ABRFC River StatusWARNING: RAW MODEL OUTPUT -- Please read and understand the following disclaimer on the use of this information.
Important Disclaimer: This service provides RAW MODEL, SHORT-TERM ENSEMBLE guidance from the latest run of the ABRFC river forecast system. These data are NOT to be construed as official forecast products, because ABRFC official forecast products may differ significantly from the raw model output due to many reasons. Raw model output always requires forecaster review, and often requires significant modification before release as an official river forecast product.
The raw model guidance provided here is based on two types of forecast precipitation (QPF) input of varying durations. These are the official WPC forecaster-produced (deterministic) QPF, and WPC's algorithmically-produced probabilistic QPF at various percentile values. The percentile value is the percent chance of precipitation accumulating less than the depicted amount on their linked maps. 100 minus the percentile is the chance of precipitation exceeding the depicted amount on their linked maps. It is this exceedance level that is depicted in the hydrographs on these pages. For example, the probabilistic QPF shown at the 90th percentile has only a 10% chance of being exceeded, while the runoff resulting from that QPF has only a 10% or lower chance of being exceeded.
The summary map on this page gives a quick look at the flood status for each river basin based on all ensemble members. Detailed hydrographs of each ensemble member and its associated precipitation input can be accessed from the regional pages by clicking on the map below.
These data are provided primarily for coordination purposes - to give a fast "heads up" of potential flood problem areas immediately after a forecast model run, coordinate QPF, etc.
|National Weather Service
Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center