing at
near normal levels for this time of year. Reservoirs in the Red
River and Canadian River drainages in Texas have an average of
126 percent of the flood control pool still available.
The Climate Prediction Center's outlook for the next three months
(MAR-APR-MAY) calls for increased chances (33-40%) of above-normal
temperatures throughout north Texas and the Texas panhandle. These
chances are even higher (40-50%) near the New Mexico border. The
outlook also calls for increased chances (40-50%) of below-normal
precipitation across north Texas.
The U.S. Drought Monitor shows abnormally dry to severe drought (D2)
conditions across north Texas. Most of the panhandle is
experiencing moderate drought. The north-central and northwest parts
of Texas are in severe drought. Northeast Texas is abnormally dry.
The CPC Drought Outlook indicates drought related conditions are
expected to persist or intensify in the panhandle and the western
Red River Valley over the next few months. The Outlook does show
the possibility of some improvement across north-central Texas.
Thanks to USGS for streamflow condition data, USACE for reservoir
condition data and NRCS for SNOTEL data.
*******************************************************
* *
* This, and additional Water Supply Information, *
* can be found on our Web Page at: *
* *
* www.srh.noaa.gov/abrfc/WaterSupply/index.php *
* *
*******************************************************
$$
|
- National Weather Service
- Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center
- 10159 E. 11th Street, Suite 300
- Tulsa, OK 74128-3050
- Page Author: ABRFC Webmaster
- Web Master's E-mail: sr-abrfc.webmaster@noaa.gov
- Page last modified: 7-Jan-2010 5:39 PM UTC