National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

The first two weeks of November were unseasonably mild with little or no measurable precipitation nearly statewide.

The driest area of the state during October was the western third of New Mexico where monthly precipitation was generally well below normal. Above normal precipitation for October extended from the mid Rio Grande Valley north into the Northern Mountains and also extended east into the northeast New Mexico Plains.

Driest areas during September were the far eastern border counties and the Four Corners region. Elsewhere September precipitation was near to above normal for the month. A few places even experienced near record rainfall during September.

The September precipitation total of 6.49 inches at the Pecos National Monument was a new record for September, beating the old record of 6.32 inches set way back in 1931. Just north of Pecos, in the village of Gascon, the monthly precipitation total of 5.59 inches was the second highest for any September since observations started in 1954.

The current U.S. Drought Monitor map depiction of drought for New Mexico can be found at: the Drought Monitor web site.

The Cibola National Forest mountainair ranger district continues the closure of New Canyon and Tajique campgrounds...near the villages of Torreon and Tajique...due to damages sustained from the 2008 Big Spring fire.

The Four Corners experienced their fourth consecutive month of below average rainfall during October. From July through October the Farmington Agricultural Science Center received just 1.19 inches of rain, well below their normal of 4.09 inches. Navajo Dam reported 2.21 inches of precipitation from July through October, while their average precipitation for the period is 6.39 inches

Through October 2009, sites with significant three month precipitation deficits (August through October) within the state included:

Western New Mexico	3 Month Total	Deficit
Farmington Ag Center	1.04	2.11
Lordsburg 4SE	2.89	1.14
Fruitland	0.84	1.72
Navajo Dam	1.72	2.44
Fence Lake	3.04	2.88
Chaco Canyon N/M	2.18	1.26
Grants	2.53	2.03

 

Eastern New Mexico	3 Month Total	Deficit
Carlsbad	1.91	3.24
Picacho	3.21	4.74
Roswell	2.65	2.44
Tatum	4.05	2.26
Fort Sumner 5S	4.21	1.84

 

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The near-uniformly dry conditions in the spring of 2008 left several regions with significant precipitation deficits through the first six months of last year. Drought conditions extended across much of the southeast two-thirds of the state by early July of 2008. Despite the near normal to abundant summer precipitation in most areas of the state, parts of Union County and far northeast Colfax County still reported moderate precipitation deficits as of the end of August. Persistent dry conditions in the northern portions of the state through November resulted in the continuation of a abnormally dry classification across north central and northeast New Mexico. By late November abnormally dry conditions spread to the northwest corner of the state. A snowy December over the northwest and north central areas eased the dry conditions, while the dry weather persisted in the northwest. The abnormally dry conditions spread south over most of the eastern plains by January and over southern portions of the state in February. The abnormally dry conditions continued over the east and south in February and March, and by May and June much of the area had deteriorated to moderate drought with severe drought in the southeast. Despite the general lack of rainfall in August 2009...June through August 2009 precipitation was above normal in the eastern border counties and in select locations in the northwest and southwest mountain regions of New Mexico. September precipitation was better than normal across much of New Mexico...with the exception of the four corners region and parts of The east central and southeast plains where the dryness of august persisted.

 

The precipitation outlook for the winter (December through February) would favor southern New Mexico for above normal precipitation during the ongoing El Niño episode.

The three most recent El Niño events (2002/2003, 2004/2005, and 2006/2007) generated above normal winter precipitation for northern New Mexico as well as the southern half of the state. The current El Niño episode is expected to be a moderate to strong event, and will likely persist through this winter and possibly into the spring of 2010.

For the latest weather forecast for the northern two thirds of New Mexico, please see the NWS WFO Albuquerque Forecast Map.

Reservoir storage is above normal at Abiquiu Lake, El Vado Lake, and Costilla Lake, while water levels were near normal at Heron Lake, Eagle Nest Lake and Navajo Lake. Well below normal storage persists at Conchas Lake, Elephant Butte Lake, Bluewater Lake, Santa Rosa Lake, Sumner Lake and Caballo Lake.

This product will be updated in late November, or sooner if necessary in response to significant changes in weather, water supply or drought conditions.

The U.S. Drought Monitor is a multi-agency effort involving the NOAA National Weather Service and National Climatic Data Center, the USDA, State and Regional Climate Centers and the National Drought Mitigation Center. Information for this statement has been gather from the NWS and FAA observations sites, state cooperative extension services, the U.S. Geological Survey and other government agencies.