Every year
we receive inquiries regarding our chances for a "White
Christmas."
As you can imagine, the definition
of a White Christmas can vary, depending on who you
ask. For
some, a solid snow cover on Christmas Day under bright blue New Mexico
sunshine
would qualify. For others, it means seeing snowflakes
on Christmas Day regardless of whether there's snow on the ground.
And for the snow hounds, it means seeing snowflakes and having
snow on the ground! Regardless of which definition you prefer,
the chances of a White Christmas are quite variable across the state.
Photo by Becky Ramotowski
In Albuquerque and other lower elevation
locations
across
central
and northern
New Mexico, the chances for a White Christmas
are not good, as shown in the image below (produced by the National Climatic
Data Center).
The image depicts the probability
of having at least one inch of snow on the ground on Christmas Day. At
the Albuquerque International Airport, for example, a Christmas Day snowfall
(measurable) has occurred, on average, once or twice a decade during
the 110-year period of record. You can check out the national
probabilities from the National Climatic Data Center.
Obviously, the
higher in elevation and farther north you are in New Mexico, the better
your chances for experiencing a White Christmas. But just how much better? The table
below shows the various probabilities for a half dozen communities:
Red River (RED), Grants (GNT), the Albuquerque International Airport (ABQ), Clayton
(CAO), Tucumcari (TCC) and Roswell (ROW).
Probability of having
at least 1 inch of snow on the ground
71%
10%
4%
5%
8%
2%
Probability of seeing
snowflakes and having any snow on the ground
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
Average high temperature
37
46
46
46
53
55
Average low temperature
7
14
23
19
24
24
It's important to note that the period of record varies greatly among these
stations, which makes it difficult to make any significant conclusions.
However, generally speaking, winter storms that track across central
or southern New Mexico, and tap low level moisture from the Gulf of
Mexico, tend to produce the heaviest and most widespread snows, particularly
over the eastern plains. This may explain the fact that the probability
of seeing snowflakes in Roswell is similar to Albuquerque. The chances
of 1" or more of snow on the ground on Christmas Day in the Albuquerque
Metro Area appears to range from 1 in about 15 in the Valley to 1 in
5 in the Foothills and 1 in 3 or 4 for the East Mountain Communities
(Sandia Park, Cedar Crest).
High elevation snow
pack across northern and central New Mexico as of December
25th was generally 100% to 135% of normal. Snow pack is
more below normal across the Mimbres river basin.
Another period of unsettled weather is impacting New Mexico this week.
A trough of low perssure crossed the state on Christmas Day,
but light snow accumulations were confined to areas already with
snow on the ground. Thus a White Christmas has been confined
to the higher terrain over the northwest third of New Mexico. The
third storm of the week will swing through the state Friday night into
Saturday.
The 2007 Christmas Day snow cover, as
well as the Christmas Day snow cover for the previous six years, is
depicted in the charts
below. The Winter of 2007-2008 was quite variable across the state,
with above normal snowfall over the northwest, but well below normal
precipitation over the southeast half of the state. Christmas
Day 2007 saw a fast moving storm bring snow to much of eastern
New Mexico. In 2006, Christmas Day fell between two major snow storms
in New Mexico.
Widespread
snow coverage of less than 2 inches was observed on Christmas Day.
Snow fell across portions
of New Mexico on Christmas Day of 2007. The following morning, Gerald
White of San Jon
captured an image of the "Day After Christmas" snow..
The tables above and graphics below help to show
that for New Mexico, the higher the terrain, the greater the chance of
at least
one
inch of
snow
on the ground. For most of the high elevations, the chances of snow on
the ground (50 to 80%) exceed the chances of seeing it snow (15 to 20%).
For locations at lower elevations, such as Albuquerque, Roswell, Clovis
and Gallup, the probability of seeing snow (9-15%) exceeds the chances
of having an inch of snow on the ground (2-12%). The graphics below also
illustrate how variable the snow cover can be from year to year.
Here are the "Snow on Christmas" events
from the Albuquerque International Airport (since 1939) and from historical
records for the Albuquerque area (1900-1938).
2000s
2007
A fast-moving storm
brought snow to the state on Christmas and by late evening,
much of the eastern plains had new snow on the ground as well
as gusty north to northeast winds producing blowing snow and
drifts.
