The 2006 fire season was a fairly active
one but, in hindsight, it can be
considered a “near miss” in terms of catastrophic large acre
timber fire activity across northern New Mexico. The most active areas
(see Fig. 1) were found across the eastern Plains and southwest mountains.
Large, fast-moving grass fires were the dominant fire regimes across
the east while larger timber fires were found across the Gila country.
Fig 1. Large fire locations for New Mexico through 11/26/06. Image from
Southwest Coordination Center.
Fig 2. Sandia Park campaigning for snow! Photo by B. Wachter
Many fuel and fire weather related ingredients
came together to make 2006 one of the most active seasons in recent history.
The initial"set up" occurred during the winter of 2004-2005,
especially from January through March, when well
above
normal
precipitation
was
observed across the state. The eastern Plains also saw a fairly robust
July and August
thunderstorm season. The abundant precipitation provided a significant
grass crop across the mountainous areas of New Mexico, as well as the
eastern half of the state. This abundant precipitation was followed by
one of
the
driest
2005-2006 Winter and 2006 Spring periods on record. The situation led
many people to hope for more precipitation (Fig. 2)! The lack of
winter
and
spring
precipitation
led to artificially
dry heavier fuels
and
also
lessened
or
eliminated the
significant grass or fine fuel green-up. This combination of antecedent
dry, heavier fuels and the lack of a significant green up period led
to a longer burn window - with a start date of February.
This represented an early
start to the main fire season which normally runs from late May to
early July.
There were, however, some “fly in
the ointment” considerations
which likely mitigated the 2006 fire season potential.
One was the March 11th-12th winter storm event which
affected the western half of the state (Fig. 3).
This event
was a cool season event which blanketed much of the mid and higher
elevations with significant snow accumulations. Following this event,
the snow
melted slowly, thus absorbing into the heavier dead and down fuels
such as logs and tree limbs as well as increased soil moisture levels.
Fig 3. Snow accumulations from the March 11-12, 2006 snow storm. Photo
by B. Wachter.
A second mitigating factor was the
short periods of moisture intrusions from both
the east and south which ultimately
led to some sporadic thunderstorm events across the mountainous areas.
The results of these moisture intrusions are tracked by the solid black
line on the Energy Release Component Chart below (Fig. 4). The thunderstorms
not only provided light to moderate precipitation but
also
increased
mountain
cloud cover.
The
increase
in
cloud cover
reduced
evaporation rates across the surface landscape. This result ultimately
lessened duff layer drying which normally occurs during the May to
mid June period from lower elevations to higher elevations as the snow
cover
melts. Even with the notable lack of snow cover and a much shortened
and/or non-existent green up period, the duff (leaf/needle cast) layer
is a primary
contributor to surface fire spread. The periodicity and/or timeliness
for which these moisture intrusions occurred may have tipped
the scale
in providing a less than robust large fire growth period during the
mid April to May period when heightened
initial attack activity was recorded by the various fire districts
but timber fires tended to be on the smaller side (<100 acres). Grass
fires, on the other hand, across eastern New Mexico grew to be
much larger thanks to the erratic and gusty nature to the thunderstorm
winds
and
the sporadic nature to the rainfall receipts from individual storms.
Fig 4.
Energy Release Component chart for 2006, as compared to the average,
the maximum, and the 1996 record.
The last mitigating factor was
the earlier start of the summer thunderstorm season, especially as compared
to the past few years.
This ultimately led to an overall rise in 24 hour surface humidities
(both day and especially nighttime readings) and gradually moistened
up the lighter
surface fuels. This higher surface moisture also combined to increase
thunderstorm coverage across western and central portions of the state
as well as provided
wetter thunderstorms which ultimately led to the moistening of larger
fuels. The initial start of the thunderstorm season (June 24th to July
7th) was kicked off
by a fairly robust back door cold front which slid down the eastern
Plains and ultimately pushed itself westward across New Mexico. The upper
ridge
subsequently
built over the region which in turn provided abundant moisture transport
from the Gulf of Mexico and subtropical Pacific. This provided a moisture
recycling feedback which continued in the form of wetter thunderstorms.
Periodic surface moisture intrusions from both the east and south also
aided this feedback response during the earlier half of July. Northwest
areas of the state were the last to see this significant moistening
effect. This led to a much reduced or non-existent fire activity
period
during the latter half of July.
The summer thunderstorm season lasted through the first half
of September with all areas receiving above normal precipitation. The
eastern Plains
were slow to get started in terms of significant/widespread rainfall
but saw more widespread precipitation during the latter half of August
into early
September as the center of the upper ridge migrated east of the state
several times. During this period fire activity, both wildfire
and prescribed burn, was either non-existent or very brief
and small across the state.
The summer
rainy season quickly turned into a mid-fall pattern the latter half
of September as a few cool season storm systems moved across the
state. These systems provided upper elevation snow accumulations and
brought widespread mid to upper elevation freezes. This in turn started
the curing and dormancy of the finer fuels, and led to an
influx of project or prescribed burns across portions of the state during
the
October to mid November period. The larger fuels throughout
most of central and northern New Mexico, however, were considered
wet and did not burn so well. This result was site specific and
depended on the character of the earlier summer thunderstorm activity.
Storms
which produced heavy rain but moved through quickly did not affect
the heavier fuels as much as storms which produced moderate rain but
over a longer time span. Heavier storms which trained over an area
during a longer time frame led to some summer flood events.
With the exception of pile burning and a few small project
burns, the fire season essentially came to an end across northern and
central portions
of New Mexico when a cool season storm system blanketed areas with snow
during late November.
The Southwest Coordination Center
(SWCC) wildfire acreage numbers through November 28th revealed that
nearly 600,000
acres
burned
during
2006.
This is the highest statewide wildfire acreage total since SWCC has been
keeping records (2000-2006). The last two significant fire years in
terms of acreage burned were 2002 (424,710 acres) and 2000 (519,177 acres).
Much of the 2006 acreage totals were comprised of grass fires across
the East.
Significant fire weather events were also numerous during the 2006
year with 195 zone based Red Flag Warnings issued. This number represents
the highest total issued since 2002 (see Figs. 5 and 6). The number
of spot weather forecasts completed by the Albuquerque office was also
up compared to the past couple of years with 624 completed (Fig. 7).
That number represents the 4th highest total since 1995.
Fig. 5. Red Flag Warning Verification
Fig.6. Red Flag Warnings issued
Fig.7. Spot Forecasts Completed
Notable wildfires across the state included
several early season fires which broke out across the southeast Plains,
particularly the Tatum area during a critical fire weather event on
January 1st. The
McDonald Fire (92,390 acres) broke out within the Lovington fire district
during a critical fire weather event on March 12th. The period from
March 7th to 15th was particularly windy across the eastern half of the
state with several Red Flag warnings issued. The first incident management
team (IMT-2) was sent to the state on April 12th to help manage the
Ojo
Feliz Fire which burned nearly 17,000 acres northwest of Las Vegas.
Subsequent IMT fires followed with the 115 acre Garley Fire (east slopes
of Mt Taylor)
between May 19th to 23rd, Skates Fire (north of Silver City) between
June
2nd to 27th and Anderson Fire (northwest of Mountainair) between June
6th to 10th. Critical fire weather and fuel conditions lined up the
latter half of June with several significant timber wildfires seen across
the
east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mountains and the Gila country.
Notable events include the Reserve Complex which grew to 15,436 acres
and had a Type
1
team assigned to it, as well as the Bear Fire which grew to 51,307
acres between June 19th to July 4th. The Rivera Mesa fire (16,114 acres)
northwest of Las Vegas broke out on June 16th and was subdued by a moisture
intrusion
from the north and east June 24th and 25th.
Bear Fire
Ojo Feliz Fire
National Weather Service
Albuquerque Weather Forecast Office
2341 Clark Carr LP SE
Albuquerque, NM 87106
Ph: 505.243.0702
Web Master's Email: ABQ Webmaster
Page Author: WFO Albuquerque, NM
Date modified:
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Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