2006
Limited areas across
the Northeast Highlands received a few inches of snow on Christmas
Day, and Cloudcroft received a trace. In Albuquerque, however,
the big snow waited for a few days after Christmas, when a
record 16.3 inches fell over a two-day period on December 29
and 30.
2003
Temperatures statewide
were near or above normal with generally quiet weather. A
disturbance clipped northern New Mexico on the 26th, bringing
light rain and high elevation snow showers to the northern
and west central mountains. No significant snow accumulations
were observed.
2002
A storm system affected
the Land of Enchantment from late on the 22nd through the 24th. This
storm moved slowly over southern California to northern Baja
on the 22nd, then turned northeast toward New Mexico. The
storm brought a trace of snow to Albuquerque on Christmas Eve.
2000
A white Christmas indeed.
Light snow fell across the Albuquerque Metro Area on Christmas
Day, but temperatures were just a little too warm for it to
accumulate. Only trace amounts were measured at the airport
and along the foothills. However, it was a different
story Christmas night and the day after (26th). A strong
storm intensified as it moved over central New Mexico, dumping
6.1 inches of snow at Albuquerque's airport on the 26th. The
foothills reported 7 inches, while the East Mountain communities
were buried in 8 to 10 inches of snow.
1990s
1999
It snowed 1.0 inch between 7AM and noon
on Christmas Day at the Albuquerque Foothills NE weather observation
station. A mix of rain and snow was observed a the airport
totaling 0.02 inches of precipitation for the day.
1997
Only a trace of snow
remained on the ground at the airport on Christmas Day from
the stormy period of December 20-23. Snow depth
at Albuquerque Foothills NE was 6 inches.
1990
There was 1" of
snow at the airport on Christmas Day. This was left over
from a storm a few days earlier. Christmas was
cold, with a high temperature of 28 and a low of zero. This
was the first event at the new Albuquerque Foothills NE weather
station. At that location (near Tramway/Montgomery),
snow depth from earlier storms was 11" at 5 PM on the
24th, and still 9" at 5 PM on Christmas Day.
1980s
1987
It snowed 0.4" on
Christmas Eve. Flurries fell on Christmas Day with
a high temperature of 25 degrees.
1983
It
snowed 0.8" on Christmas Day.
1982
A trace of snow fell on Christmas Day
but melted as the temperature reached 39 degrees.
1970s
1975
It snowed 0.3" on
the night before Christmas.
1974
It began snowing Christmas
afternoon. Just over half an inch (0.6") had
accumulated at the airport by late afternoon, and the storm
total was 3.5" when the event ended later that night.
1960s
1962
It snowed 1" on Christmas Day.
1950s
1957
It snowed 2.9" on the night before
Christmas at the airport, and probably more than that over
most of the city. This event was probably pretty close
to the "ideal" white Christmas portrayed in the movies.
1952
It snowed 0.2" on the 21st, 0.6" on
the 23rd, and 0.1" on Christmas Eve. It didn't snow
on Christmas Day but the high temperature was only 29 (the
low was 14). Consequently, the ground was still "somewhat" white.
1940s
1948
A trace of snow fell on Christmas Day.
1945
A trace of snow fell
on Christmas Day.
1930s
1939
It snowed 0.3" at
the airport on Christmas Day. Once again, other areas
of the city (or what is now the city) probably had more.
1920s
1924
It snowed 3" on the 24th. Snow
remained pretty much intact on Christmas Day as the high temperature
was 21 and the low was 8 below zero.
1923
A trace of snow fell on Christmas Day.
1910s
1914
It snowed 6" from
7 AM till 7 PM on Christmas Eve. Since the weather station
was near downtown at that time, the area that now represents
the Far Northeast Heights and Foothills probably got buried
in that one!
1911
It snowed 2" from
6 AM till 10 AM on Christmas Day with the temperature
hovering at 30 degrees.
1900s
1901
A trace
of snow fell on Christmas Day.
1905
It snowed
1" on Christmas Day. The high temperature
was 29 and the low was 4.
National Weather Service
Albuquerque Weather Forecast Office
2341 Clark Carr LP SE
Albuquerque, NM 87106
Ph: 505.243.0702
Web Master's Email: ABQ Webmaster
Page Author: WFO Albuquerque, NM
Date modified:
www.srh.weather.gov 
National
Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
){kind=link}